The resistance zone is testing buying power. Can Alibaba's short-term strength continue?

$BABA-W (09988.HK)$ Currently trading at 135.500 yuan, down over 1%. Early trading saw the price fluctuating between 135-138.2 yuan, with a relatively strong short-term trend. However, the stock price is now approaching the resistance zone of 136.797 to 137.900 yuan. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen to 74.658, indicating strong short-term momentum but also nearing the overheated region. Therefore, chasing higher at this stage requires caution regarding consolidation pressure at elevated levels.

From the comments, market sentiment appears generally optimistic, though divergence at higher levels is clearly increasing. Some investors remain highly confident about the future, believing that the stock could stabilize above 140 yuan and potentially target 150, 160 yuan, or even higher levels. Others feel that funds are still in play and the uptrend isn't over yet. Meanwhile, another group of investors has started worrying about profit-taking at higher levels, noting that the stock has already accumulated substantial gains in the short term. If the broader market is again weighed down by external news, Alibaba might experience a pullback first. Some have opted to wait for a dip to 130 yuan or lower before considering deployment. Overall, while market sentiment remains bullish, it has shifted from simply expecting further rises to focusing on whether higher levels can be sustained.

The most common questions in the market focus on several directions. First, whether this round of the stock’s rebound can truly break through 140 yuan, opening up higher upside potential. Second, whether it is still suitable to chase near the current price or wait for a pullback to around 130 yuan before making a move. Third, the market is also paying attention to fundamentals and news flow, including capital inflows, cash flow, new developments in operations, and thematic catalysts, which could continue to support the stock price. These questions reflect that at this stage, what investors care about most is not whether Alibaba has rebounded, but whether this rally can evolve into a more sustained upward trend.

Technically, 132.460 yuan remains the short-term inflection point. As long as the stock price holds above this level and breaks through 137.900 yuan, the short-term uptrend may continue. Conversely, if it fails to hold above 132.460 yuan, a test of support at 127.890 yuan should be monitored. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 74.658, showing significantly stronger short-term momentum, though nearing the overheated region. The middle line of the Bollinger Bands is at 125.710 yuan, with the current price notably above the midline and close to the upper band at 136.797 yuan, signaling an ongoing uptrend but with limited room for further upward movement. At this stage, the risk-reward ratio is moderately low. It is better to wait for confirmation of a breakout or observe buying power after a pullback before deploying.

Strategy One | Breakout and Follow the Trend

$BIALIBA@EC2607A.C (24561.HK)$ ｜Strike Price 165.10｜Actual Leverage 10.1x｜High leverage, slightly out-of-the-money; suitable for chasing momentum after confirming a breakout above 137.900, targeting short-term acceleration.

$UBALIBA@EC2607D.C (26262.HK)$ | Strike Price 165.10 | Actual Leverage 9.3x | Highly flexible but more stable than the most aggressive version, suitable for use as a main trend-following position after a breakout

$HUALIBA@EC2607A.C (24348.HK)$ | Strike Price 165.00 | Actual Leverage 8.8x | Explosive power remains, but easier to manage the rhythm, suitable for staged buying after a breakout

Strategy Two | Accumulate at Support on Pullback

$GJALIBA@EC2608B.C (25951.HK)$ | Strike Price 168.98 | Actual Leverage 8.3x | Suitable for accumulation near a supported level if it holds steady, betting on a continued rebound

$UBALIBA@EC2608D.C (26007.HK)$ | Strike Price 168.98 | Actual Leverage 7.7x | Balanced leverage and risk, suitable as an intermediate position once support is confirmed

$CTALIBA@EC2608D.C (26326.HK)$ | Strike Price 168.98 | Actual Leverage 8.0x | Quick response, suitable for short-term rebounds after holding steady, capturing the first leg of the bounce

Strategy Three | Hold patiently for continuation

$BIALIBA@EC2608E.C (26562.HK)$ | Strike Price 150.09 | Actual Leverage 6.5x | Closer to at-the-money, suitable for those optimistic about the trend continuation but wanting a less aggressive approach

$UBALIBA@EC2608F.C (26538.HK)$ | Strike Price 150.09 | Actual Leverage 6.2x | Steady pace, suitable for holding while the stock price slowly digests resistance at higher levels before moving upward again

$HSALIBA@EC2608F.C (26604.HK)$ | Strike Price 150.09 | Actual Leverage 6.3x | Can advance or retreat, suitable for medium-short term holding, waiting for a breakout to expand profit potential

Reply to some investors' views:

@Vicky大姐姐168If it can hold above $132.460, the short-term trend can still maintain a relatively strong pattern.

@炭治郎The market will focus on both the quality of investments and profitability, as these factors will influence investors' judgment on the sustainability of an upward trend.

@231847289If it can truly stabilize above $140, expectations for higher targets will naturally increase, but for now, the key is to break through $137.900 first.

@下个路口21If there is merely a weakening during trading but no breakdown below $132.460, the situation still indicates consolidation after a strong performance.

@上得山多終遇虎As the price approaches the resistance zone, concerns over another sharp drop are natural; in the short term, be mindful of the risks associated with consolidation at higher levels.

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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