Pre-market Analysis: Marvell (MRVL) & Broadcom (AVGO)

Disclaimer:The above content is based on public data and quantitative analysis and is for reference only; it does not constitute investment advice. The market involves risks, so invest with caution. Any investment decision should be made independently based on personal risk tolerance, financial status, and investment objectives, consulting licensed professional institutions when necessary. Past performance does not indicate future returns.

Market Overview

The three major indices halted their declines and rebounded (Dow +0.22%, S&P 500 +0.21%, Nasdaq +0.16%). During the session, the U.S. Treasury announced it would at least double the size of its long-term Treasury liquidity support repurchase program (from $2 billion to $4 billion). The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell to 4.65%, and the 30-year bond yield dropped to 5.195%, boosting market sentiment. However, the technology and semiconductor sectors remained under pressure, highlighting a clearly structural market dynamic.

Marvell Technology (MRVL)

Market Recap: Marvell has staged a "deep V-shaped reversal" over the past two days. On August 18, it corrected sharply in line with the semiconductor sector, dropping 7.82%,; on August 19, it rebounded strongly driven by significant positive catalysts, rising 9.85%, with trading volume reaching $10.35 billion (volume ratio of 2.08). It gained another 1.54% in after-hours trading, closing at $237.27. The core catalyst was the signing of a $12.2 billion custom chip agreement and warrants with Google (strike price: $206.58, 58.97 million shares), covering the entire TPU ecosystem chain. This positions Marvell as the only custom ASIC chipmaker serving all three major cloud providers—Amazon, Microsoft, and Google—significantly elevating its market standing.

Fundamentals: The company has precisely positioned itself in the custom chip赛道, with ASIC orders from the three major cloud providers continuing to ramp up and AI custom chip revenue growing rapidly. The $12.2 billion Google deal further locks in visibility for medium-to-long-term growth, with backlog at historic highs. Short-term volatility mainly stems from the semiconductor sector's sensitivity to interest rates and pressure to digest high valuations.

Technical Analysis: Following the V-shaped reversal, the stock has reclaimed the 5-day moving average, indicating short-term momentum recovery. Support lies at $228–$230, while resistance is at $245–$250. Increased volume signals strong bullish absorption, but there is a need to digest profit-taking after the single-day surge.

Price Forecast (1–2 Days): Base Case (~55% probability): Consolidation at higher levels to digest profit-taking, ranging between $230–$245; a breakout above $246 on heavy volume would open up upside potential.

Broadcom (AVGO)

Market Recap: Broadcom has continued to weaken over the past two trading sessions. It fell 3.17% on August 18 and dropped another 4.61% on August 19, marking a cumulative decline of 7.63% over four consecutive days. Trading volume reached $12.74 billion, up 53%, with the stock closing at $362.48. The sharp decline was driven by a triple whammy of negative catalysts: First, Marvell secured a $12.2 billion custom chip agreement with Google, sparking market concerns and a reassessment of Broadcom's "scarcity value as a core supplier." Second, Q3 AI revenue guidance of $16 billion missed market expectations of $17.2 billion. Third, ongoing antitrust scrutiny of VMware and concerns over AI-related debt financing continue to suppress valuation. However, Goldman Sachs maintained its Buy rating with a price target of $525, arguing that competitive concerns are overpriced.

Fundamentals: The company's dual engines—AI semiconductors (custom ASICs + networking chips) and VMware software—drive medium- to long-term growth, with AI chip revenue still in a phase of rapid volume expansion. Short-term headwinds are concentrated on the reassessment of the competitive landscape and guidance missing expectations, but the underlying fundamental logic remains intact: AI capital expenditure continues to expand, and Broadcom's moat in SerDes and switching chips remains deep.

Technical Analysis: After four consecutive days of declines, the stock lost support at the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, signaling a clear short-term weakening trend. Support lies below at $357–$360, while resistance to any rebound is at $370–$380. The heavy volume during the decline indicates that selling pressure has not yet been fully exhausted.

Price Forecast (1–2 Days): The base case (approximately 50% probability) is weak stabilization, with consolidation in the $355–$370 range; if it breaks below $357, the next downside target is the psychological level of $350.

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