Optical communication stocks lead the rebound; will the AI optical cycle continue?

1. $Lumentum (LITE.US)$ LITE dropped nearly 10% in a single day yesterday, with the share price returning to around $870. Fromthe perspective of the entire August structure, $800 is a very important阶段性 low for Lumentum,Therefore,if the intraday correction continues today, I believe the $830–$800 rangeis a relatively good initial entry zone for Lite. If the stock price adjusts to this level,and if the market continues to correct in the future, leading to a second pullback for LITE,the position for the second entry can waitnear $730.。

2 $Marvell Technology (MRVL.US)$ Additionally, among current optical transceiver module stocks, I feel that at this stageThe core holding with the strongest stability is MRVL.
Compared to LITE, AAOI, and other high-beta stocks,MRVL's recent gains have been less exaggerated., andFrom a technical structure perspective, near the $200 level,there is a clear concentration of trading volume at lows, suggesting strong theoretical support from capital inflows. If you stillremain bullish on optical transceivers but prefer not to speculate on high-volatility names like LITE,then consider shifting your focus to MRVL. For investors whoalready entered positions yesterday ahead of the rise at $216,there is no need to rush into action now; simply continue holding. If the market indeed undergoes a second correction, you canwait for the share price to approach $190 before considering averaging down.As for those who are currently completely out of the market and still on the sidelines,I consider the $200–$205 range to be a comfortable entry point for positioning.
Next, I want to focus on one specific sector: CPUs.
The CPU sector is actuallywhat I believe to be the tech theme with the greatest potential for rapid catch-up growth in the next cycle,Since late July, optical modules, memory storage, and data centers have all risen,yet CPUs, which are equally critical to AI data centers, have not experienced a significant primary uptrend.

3 $Intel (INTC.US)$ In particular, Intel’s effective gain from its low-point rebound to now is less than 15%,lagging significantly behind optical modules, memory storage, and data centers.This raises avery interesting question: sectors that have surged the most now need to shed excess valuation, while those that have lagged may now offer room for catch-up gains.If you currently feel that the short-term volatility in optical modules and storage is still too high, and are worried about continued profit-taking ahead, then you can absolutelyshift some of your attention to CPUs.Currently, the focus remains on Intel. From atechnical perspective, the $90–$95 range remains a relatively attractive zone for phased entry,and based on 13F filings disclosed by certain funds and institutions, institutional investors continue to maintain significant allocations to Intel. Therefore, I believe that at currentlevels, Intel's stock price still has considerable room for valuation recovery. Especially if sector rotation occurs in the market later on, CPUs could very well become the next focus of capital flows.If you are currently wary of the short-term risks in optical modules and storage, you might consider waiting for Intel to hit relative lows to establish a preliminary position.

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Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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