Optical transceiver modules are awaiting a pullback, while CPUs may initiate a catch-up rally.

1. $Lumentum (LITE.US)$ LITE dropped nearly 10% in a single day yesterday, with its share price returning to around $870. Looking at the structure for the entire month of August, $800 is a very important阶段性 low for Lumentum. Therefore, if the intraday correction continues today, I believe the $830–$800 range is a relatively good zone for an initial position. If the stock price adjusts to this level and the market continues to correct, leading to a second retest by LITE, the second entry point could be around $730.

2 $Marvell Technology (MRVL.US)$ Among current optical transceiver stocks, I believe MRVL is the core holding with the strongest stability at this stage.

Compared to LITE, AAOI, and other high-beta stocks, MRVL's recent gains have been less exaggerated. From a technical structure perspective, there is a clear dense trading zone at lower levels near $200, which theoretically offers strong support from capital inflows. If you remain bullish on optical transceivers but do not wish to speculate on high-volatility stocks like LITE, you can shift your attention to MRVL. For investors who already entered positions at $216 yesterday, there is no need to rush to adjust; simply continue holding normally. If the market indeed undergoes a second correction, consider averaging down when the price approaches $190. For those currently fully in cash and observing from the sidelines, I believe the $205–$200 range is a comfortable entry zone.

Next, I want to focus on one specific sector: CPUs.

I actually believe that CPUs are the tech sector most likely to see rapid catch-up growth in the next round. Since late July, optical transceivers, memory chips, and data center stocks have risen, but CPUs, which are equally critical infrastructure for AI data centers, have not yet experienced a significant primary uptrend.

3 $Intel (INTC.US)$ In particular, Intel's effective gain from its low-point rebound to now is less than 15%, significantly lagging behind optical transceivers, memory, and data center stocks. This raises an interesting question: sectors that have risen the most now need to shed excess valuation, while those that have barely risen may begin to offer catch-up potential. If you feel that the short-term volatility in optical transceivers and memory is still too high and worry about continued profit-taking, you can shift some attention to the CPU sector. Currently, the focus remains on Intel. From a technical perspective, the $95–$90 range remains a favorable area for staggered entries. Furthermore, based on 13F filings disclosing holdings by certain funds and institutions, institutional allocation to Intel remains high. Therefore, I believe Intel's current share price still offers considerable room for valuation repair. Especially if market sector rotation occurs, CPUs could well become the next focus of capital flows. If you are currently cautious about optical transceivers and memory in the short term, consider waiting for Intel's relative lows to establish a preemptive position.

92K Views