Robots are being widely deployed—have automakers unlocked a second growth curve?

时代财经

joined discussion ·

In the first half of the year, the lithium-ion battery structural components segment saw rapid growth but faced margin pressure; Kedali's "robotics narrative," embedded in its market capitalization of over RMB 50 billion, remains to be realized.

Source: Times Business Research Institute Authors: Chen Jiaxin, Han Xun

Source | Times Business Research Institute

Authors | Chen Jiaxin, Han Xun

Edited by Han Xun

On August 14, Kedali (002850.SZ), a leader in precision structural components for lithium batteries, reported its results for the first half of 2026: revenue reached RMB 9.208 billion, up 38.58% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 943 million, up 22.57% year-on-year.

Revenue growth hit a relatively high level in recent years, but profit growth significantly lagged, creating a nearly 16 percentage point "scissors difference" in growth rates between revenue and profit. On one hand, demand for new energy batteries, especially for energy storage, continues to surge, with some lithium battery structural component production bases operating at full capacity. On the other hand, rising prices for raw materials such as aluminum and steel continue to erode profit margins in the structural components business.

More notably, Kedali is no longer viewed merely as a lithium battery structural components company. Over the past year or so, Kedali's stock price has risen sharply, with its market capitalization exceeding RMB 50 billion. A key basis for the valuation premium assigned by the market is the growth potential associated with its entry into the humanoid robot components sector.

However, based on information disclosed in the semi-annual report, it is too early to discuss contributions from Kedali's robot components business. This segment is still in the stages of capacity ramp-up, customer validation, and R&D investment, with revenue scale remaining small. Among the three areas Kedali has laid out—harmonic reducers, lead screws, and dexterous hands—the revenue share from the fastest-progressing area, harmonic reducers, remains below 1%, while lead screws and dexterous hands are at an even earlier stage.

Kedali's 2026 semi-annual report not only highlighted the robust prosperity of its core lithium battery structural components business but also exposed profit pressures amid rising raw material costs. Meanwhile, although its robotics business is accelerating its layout, it still has a considerable way to go before becoming a second growth curve.

As of the close on August 19, Kedali's stock price settled at CNY 181.87 per share, with a total market capitalization of CNY 52.075 billion.

I. Revenue Growth Accelerates, Gross Margin Under Pressure

1. Growth Curve Continues to Rise, Quarterly Growth Rate Increases Quarter by Quarter

Kedali's revenue growth accelerated in 2026. The H1 revenue scale of CNY 9.208 billion and a year-on-year growth rate of 38.58% were significantly higher than the full-year growth level of 26.46% in 2025.

From a quarterly perspective, the trend of accelerated revenue growth at Kedali is even more pronounced. Data from Tonghuashun iFinD shows that since 2025, Kedali's revenue growth rate has risen quarter by quarter, with revenue growth rates of 34.10%, 37.09%, and 39.83% in Q4 2025, Q1 2026, and Q2 2026, respectively.

Behind the acceleration in revenue, the core driver remains the growing demand for new energy batteries downstream, with the energy storage business potentially becoming the largest source of incremental growth.

According to SNE Research statistics, the global cumulative installation volume of power batteries reached 608.5 GWh in the first half of 2026, a year-on-year increase of 20.0%. Meanwhile, according to ICC Xinluo Information, global energy storage battery shipments reached 507.8 GWh during the same period, a substantial year-on-year increase of 97.5%, far outpacing the growth of power batteries. The explosive growth in the energy storage sector has directly driven the rapid expansion of demand for structural components.

By business segment, Kedali's lithium battery structural components generated approximately CNY 9.037 billion in revenue in the first half of 2026, a year-on-year increase of 41%, making it the absolute main driver of revenue growth. Overseas performance was equally impressive, with overseas revenue reaching CNY 390 million in the first half of 2026, a year-on-year increase of 54%, exceeding the overall growth rate, as production capacity at overseas bases in Germany, Sweden, Hungary, and other countries continued to be released.

2. Rising Raw Material Costs Erode Profits, Gross Margin Declines by More Than 2 Percentage Points Year-on-Year

However, the acceleration in revenue growth has not fully translated into profit growth. In the first half of 2026, Kedali reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 943 million, a year-on-year increase of 22.57%, lagging behind revenue growth by 16 percentage points. The widening gap between profit and revenue growth rates is primarily attributed to declining gross margins and a sharp rise in R&D expenses.

In the first half of 2026, Kedali's overall gross margin stood at 20.72%, down 2.15 percentage points year-on-year. Specifically, the gross margin for the second quarter was approximately 20.36%, representing a 3.07 percentage point decline year-on-year and a sequential drop from the first quarter.

The primary driver of pressure on gross margins was the rising cost of key raw materials such as aluminum and steel. Since the fourth quarter of 2025, aluminum prices have entered an upward trend, maintaining high-level volatility in the first half of 2026; meanwhile, steel prices also saw a notable increase during the same period.

As a manufacturer of precision structural components, raw materials like aluminum and steel account for a significant portion of Kedali's production costs. Since the company does not use futures hedging to mitigate price fluctuation risks, the impact of rising raw material costs on gross margins is relatively direct.

Whether gross margins can recover in the future largely depends on Kedali's ability to pass on cost pressures to downstream customers and whether raw material prices decline.

Kedali stated to Times Business Institute that, in response to rising raw material costs, the company is maintaining close communication with customers and engaging in dynamic price negotiations for flexible adjustments.

On the expense side, a substantial increase in R&D investment represents another major outlay. In the first half of the year, Kedali's R&D expenses reached RMB 560 million, a significant year-on-year increase of 57.97%, significantly outpacing revenue growth. The R&D expense ratio rose to 6.08%, making it the largest expense item. This rapid growth in R&D spending may be linked to Kedali's increased investment in its new robotics business.

II. How Substantial Is the Robotics Components Business?

1. The Robotics Narrative Behind the Doubling of Share Price

Since 2025, Kedali has performed strongly in the secondary market, with its share price nearly doubling and its total market capitalization exceeding RMB 50 billion, significantly outperforming most peers in the lithium-ion battery supply chain. The core logic behind the market's valuation premium is not primarily its traditional lithium-ion battery structural components business, but rather its cross-industry expansion into the robotics components sector.

Humanoid robots are viewed as the next trillion-yuan investment track following new energy vehicles, with significant potential for domestic substitution of core components. Kedali's cross-sector expansion has precisely capitalized on this market trend.

In 2024, Kedali formally entered the humanoid robotics sector.

However, compared to its traditional core business, Kedali lacks a particularly strong industrial foundation for manufacturing robotic components.

Kedali's previous core business focused primarily on precision structural components for lithium batteries and automotive structures. While the company has accumulated strong capabilities in precision stamping, metal forming, welding, mold making, automated production, and large-scale manufacturing, these competencies are not entirely equivalent to those required for core robotic components.

Consequently, Kedali chose to enter the robotics industry through joint ventures and partnerships.

In April 2024, Kedali jointly invested with Taiwan's Alliance Automation (hereinafter "Alliance") and Taiwan's Mengying Technology (hereinafter "Mengying") to establish Shenzhen Kemeng Innovation Robotics Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter "Kemeng Innovation"). Kedali contributed RMB 40 million for a 40% stake; Alliance holds 34%, Mengying holds 10%, and the employee stock ownership platform holds 16%. As the voting rights of the employee stock ownership platform were delegated to Kedali, Kedali obtained actual control over Kemeng Innovation and consolidated it into its financial statements.

Judging by the backgrounds of its partners, Kedali's role in this venture is not that of a traditional "core technology provider."

Mengying is itself an enterprise engaged in the R&D of harmonic reducers, with its business scope covering the research, design, development, manufacturing, and sales of such products. Meanwhile, Alliance possesses technical and industrial resources in automation equipment, systems, and related components.

In other words, Kedali primarily leverages its advantages in capital, precision manufacturing, large-scale production, quality management, and supply chain capabilities, while the specialized technical expertise in the robotics field comes mainly from its partners.

In its semi-annual report, Kedali summarized this model as "joint venture cooperation, resource integration, and synergistic development." By partnering with high-quality industry players, the company integrates their long-accumulated core technologies and R&D experience, while leveraging its own strengths in precision manufacturing, mass production, quality control, and cost management.

The advantage of this model is that it lowers the technical barriers to cross-industry entry into new sectors, offering a pragmatic path to rapidly acquire core robotics technologies. However, the drawbacks are equally apparent: if Kedali does not independently master these core technologies, it remains to be seen whether the company will control the technical moats, profit margins, and supply chain bargaining power in its future robotics business.

2. Harmonic reducers are advancing the fastest, but they are unlikely to drive earnings in the short term.

Currently, Kedali’s robotics business is primarily focused on harmonic reducers, lead screws, and dexterous hands, with harmonic reducers showing relatively faster progress.

Since its inception, Kemeng Innovation has positioned harmonic reducers as its core technology focus and plans to further extend into robotic joint modules.

In terms of capacity building, Kemeng Innovation has established production bases in China. A previous research report by Soochow Securities indicated that its Phase I capacity of 50,000 harmonic reducers is gradually entering the production stage. This year, Kedali is further advancing its overseas expansion.

In June 2026, Kedali announced plans to jointly establish a controlling subsidiary with Mengli and Mengying in Thailand to build a harmonic reducer production base, with a planned investment not exceeding RMB 350 million, in which Kedali will hold a 51% stake.

Based on Kedali’s recent investor communications, monthly capacity at its domestic production base is steadily ramping up, while the Thailand base will further strengthen its overseas supply capabilities.

However, a noteworthy detail is that Kedali explicitly stated in its Thailand project announcement that the harmonic reducer business is still in its early development stage, with related product revenue accounting for less than 1% of Kedali’s 2025 total revenue. Kedali also cautioned that if bulk purchase orders from downstream customers fall short of expectations, the new capacity may not operate at full load, thereby extending the investment payback period.

This effectively indicates that the current contribution of the robotics business to Kedali’s financial performance remains very limited.

The more significant issues lie in market size and the pace of commercialization.

Kemeng Innovation's current harmonic reducers utilize solutions such as aluminum-steel composites and specialized PEEK materials, with a strong emphasis on lightweight design. The company primarily targets markets with significant lightweighting demands, such as humanoid robots. In previous investor surveys, Kedali stated that in the humanoid robot sector, special PEEK material harmonic reducers have attracted considerable customer attention, as clients have relatively more lenient requirements for product service life compared to those for industrial robots.

Kedali also told Times Business Research Institute that "lightweighting" is a crucial development direction for high-precision reducers. Having deeply cultivated the precision structural components sector for many years, the company has accumulated technical expertise in materials, equipment, and process routes, which helps optimize the lightweight performance of its products.

However, humanoid robots are still in the early stages of rapid technological iteration and industrialization. Achieving large-scale mass production still requires resolving issues related to cost, reliability, battery endurance, and application scenarios.

In previous communications with institutions, Kedali noted that the sample testing cycle for humanoid robot customers typically takes 1–2 months. Furthermore, as robot product designs iterate rapidly, customer demands and product structures are constantly evolving. Consequently, it will still take considerable time for orders to be finalized and converted into mass production.

Therefore, even though Kemeng Innovation's harmonic reducer production capacity is ramping up, this does not imply that revenue will be released at a similarly rapid pace.

3. Lead screws and dexterous hands resemble long-dated options

Compared to harmonic reducers, Kedali's industrialization progress in lead screws and dexterous hands is at an earlier stage.

Kedali has positioned itself in these product areas by establishing relevant joint ventures. However, from an equity structure perspective, Kedali holds a 30% stake in both joint ventures but has not obtained control. This differs significantly from Kemeng Innovation's model, where it holds a 40% stake and exercises actual control.

This indicates that Kedali's level of participation varies across the three major robot component sectors. Overall, the robotics business is not yet a mature business system that Kedali can independently control.

Kedali's robot component business (particularly lead screws and dexterous hands) resembles a long-dated option: If humanoid robots enter the stage of large-scale mass production in the future, and Kedali can leverage its capabilities in precision manufacturing, automated production, and scaled management to enter the core component supply chain, the robotics business could indeed open up new growth opportunities. However, if the commercialization speed of humanoid robots falls short of expectations, the R&D, equipment, and capacity investments made in the early stages may require a longer period to be absorbed.

3. Core Viewpoints:The lithium-ion battery business provides a solid foundation, while the robotics segment as a second growth curve remains distant.

Overall, Kedali's 2026 semi-annual report reveals two clear main themes.

The first theme is its core business of lithium-ion battery structural components: accelerating revenue and full capacity utilization at certain bases constitute the foundation of Kedali's performance. However, gross margin compression caused by rising raw material prices has resulted in profit growth lagging behind revenue growth by 16 percentage points. The key watchpoint for this segment lies in the second half of the year: if aluminum prices decline or price hikes are successfully implemented, gross margins are expected to recover.

The second theme is the robotics components business: coordinated layout across three major products, ramping up production capacity for harmonic reducers alongside customer validation, and the commencement of construction at the Thailand base indicate that industrial progress is indeed accelerating. However, with technological control held by joint venture partners, an extremely low revenue contribution, and the humanoid robot industry still in its incubation phase, this segment is expected to contribute very little to financial performance in 2026 or even 2027.

Investors need to recognize clearly that a significant portion of Kedali's current market capitalization of over RMB 50 billion includes expectations of potential success in its robotics business. If the mass production pace of humanoid robots falls short of expectations in 2027, or if the competitive landscape for harmonic reducers deteriorates (with competitors such as Leader Harmonious Drive Systems (688017.SH) and HD also accelerating their layouts), the valuation premium associated with this segment faces pressure for correction.

In the short term, the focus is on whether gross margins for lithium-ion battery structural components can recover; in the long term, the focus is on whether humanoid robots can achieve volume production as scheduled—these are the two core variables for Kedali's future. The semi-annual report has laid all cards on the table: steady growth in the core business but pressured profits, while the robotics components business presents an attractive narrative but is too early for realization.

Disclaimer:This report is intended solely for clients of Era Business Research Institute. The receipt of this report does not constitute the recipient as a client of our company. This report is prepared based on information that we believe to be reliable and publicly available; however, we make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. The opinions, assessments, and forecasts contained herein reflect only the views and judgments as of the date of publication. We do not guarantee that the information in this report will remain up to date. We reserve the right to modify the content of this report without prior notice, and investors should independently monitor any updates or revisions. While we strive to ensure objectivity and fairness, the views, conclusions, and recommendations expressed herein are for reference only and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities mentioned. These views and recommendations do not take into account any individual investor’s specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs, and therefore do not constitute personalized investment advice at any time. Investors should carefully consider their own circumstances and fully understand and utilize the content of this report, and should not rely solely on this report when making investment decisions. Neither our company nor the authors shall bear any legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on or use of this report. To the best of our knowledge, neither our company nor the authors have any legally prohibited interests in the securities or investment targets referred to in this report. To the extent permitted by law, our company and its affiliated entities may hold positions in the securities issued by companies mentioned in this report and may engage in transactions involving such securities, or may provide or seek to provide investment banking, financial advisory, or other financial services related thereto. Copyright in this report belongs exclusively to our company. No institution or individual may reproduce, copy, publish, cite, or redistribute this report in any form without our prior written permission. Where citation or republication is permitted with our consent, it must be used within the authorized scope, clearly credited as 'Era Business Research Institute,' and must not involve any distortion, omission, or modification inconsistent with the original intent. We reserve the right to pursue legal responsibility for any infringement. All trademarks, service marks, and logos used in this report are the property of our company.

24K Views