April 28 [Hong Kong Stock Podcast] Part-1 - Hang Seng Index, Wuxi Apptec, Galaxy Entertainment,

1. Hang Seng Index: Some investors indicated they will wait for a 200-point pullback before buying call warrants. Bearish investors said they added bear contracts in the last five minutes of trading, with a recovery price of 26,138 points.

The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,679 points on April 28, below the 5-day line at 25,932 points and the 10-day line at 26,101 points, also constrained by the 20-day line at 25,749 points and the 30-day line near 25,619 points. After a short-term rebound, it fell back again, showing a weakening consolidation trend.

Technically, the index still hasn't stabilized above multiple short- to medium-term moving averages. The range between 25,749 and 26,101 points forms a significant resistance zone. Support below is first seen at 25,367 points, followed by 24,743 points. Overall, the index remains range-bound without showing signs of a breakout.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 37, indicating weak momentum in the short term. The middle band of the Bollinger Bands is at 25,749 points, and as of April 28, the index was trading below the middle band, suggesting that the rebound lacks sustainability.

The short-term key level remains at 25,749 points. If the index fails to rise and stabilize above this level, followed by another challenge above 26,100 points, an uptrend will be hard to establish. A breakdown below 25,367 points could lead to further downside testing towards 24,743 points.

Some investors are waiting for a pullback of about 200 points before deploying call warrants. Based on the current position, if the index retreats approximately 200 points from 25,679 points to near 25,400 points, it would already be close to the support level at 25,367 points, which is at the edge of the technical support zone. This strategy aims to wait for a pullback to the support area before betting on a rebound, provided the index holds firm above the support and shows signs of stabilization.

Bearish investors added bear certificates during the last five minutes of trading with a stop-loss level at 26,138 points. This position is near the 10-day moving average and the upper resistance zone around 26,100 points, using resistance as a defensive measure. If the index fails to rise and break through the 26,100-point area, the bearish position can still be maintained; however, a move above 26,138 points would indicate a strengthening of the short-term trend, requiring strict risk management for related strategies.

Wuxi Apptec (02359.HK): Investors believe that if the stock stabilizes above HKD 140, it could continue rising to HKD 150. Some investors hold call warrants with a strike price of HKD 165.

On April 28, Wuxi Apptec closed at HKD 143.100, surging HKD 17.100 or 13.57%, breaking above the upper Bollinger Band at HKD 137.559 with a gap-up opening, signaling a clear short-term uptrend.

Technically, the stock price is above the 5-day moving average at HKD 127.480, the 10-day moving average at HKD 126.610, the 20-day moving average at HKD 125.185, the 30-day moving average at HKD 119.757, and the 60-day moving average at HKD 117.773, supporting a strong short-term trend. However, the closing price on April 28 was significantly above the upper Bollinger Band, reflecting an aggressive short-term rally, making the reward-to-risk ratio less favorable for new entries.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 85.955, a clearly overbought level, indicating strong upward momentum but also raising the possibility of a short-term pullback. Initial resistance is seen at HKD 148.000, followed by the psychological level of HKD 150. Support is first found at HKD 140, followed by HKD 137.559.

Some investors believe that as long as the stock holds above HKD 140, it could continue rallying towards HKD 150. From the current technical perspective, HKD 140 is indeed a crucial short-term support level. If the stock can hold above HKD 140 and stay above the upper Bollinger Band, there is potential for the stock to challenge the HKD 148 to HKD 150 range. However, a drop below HKD 140 would suggest weakening buying interest, warranting caution for a possible retest near HKD 137.559.

Investors holding call warrants with an exercise price of 165 yuan are bullish on the stock's continued strength. If the stock price can stabilize above 140 yuan and advance towards 148 to 150 yuan, there is still room for speculation in the call warrants. However, as the 165-yuan exercise price remains far from the closing price on April 28, coupled with the sharp rise in the underlying stock in the short term, if the stock fails to maintain its upward momentum or falls below 140 yuan, the time value and volatility risks of related products will significantly increase.

3. Galaxy Entertainment (00027.HK): Investors mentioned speculating on the May Day holiday, questioning whether there is a chance to reach 35 yuan. Some investors expressed that they would purchase call warrants if the price falls below 30 yuan, with an exercise price of 28.98 yuan.

Galaxy Entertainment closed at 32.700 yuan on April 28, continuing its decline and approaching the recent low of 32.600 yuan. The stock price is below the 5-day moving average of 33.480 yuan, the 10-day moving average of 34.192 yuan, the 20-day moving average of 34.743 yuan, and the 30-day moving average of 35.103 yuan, indicating weak short-term performance.

Technically, the stock price has been under prolonged pressure from multiple moving averages, reflecting an overall downward trend. The immediate resistance levels are at 33.534 yuan, followed by 34.743 yuan; support lies at 32.600 yuan, and a break below this level could lead to further weakness.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 22.759, which is weak and nearing oversold levels, providing potential for a technical rebound in the short term. However, until it breaks above 33.534 yuan, a reversal cannot be confirmed. The middle line of the Bollinger Bands is at 34.743 yuan, and the April 28 close was significantly below this, showing continued weakness.

Some investors expressed optimism about the May Day holiday, monitoring whether there’s a chance to reach 35 yuan. From the current technical position, to test 35 yuan, the stock must first stabilize above 32.600 yuan, then rise above 33.534 yuan, and subsequently break through 34.743 yuan to have the conditions to challenge the 35-yuan level. Until these resistances are broken, the short-term view remains one of a weak rebound.

Other investors stated they would buy call warrants only if the price falls below 30 yuan, with an exercise price of 28.98 yuan. The 30-yuan level is already below the current major support zone, and if the stock price drops below 30 yuan, it indicates a further expansion of the downtrend. At that point, even though the exercise price might be relatively close, signs of stabilization should first be observed; otherwise, such a strategy would carry higher risk.

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data and should not solely rely on this article to make trading decisions. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.

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