Market Summary – July 30, 2026

Major Indices:S&P 500: +1.66% to 7,437.63; Dow Jones: +1.19% to 52,208.06; Nasdaq 100: +3.36% to 28,106.35.

U.S. Stocks:Apple: -1.41% to $333.43; Tesla: +3.53% to $308.85; NVIDIA: +2.65% to $195.04.

Asian indices since their respective market closes:Nikkei: +2,770 points to 64,480 (+4.49%); Kospi: +69.40 points to 937.00 (+8.00%); Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (H-Shares): +18 points to 8,690 (+0.21%); Hang Seng Index: +117 points to 26,021 (+0.45%); FTSE China A50 Index: +174 points to 14,847 (+1.19%).

Interest Rates and Expectations:U.S. 10-year Treasury yield: down 1 basis point to 4.67%; U.S. 2-year Treasury yield: down 2 basis points to 4.25%. Rate hike expectations: Market pricing indicates a 63% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 16 policy meeting. For year-end 2026, market pricing implies a 43% chance of at least two rate hikes. By end-2027, the most common forecast (32% probability) is for two rate hikes (25 basis points each); meanwhile, there is a 16% probability priced in for unchanged or lower rates, and a 23% probability of hikes totaling 75 basis points or more.

Overseas Commodities:Crude oil futures: down 0.53% at $84.01; natural gas futures: up 0.73% at $2.745; silver futures: up 2.13% at $59.33; gold futures: up 1.57% at $4,161.20

Volatility:VIX spot: closed at 17.09 (down 3.57 points); VIX futures (August contract): closed at 18.65 (down 1.66 points).

Market Summary:

Hedge fund rescue sparks tech stock rebound: During trading hours, news emerged that Situational Awareness, a hedge fund managed by Leopold Aschenbrenner—a former OpenAI researcher—was one of the main drivers behind the recent sharp declines in AI and semiconductor stocks. The fund had accumulated nearly $50 billion in tech stock positions. Hit by recent losses, it was forced to liquidate and ultimately required a bailout from Citadel, another hedge fund, which acquired part of its portfolio at a discount. This rescue news triggered a sharp rally in tech stocks, with the Nasdaq 100 fully recouping the previous session's losses by the close. Citadel clearly made substantial profits from this transaction.

Tech giants show divergent earnings performance: Microsoft posted its biggest single-day gain in 18 years after reporting strong earnings on Wednesday (after market close). However, earnings released after market close on Thursday were less impressive—Apple and Meta both saw their shares decline in after-hours trading as investors expressed disappointment.

Geopolitical risks ignored by markets: Meanwhile, the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran continues and threatens to draw more countries into the fray—Saudi Arabia is actively bombing armed groups in Iraq, and U.S. tankers have been hit by drone attacks in Egypt. Despite this, markets appeared entirely unmoved by Middle East tensions on Thursday.

Asian equity index futures rose overnight: Boosted by gains in U.S. tech stocks, Asian equity index futures climbed above their daytime settlement levels during overnight trading, led by South Korea’s Kospi and Japan’s Nikkei indices.

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Data sourced from Bloomberg as of 4:00 PM Chicago time on July 30, 2026 (at-the-money volatility data sourced from True Partner).

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