港股窩輪Jenny

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Five stocks at key inflection points: Meituan is the strongest, but Shenhua may actually have the clearest direction

Today we’ve selected five stocks—not purely those with the biggest gains, but ones currently near critical levels that could soon choose a direction.

Some are very strong but not suitable for chasing; others appear ordinary yet have clearer directional signals.

First, let’s look at their overall positioning:

Meituan $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ : 95% reward-to-risk ratio—ironically, this makes it even more unwise to chase recklessly

Meituan has a 95-point upside reward-to-risk ratio, the highest among the five.

But yesterday the stock fell 0.8%, encountered resistance while testing the 250-day moving average, and slightly dipped below the 5-day moving average. Put open interest increased by 12.72%, while both bull and bear warrant open interest declined.

This combination is quite interesting.

Meituan’s trend is indeed strong, but its current price of HK$92.70 is less than 1% away from the HK$93.45 resistance level. In other words, if you chase calls now, your immediate hurdle isn’t a big rally—it’s whether the stock can break through HK$93.45.

Here's how I see it:

– Break above HK$93.45: next target at HK$94.70;

– Failure to hold HK$92.50: first support at HK$91.30;

– Trading between HK$92.50 and HK$93.45: not worth taking a heavy directional position.

For bullish exposure, consider Citi CBBC 26153 with an effective leverage of approximately 5.8x; for higher sensitivity, consider UBS Group bull certificate 67879 with leverage of about 10.4x. For bearish views, consider Guojun put warrant 28142 with leverage of around 7.4x.

However, the most reasonable approach remains waiting for a breakout above HK$93.45 or a pullback that holds steady above HK$92.50.

Meituan is not unworthy of attention—it’s just too close to resistance to justify chasing the price recklessly.

BYD $BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$ : Stock price weakens, yet bull warrant street holdings increase

BYD fell 1.53% yesterday, dropping below both the 5-day and 60-day moving averages; meanwhile, bull warrant street holdings rose by 8.77%, while bear warrant street holdings declined for the fourth consecutive day.

Many people seeing an increase in bull warrant street holdings might interpret it as market optimism.

But that’s not necessarily the case.

It could be funds buying on dips, or existing long positions unwilling to cut losses. Ultimately, everything still comes back to the stock price itself.

BYD is currently trading at HK$93.45, with support at HK$93.05 and resistance at HK$94.15.

– Holding above HK$93.05: rebound conditions remain intact;

– Reclaiming HK$94.15: only then would strength resume.

– If it breaks below HK$93.05, the next support level is at HK$90.95.

For bullish exposure, consider HSBC warrant 13092 (call), with leverage of approximately 7.1x; or HSBC bull certificate 62554, with leverage of about 9.7x. If the price falls below HK$93.05, consider Guotai Junan warrant 27340 (put), with leverage of around 5.8x.

I won’t buy this one just because street inventory of bull certificates has increased.First, watch whether the share price can reclaim HK$94.15—the outlook will become much clearer.

AIA $BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$ : A mere HK$0.4 range—waiting is more important than forecasting.

AIA dropped 0.64% yesterday, breaking below the 5-day, 10-day, and 250-day moving averages, but it is still holding near the 60-day moving average. Call warrant street inventory rose for two consecutive days, while put warrant street inventory declined for two straight days.

Current price: HK$78.05; support at HK$77.95; resistance at HK$78.35.

The range is only HK$0.4—it’s a very clear breakout zone.

– If it breaks above HK$78.35, the next target is HK$79.30;

– Breaking below HK$77.95: next support level at HK$76.95.

Citi CBBC 13649 has a leverage of approximately 5.6x, while HSBC put warrant 24219 has a leverage of about 5.7x; the sensitivity of both products is very similar.

This scenario is actually the easiest to handle:Don’t pick a product first—wait for the stock price to choose its direction.

NetEase $NTES (09999.HK)$ : Not weak, just lacking sufficient reason to act for now

NetEase dropped 1.15% yesterday, falling below its 5-day moving average. Call open interest has declined for six consecutive days, and put open interest has also fallen for two straight days.

Both bulls and bears are reducing their positions, indicating the market currently lacks strong directional consensus.

NetEase is trading at HK$205.60, with an upside probability score of 55, indicating a relatively neutral stance.

– Above HK$207: strength resumes;

– Below HK$204.60: short positions start gaining room;

– Neutral stance: Not yet worth rushing into a position.

For bullish views, consider Sun Hung Kai Financial CBBC 14502 (call warrant) with leverage of approximately 5.4x; for bearish views, refer to Morgan Stanley CBBC 29128 (put warrant) with leverage of approximately 6.9x.

NetEase’s current key trading opportunity lies not in buying immediately, but in waiting for it to break out of the narrow range between HK$204.60 and HK$207.00.

China Shenhua $CHINA SHENHUA (01088.HK)$ : Among the five, it actually has the clearest direction

Shenhua fell 1.08% yesterday, marking its third consecutive decline, and closed below both the 20-day and 60-day moving averages. Open interest in call warrants dropped sharply by 42.19% in a single day, and there is currently no put warrant open interest in the market.

Trading at HK$42.18, it has an upside probability score of 36 and a downside probability score of 64, making it the weakest among the five stocks.

Its key levels are straightforward:

– Below HK$42.40: rebounds remain relatively weak;

– A break below HK$41.92 would target the next support level at HK$40.91;

– Only a move back above HK$42.40 would set the stage for another test of HK$43.14.

For a bullish view, consider Huatai warrant 16864 (call), with leverage of approximately 10.7x, but it only becomes meaningful after the price reclaims HK$42.40. For a bearish outlook, refer to UBS Group warrant 53196 (put), with leverage of about 2.3x.

A 2.3x leverage may seem unexciting, but given Shenhua's current price action, lower leverage is actually more suitable—it allows you to patiently wait for the downtrend to continue without being overly affected by a single-day rebound.

Among these five, how would I rank them?

Purely from a trend perspective, Meituan is the strongest; but purely in terms of entry point, Meituan may not be the best choice.

Here’s how I see it:

– Meituan: Strongest, but waiting for a breakout;

– BYD: Holding support, waiting to reclaim resistance;

– AIA: Trading range only HK$0.4 wide—most suitable for breakout trades;

– NetEase: On hold for now;

– ShenhuaThe direction is weakest, yet clearest.

A high reward-to-risk ratio doesn't mean you should buy immediately; a low reward-to-risk ratio doesn't mean you must sell.

What truly matters is: at what price level will you take specific action?

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