Global markets at a crossroads—tonight’s Fed decision moves every portfolio

The biggest focal point in global capital markets right now centers on the upcoming Federal Reserve July interest rate decision.

Institutional consensus: The Fed is highly likely to keep the benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, but key disagreements lie in the policy tone and whether room for a September rate hike will be preserved.

Four major themes are converging to shape market direction:

1. The Federal Reserve's policy stance dominates the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, determining global liquidity valuations;

2. Earnings reports from leading overseas AI companies will validate the sector’s momentum; whether high investments can translate into profitability will dictate the direction of tech stocks;

3. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are disrupting oil prices; a rebound in oil prices could reignite inflation concerns;

4. Divergence in capital flows is emerging: funds are rotating out of high-flying semiconductor and computing-power stocks and seeking refuge in defensive sectors.

Two opposing views dominate the current market:

View A: Inflation remains resilient, the Fed maintains a hawkish tone, putting pressure on high-valuation growth stocks—stay cautious and on the sidelines;

View B: Inflation is gradually easing, the tightening cycle is nearing its end, near-term headwinds have been fully priced in—opportune time to selectively accumulate quality assets on dips.

Here are a few open-ended questions—rational discussion is welcome:

① If the Fed holds rates steady but delivers a hawkish message, how would U.S. equities and gold react?

② Is the ongoing pullback in AI-related stocks a buying opportunity, or the beginning of a bubble unwinding?

③ Should growth-oriented tech stocks or energy and value-oriented defensive sectors be prioritized going forward?

Engage in rational discussion—reject extreme bullish or bearish views, as there is no single correct answer in investing. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$$TENCENT (00700.HK)$$Tesla (TSLA.US)$$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$

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