English
Back
Open Account
HBM shortages drive up chip prices: Is the memory supercycle continuing?
Futubull Options Sir
joined discussion · Aug 25 19:21 ·

Options Sir Breaks Down Hot Topics | Samsung's Shareholder Proposal Falls Short of Expectations, Will It Impact Memory Stock Prices?

After a short-term rebound, the memory sector faced a significant correction again last night, $SK hynix (SKHY.US)$ down 4.92%, $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ down 5.83%, $SanDisk (SNDK.US)$ down 6.45%, briefly triggering market panic; however, memory stocks collectively bounced back in pre-market trading today: SK Hynix +2.82%, MU +1.98%, SNDK +2.76%,Stock prices are at a critical stage of bullish-bearish contention.
The direct factor triggering panic: Samsung's shareholder proposal fell short of expectations.
Samsung announced its shareholder return plan over the weekend, but it lacked the large-scale immediate stock buyback that the market had anticipated. The dividend payout ratio remained unchanged at 50%, with no increase.Previously, some memory chip companies had boosted investor confidence by signaling strong business prospects through increased dividends and share buybacks. On August 13, SanDisk announced at its Investor Day that it would return 100% of its post-reinvestment cash flow to shareholders, causing its stock price to rise by 13.67% that day. On August 19, SK Hynix announced a KRW 40 trillion buyback plan, with its stock closing up 0.2%. However,Samsung's "wait-and-see" approach in the details of its shareholder returns has reignited market scrutiny: concerns that earnings beats are already priced in, and whether high capital expenditures can translate into sustainable future returns.
Trading positions are crowded, but fundamentals remain unchanged.
Taking Micron as an example, from a fundamental perspective,The supply-demand dynamics in the memory sector have not changed for now; the fundamental tightness in orders remains intact. This pullback is purely technical/trading-driven.
However, regarding liquidity, it is worth noting that trading volume has shrunk following recent stock price gains, leading to crowded trading positions. With NVIDIA's earnings report imminent, the market is pulling back due to risk aversion. Additionally, some funds in the US stock market are flowing into the financial sector, presenting certain bearish factors.
After a short-term rebound, the memory sector faced a significant correction again last night, $SK hynix (SKHY.US)$ down 4.92%, $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ down 5.83%, $SanDisk (SNDK.US)$ down 6.45%, briefly triggering market panic; however, memory stocks collectively rebounded in pre-market trading today: SK Hynix +2.82%, Micron (MU) +1.98%, SanDisk (SNDK) +2.76%,Stock prices are at a critical stage of bullish-bearish contention.。 The direct factor triggering panic: Samsung's shareholder proposal fell short of expectations. Samsung announced its shareholder returns over the weekend, but there was no large-scale immediate stock buyback as the market had hoped, and the dividend payout ratio remained unchanged at 50%, with no increase.Previously, some memory companies had boosted investor confidence by increasing dividends and buybacks to signal strong business prospects. On August 13, SanDisk announced at its Investor Day that it would return 100% of its post-reinvestment cash flow to shareholders, causing its stock price to rise 13.67% that day; on August 19, SK Hynix announced a KRW 40 trillion buyback plan, with its stock closing up 0.2%. ButSamsung's "hold steady" stance on shareholder return details has reignited market scrutiny: concerns that earnings beat expectations have already been priced in, and whether high capital expenditures can translate into sustainable future returns. Crowded trading positions, but no change in fundamentals. Taking Micron as an example, from a fundamental perspective,The supply-demand dynamics in the memory sector have not changed temporarily, with tight orders...
Options Market: A critical juncture for the battle between bulls and bears, primarily focused on hedging risks and preparing to accumulate positions at the bottom.
We continue to use Micron as an example. In the options market, the put/call trading ratio has risen to 0.76, indicating short-term contention between bullish and bearish capital. The open interest ratio remains high at 1.14, suggesting a rise in long-term bearish hedging sentiment. Due to previous sharp rallies and declines, Micron's option Implied Volatility (IV) percentile is currently at 33%, a historically low level. However, the absolute IV value stands at 68.04%, which still reflects relatively high option pricing.
After a short-term rebound, the memory sector faced a significant correction again last night, $SK hynix (SKHY.US)$ down 4.92%, $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ down 5.83%, $SanDisk (SNDK.US)$ down 6.45%, briefly triggering market panic; however, memory stocks collectively rebounded in pre-market trading today: SK Hynix +2.82%, Micron (MU) +1.98%, SanDisk (SNDK) +2.76%,Stock prices are at a critical stage of bullish-bearish contention.。 The direct factor triggering panic: Samsung's shareholder proposal fell short of expectations. Samsung announced its shareholder returns over the weekend, but there was no large-scale immediate stock buyback as the market had hoped, and the dividend payout ratio remained unchanged at 50%, with no increase.Previously, some memory companies had boosted investor confidence by increasing dividends and buybacks to signal strong business prospects. On August 13, SanDisk announced at its Investor Day that it would return 100% of its post-reinvestment cash flow to shareholders, causing its stock price to rise 13.67% that day; on August 19, SK Hynix announced a KRW 40 trillion buyback plan, with its stock closing up 0.2%. ButSamsung's "hold steady" stance on shareholder return details has reignited market scrutiny: concerns that earnings beat expectations have already been priced in, and whether high capital expenditures can translate into sustainable future returns. Crowded trading positions, but no change in fundamentals. Taking Micron as an example, from a fundamental perspective,The supply-demand dynamics in the memory sector have not changed temporarily, with tight orders...
1. If you hold shares of memory chip stocks and wish to continue holding them
Sureby buying a put optionHedge against potential short-term downside risk. Although this requires capital to open the position, buying this "insurance" allows you to focus on other market opportunities with peace of mind. Storage stocks are highly volatile,Let's take buying an at-the-money Put option expiring in one month as an example:
The current price of this Put is approximately $68 per share, accounting for about 7.5% of the underlying stock's value. While you might feel that spending extra money to buy Puts is unnecessary, this Put can help hedge your losses if the underlying stock price drops within the month. Given the recent high volatility in storage stocks, if the stock price falls more than 7.5% in a month, the profits could even cover the cost of opening the position.Provides hedging protection for investors expecting a short-term pullback.
After a short-term rebound, the memory sector faced a significant correction again last night, $SK hynix (SKHY.US)$ down 4.92%, $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ down 5.83%, $SanDisk (SNDK.US)$ down 6.45%, briefly triggering market panic; however, memory stocks collectively rebounded in pre-market trading today: SK Hynix +2.82%, Micron (MU) +1.98%, SanDisk (SNDK) +2.76%,Stock prices are at a critical stage of bullish-bearish contention.。 The direct factor triggering panic: Samsung's shareholder proposal fell short of expectations. Samsung announced its shareholder returns over the weekend, but there was no large-scale immediate stock buyback as the market had hoped, and the dividend payout ratio remained unchanged at 50%, with no increase.Previously, some memory companies had boosted investor confidence by increasing dividends and buybacks to signal strong business prospects. On August 13, SanDisk announced at its Investor Day that it would return 100% of its post-reinvestment cash flow to shareholders, causing its stock price to rise 13.67% that day; on August 19, SK Hynix announced a KRW 40 trillion buyback plan, with its stock closing up 0.2%. ButSamsung's "hold steady" stance on shareholder return details has reignited market scrutiny: concerns that earnings beat expectations have already been priced in, and whether high capital expenditures can translate into sustainable future returns. Crowded trading positions, but no change in fundamentals. Taking Micron as an example, from a fundamental perspective,The supply-demand dynamics in the memory sector have not changed temporarily, with tight orders...
(The illustrative graphics shown on screen are for demonstration purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or guarantees; market conditions change frequently, and the displayed option prices do not reflect real-time data.)
2. If you believe in the fundamentals of storage stocks but are reluctant to enter the market at this moment
you canSell a Put option at the strike price below. Part of the option's value decays over time, and if the stock price stabilizes at the bottom without falling below the strike price upon expiration, you can keep the entire option premium as profit. If the option finishes in-the-money and is exercised, it means you need to buy the stock at the strike price. This is equivalent to entering the stock position at a lower price than the current market level, resulting in less loss compared to buying the underlying stock directly now, while also earning the option premium.
After a short-term rebound, the memory sector faced a significant correction again last night, $SK hynix (SKHY.US)$ down 4.92%, $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ down 5.83%, $SanDisk (SNDK.US)$ down 6.45%, briefly triggering market panic; however, memory stocks collectively rebounded in pre-market trading today: SK Hynix +2.82%, Micron (MU) +1.98%, SanDisk (SNDK) +2.76%,Stock prices are at a critical stage of bullish-bearish contention.。 The direct factor triggering panic: Samsung's shareholder proposal fell short of expectations. Samsung announced its shareholder returns over the weekend, but there was no large-scale immediate stock buyback as the market had hoped, and the dividend payout ratio remained unchanged at 50%, with no increase.Previously, some memory companies had boosted investor confidence by increasing dividends and buybacks to signal strong business prospects. On August 13, SanDisk announced at its Investor Day that it would return 100% of its post-reinvestment cash flow to shareholders, causing its stock price to rise 13.67% that day; on August 19, SK Hynix announced a KRW 40 trillion buyback plan, with its stock closing up 0.2%. ButSamsung's "hold steady" stance on shareholder return details has reignited market scrutiny: concerns that earnings beat expectations have already been priced in, and whether high capital expenditures can translate into sustainable future returns. Crowded trading positions, but no change in fundamentals. Taking Micron as an example, from a fundamental perspective,The supply-demand dynamics in the memory sector have not changed temporarily, with tight orders...
(The illustrative graphics shown on screen are for demonstration purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or guarantees; market conditions change frequently, and the displayed option prices do not reflect real-time data.)
Finally, we’ve got a little perk for our fellow investors—feel free to claim it!Options Starter Pack
*This promotion is exclusively available to invited Hong Kong users. Click to learn more.Detailed terms and conditions of the promotion >>
Market conditions are complex and ever-changing,Options strategiesToo many choices and unsure how to proceed? Let Futubull help you build a strategy in three simple stepsOptions strategies, making investing simple and efficient!
After a short-term rebound, the memory sector faced a significant correction again last night, $SK hynix (SKHY.US)$ down 4.92%, $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ down 5.83%, $SanDisk (SNDK.US)$ down 6.45%, briefly triggering market panic; however, memory stocks collectively rebounded in pre-market trading today: SK Hynix +2.82%, Micron (MU) +1.98%, SanDisk (SNDK) +2.76%,Stock prices are at a critical stage of bullish-bearish contention.。 The direct factor triggering panic: Samsung's shareholder proposal fell short of expectations. Samsung announced its shareholder returns over the weekend, but there was no large-scale immediate stock buyback as the market had hoped, and the dividend payout ratio remained unchanged at 50%, with no increase.Previously, some memory companies had boosted investor confidence by increasing dividends and buybacks to signal strong business prospects. On August 13, SanDisk announced at its Investor Day that it would return 100% of its post-reinvestment cash flow to shareholders, causing its stock price to rise 13.67% that day; on August 19, SK Hynix announced a KRW 40 trillion buyback plan, with its stock closing up 0.2%. ButSamsung's "hold steady" stance on shareholder return details has reignited market scrutiny: concerns that earnings beat expectations have already been priced in, and whether high capital expenditures can translate into sustainable future returns. Crowded trading positions, but no change in fundamentals. Taking Micron as an example, from a fundamental perspective,The supply-demand dynamics in the memory sector have not changed temporarily, with tight orders...
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
Thumbs Up
19
Emm
1
254K Views
Report
Comments (4)
Write a Comment...
4
20
6