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Volatility Hunter | NEBIUS, Alibaba, and Tencent Face Key Earnings Tests! How to Accurately Monetize IV Premium During Earnings Season?

Hello fellow investors, welcome to a new episode of the 'Futubull Volatility Hunter' column!

This week, the market is about to witness earnings releases from three heavyweight companies: one of the Neocloud giants, $NEBIUS (NBIS.US)$ , the e-commerce and cloud behemoth $Alibaba (BABA.US)$ , and the social media and gaming leader $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ 。Whether it's the massive partnership orders NEBIUS has secured with major firms, the progress of Alibaba's AI commercialization efforts, or Tencent's pricing power across its business lines, these are all key points to watch in this earnings season.

At the same time, significant expectation gaps are precisely what cause options volatility to spike. Next, options sir will outline a time-sensitive options strategy centered around volatility premiums for fellow investors, combining forward-looking insights on these three companies’ earnings and their IV structures.—whether you're interested in these three companies and looking to open positions at lower prices, or if you already hold shares but are worried about potential price drops during the earnings period, this episode is not to be missed!

This Week’s Popular Earnings Calendar

[May-13 Pre-market] NEBIUS (NBIS)

For NEBIUS, achieving high growth is almost a certainty. Its annual recurring revenue (ARR) for the fourth quarter of 2025 has already reached $1.2 billion, with total quarterly revenue at $228 million—both key metrics surpassing the company’s prior forecasts.

However, the options market is currently betting not on 'whether there will be growth,' but rather 'how fast the growth pace will be.' NEBIUS currently holds two mega-orders: one worth $27 billion from Meta and another worth $17.4 billion from Microsoft. In business operations, signing contracts does not equate to immediate cash inflow. Therefore, the actual revenue figures for the first quarter will directly reflect how quickly these two orders convert into tangible performance.

[05-13 HK After Market] Tencent (00700)

By comparison, Tencent's earnings dynamics this quarter are entirely focused on the real outcomes of its foundational technology investments and commercial conversion. The core focus of its financial results has shifted from the basic social and gaming businesses to the efficiency with which AI tools like large models empower core operations. Investors are closely monitoring two key indicators: first, the actual revenue contribution from AI-related businesses; second, Tencent’s capital expenditure (Capex) scale in the AI sector amid fierce competition for computing power infrastructure, as well as guidance on its subsequent investment pace.

[05-13 US Pre-Market] Alibaba (BABA)

To address fierce competition in food delivery and AI tech R&D, the market expects the company’s adjusted net profit to decline significantly, while total revenue is still projected to grow by approximately 4.5%, reaching around RMB 247.09 billion. Since the sharp profit contraction is already an 'open secret,' investor attention has shifted to marginal improvements in the business—whether the growth rate of the traditional e-commerce segment can stabilize, and whether initiatives like 'Taobao Flash Purchase' can effectively alleviate profit pressures on the core business. On the other hand, the market broadly anticipates that Alibaba Cloud’s revenue will reach approximately RMB 42.2 billion, with year-on-year growth expected to soar further to 40%. Against the backdrop of efforts to stabilize losses in traditional e-commerce and new retail, all eyes will be on whether Alibaba Cloud can withstand pressure and deliver better-than-expected AI-driven incremental results, making it another focal point of this earnings report.

IV Structure Analysis

Nebius IV Structure: Reference data as of May 11

Nebius (NBIS)：The three-digit IV (105.2%) is a strong signal for option sellers, which implies the market anticipates potentially significant price movements for this stock in the near future. The IV percentile at 86% confirms that current volatility is at a relatively high point within the past year. The IV/HV ratio of 1.13 indicates the market has added approximately 12% risk premium on top of an already elevated realized volatility. In other words, not only are the options expensive, but the stock itself is also experiencing substantial fluctuations.

Tencent IV Structure: Reference data as of May 11

Tencent (00700): Tencent's current implied volatility (IV) is at a relatively high level over the past year — the IV percentile has reached 87%, meaning that only about 13% of trading days in the past year saw more expensive option pricing. The ratio of IV to historical volatility (HV) is 1.07 times, indicating that the 'future volatility pricing' given by the market is only about 7% higher than the actual volatility that occurred in the past. This premium level is considered rational, mainly due tothe earnings disclosure window period and normal risk compensation brought by macro-level uncertainties between China and the US. For option sellers, this state of being 'expensive but not outrageous' is actually quite ideal. If subsequent volatility does not truly amplify, the option premium will smoothly decline, allowing sellers to collect time value; even if volatility does occur, sellers won't face an entirely unexpected shock.

Alibaba IV Structure: Reference data as of May 11

Alibaba (BABA): Among the three target stocks, Alibaba presents an interesting characteristic:Its IV/HV ratio is the highest, reaching 1.32x. This means the market's pricing for Alibaba’s future volatility is about one-third higher than its actual volatility over the past 30 days.

Meanwhile, Alibaba's IV percentile is at 77%, which, although still high, is slightly lower than the other two companies.This creates a relatively balanced opportunity for option sellers: on one hand, the option premium is high enough for sellers to collect decent premiums; on the other hand, the IV isn't at an extreme level where it might plummet at any moment, providing operators with a relatively wider time window.The formation of this premium structure has two main reasons: first, event-driven premiums brought by the upcoming earnings disclosure window; second, the overall expectation that Chinese stocks are undergoing a valuation system restructuring, with the market pricing in this layer of structural uncertainty for Alibaba.

Limited-time high IV premium option strategy

NEBIUS (NBIS)

Sell Put Strategy Reference

Reference Strike Price: $155 (anchored below MA20 $160.27)

Reference expiration date: 2026-05-15

Reference Premium: approximately $332.5 per contract, equivalent to reducing holding cost by $3.325 per share (actual price can be checked in the Futubull app: individual stock—options chain)

Covered Call Strategy Reference

Reference Strike Price: $200 (about 5% above the upper Bollinger Band $190.80, leaving sufficient buffer space)

Reference expiration date: 2026-05-15

Reference Premium: approximately $430 per contract, equivalent to reducing holding cost by $4.3 per share (actual price can be checked in the Futubull app: individual stock—options chain)

Comprehensive scenario analysis of earnings

Alibaba (BABA)

Sell Put Strategy Reference

Reference strike price: $130 (Effective support level at MA50 around $131.78; sufficient buffer space reserved)

Reference expiration date: 2026-05-15

Reference premium: approximately $122 per contract, reducing holding cost by $1.22 per share (actual price can be checked in the Futubull app under individual stock—options chain)

Comprehensive scenario analysis of earnings

Tencent (00700)

Sell Put Strategy Reference

Reference strike price: HKD 420 (Anchored below the lower Bollinger Band at HKD 451.48 by about 5-8%, with sufficient safety buffer reserved)

Reference expiration date: 2026-05-22

Reference premium: approximately $110 per contract, reducing holding cost by $1.1 per share (actual price can be checked in the Futubull app under individual stock—options chain)

Comprehensive scenario analysis of earnings

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Risk Warning

An option is a contract that gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an asset at a fixed price at any time on or before a specific date. The price of an option is influenced by various factors, including the current price of the underlying asset, the strike price, the time to expiration, and implied volatility. Implied volatility reflects the market's expectation of the option’s volatility over a certain period in the future. It is derived inversely from the Black-Scholes (BS) pricing model and is generally considered an indicator of market sentiment. When investors expect greater volatility, they may be more willing to pay higher prices for options to help hedge risks, leading to higher implied volatility. Traders and investors use implied volatility to evaluate.Option priceto enhance attractiveness, identify potential mispricing, and manage risk exposure.

Disclaimer

This content is for reference only and should not be considered as an offer, solicitation, invitation, or advice to buy or sell any investment product or make any investment decision. It should also not be interpreted as professional advice. Options contracts are derivative products and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider your own investment experience, investment objectives, financial resources, and other relevant conditions before deciding whether to participate in such transactions. The risk of loss in trading options contracts can be substantial. In some cases, losses may exceed the initial margin deposited. Even if you have set contingent orders, such as 'stop-loss' or 'limit' orders, they may not prevent losses. Market conditions may render such orders unexecutable. You may be required to deposit additional margin within a short period. If you fail to provide the required amount within the specified time, your open positions may be liquidated. However, you will still be responsible for any shortfall in your account resulting from such liquidation. Therefore, before trading, you should study and understand index options and carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you based on your financial situation and investment objectives. If you trade options, you should be familiar with the procedures for exercising options and the rights and obligations upon expiration.

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