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US Equity Warrants Watch | Apple surges to new highs, Micron plunges into oversold territory—but existing warrant terms may not be equally favorable

Among the 11 US stocks with Hong Kong-listed warrants this time, price movements are highly divergent.

Apple and Microsoft continued their rebounds, with Apple rising to $333.26 and approaching the upper Bollinger Band; Meta and Palantir still maintain rebound structures. On the other hand, Micron, AMD, Broadcom, and Alphabet saw significant single-day declines, with Micron closing at $853.20 and its short-term RSI dropping to around 28.

However, correctly predicting a stock’s direction doesn’t guarantee that existing warrants will perform accordingly. The current batch of US equity-linked warrants remains limited in number—most underlying stocks have only one call and one put warrant available; AMD and Alphabet even have only call warrants. When there are only one or two choices, the warrant’s terms often matter more than the stock’s directional outlook.

Apple $Apple (AAPL.US)$ : Strongest underlying stock, but call warrants are already deep in-the-money

Apple closed at $333.26, up 1.76%, nearing its intraday high of $334.68. Its short-term RSI rose to approximately 84, making its price trend one of the strongest among this batch of underlying stocks.

The existing Apple call warrant has a strike price of $300, placing it about 8% in-the-money, expiring in early October, with a delta of approximately 76%, an effective gearing of about 6.7x, and daily time decay of roughly 0.4%.

The advantage of these terms is relatively stable tracking performance. If Apple continues to rise, the warrant price is highly likely to follow suit, reducing the risk of a scenario where 'the stock rises but the warrant barely moves.' The trade-off is that the leverage isn’t particularly high—it’s more akin to using less capital to amplify Apple’s gains and losses, rather than chasing explosive returns.

For those bullish on Apple breaking above $335, this call warrant’s terms are reasonable. However, with the stock already near the upper Bollinger Band, the product choice itself isn’t the main issue—the real risk lies in the timing of entering the position.

The existing put warrant has a strike price of only $248, approximately 24% out-of-the-money, expiring at the end of September, with a delta of around 5% and daily time decay of about 4%. Such a put warrant would require a sharp and substantial drop in Apple’s share price to quickly become sensitive to directional moves. If you merely expect the stock to pull back from its highs to the $315–$320 range, the current put warrant isn’t an ideal instrument.

Microsoft $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ : Stock price strengthening, but call and put warrant terms are asymmetric

Microsoft closed at $401.10, up 1.38%, reclaiming the $400 level and nearing the upper Bollinger Band at $402.85. Its short-term RSI rose to around 70, indicating the rebound is entering overbought territory.

Microsoft call warrant with a strike price of USD 450, approximately 13% out-of-the-money, expiring in early October, offering an effective leverage of about 8.5x and a delta of roughly 32%, with daily time decay of approximately 1.7%.

This product isn't entirely unusable, but it requires Microsoft’s share price to break above USD 405 and continue advancing beyond USD 420 for its sensitivity (greeks) to gradually improve. If the stock price merely trades sideways between USD 395 and USD 405, the call warrant will continue to suffer from time decay.

In contrast, the terms of Microsoft put warrants are closer to the current market price: strike price at USD 390, only about 2% out-of-the-money, expiring at the end of September, with a delta of approximately 41% and an effective leverage of around 6.4x. If Microsoft meets resistance between USD 400 and USD 405 and subsequently breaks below USD 390, the directional response of the put warrants would be more pronounced.

Thus, Microsoft's current warrant structure is somewhat counterintuitive: although the stock trend remains relatively strong, the bearish instruments available in the market have strike prices closer to the current share price than the bullish ones.

Meta $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ : The stock has rebounded strongly, yet the call warrants require a further gain of over 20%.

Meta closed at USD 664.54, down 2.46%, but has recently rebounded in Hong Kong trading sessions from around USD 550 to the USD 680 level, and the share price remains above the middle Bollinger Band.

The existing call warrant has a strike price of USD 830, approximately 22% out-of-the-money, expiring at the end of August, with a delta of only about 18% and daily time decay of roughly 4.5%.

The challenges with this structure are very clear:

– The strike price is far from the current share price;

– Only about one and a half months remain until expiration;

– Time value decays relatively quickly each day;

– Delta is relatively low.

Even if Meta rebounds from $664 to $690—nearly a 4% gain in the underlying stock—the call warrant may not deliver ideal synchronous performance. Only if the share price rapidly breaks above $700, leading the market to revise volatility expectations upward, would the product’s sensitivity likely improve noticeably.

The Meta put warrant expires at the end of December, with a strike price of $475—about 30% out-of-the-money—and has a delta of approximately 12% and an effective gearing of around 4.4x. Although it has a longer time to expiry, the strike price is too far from the current level, so its response to typical pullbacks of 10% or less remains limited.

For Meta, the biggest issue currently isn’t difficulty determining direction, but rather that both bullish and bearish products are positioned far from the current share price. Significant price movement is required for either side to become effective.

Micron $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ The stock price has fallen into oversold territory, but the two call warrants are entirely different products

Micron closed at $853.20, down 5.65%, having retreated more than 30% from its recent high of $1,254 and approaching the lower Bollinger Band at $833. The short-term RSI is around 28, entering the oversold zone.

Micron has two call warrants with vastly different terms.

The first has a strike price of $700—about 21% in-the-money—expires in early November, carries a delta of approximately 77%, and has an effective gearing of about 2.3x, with daily time decay of roughly 0.36%. This product offers modest leverage but tracks the underlying stock relatively steadily. If you expect Micron to rebound from around $850 to $950, this warrant will closely mirror the underlying’s performance.

The other has a strike price of $1,800—about 103% out-of-the-money—expires at the end of December, has a delta of approximately 24%, and a premium of about 110%. Although the warrant’s price may not appear high, Micron would need to more than double within less than six months for the warrant to approach its strike price. Such terms shouldn’t be considered cheap simply because 'Micron has already fallen a lot,' as even a 20–30% rebound in the underlying could still leave the warrant heavily weighed down by its extremely high premium.

Micron's put warrant has a strike price of $400, approximately 55% out-of-the-money, with a delta of only about 7%. Even if Micron continues to decline to $750, this put would still be far from its strike price.

Therefore, the only warrant currently suitable for general directional positioning on Micron is the in-the-money call with a $700 strike price. The other call and put warrants are both deeply out-of-the-money and unsuitable for capturing typical-sized rebounds or pullbacks.

NVIDIA $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ The stock price has pulled back, but bearish products remain far out of reach

NVIDIA closed at $207.40, down 2.40%, retreating from its recent high of $236. It remains above the Bollinger Band midline at $202, with an RSI of approximately 54.

The existing call warrant has a strike price of $275, about 31% out-of-the-money, expiring in late December, with a delta of approximately 27%, an effective leverage of about 5.9x, and a premium of around 35%.

Such products require NVIDIA’s stock price to rebound to the $220–$230 range before the delta can meaningfully improve. If the stock merely consolidates between $200 and $215, time value will continue to erode gradually.

There are two put warrant strike prices available: $168 and $130.

The $168 put is about 20% out-of-the-money with a delta of roughly 19%; the $130 put is about 38% out-of-the-money with a delta of only around 7%. Neither serves as an at-the-money bearish instrument. If one only expects NVIDIA to drop to $190, the $168 put would respond somewhat, though sensitivity remains relatively low; the $130 put would require a much deeper correction to become effective.

For NVIDIA, the existing warrants are better suited for investors who have a clear view on a significant medium-term directional move, rather than for capturing short-term moves of around 5% over two or three days.

Palantir$Palantir (PLTR.US)$ The put warrant is already in-the-money, while the call warrant is nearly 50% out-of-the-money

Palantir closed at $134.44, up 0.51%. After rebounding from a low of $106, the stock has recently consolidated between $125 and $136, with its short-term RSI rising to around 67.

The existing call warrant has a strike price of $200, approximately 49% out-of-the-money, expiring in early October, with a delta of only about 14% and daily time decay of roughly 3.1%. Even if the stock rises to $150, it would still be far from the strike price, so bullish sentiment on Palantir does not necessarily mean this call warrant will follow suit easily.

The put warrant has a strike price of $140, already about 4% in-the-money, expiring in late December, with a delta of approximately 42% and daily time decay of only about 0.34%. Although this product’s effective leverage is only around 2.1x, its ability to track bearish moves is clearly more stable than that of the call warrants.

Palantir currently presents another example of asymmetric warrant terms: while the stock is rebounding, existing bearish products are actually more complete than bullish ones. Investors who focus solely on the lower price of call warrants may overlook the practical limitations imposed by being nearly 50% out-of-the-money and having a short time to expiry.

Tesla$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ The call warrant needs the underlying to break above $490; the two put warrants show little difference

Tesla closed at $391.06, down 0.86%, recently trading mainly between $380 and $420, with the Bollinger Bands midline around $398.63.

The existing call warrant has a strike price of $490, approximately 25% out-of-the-money, expiring in early October, with a delta of about 23% and daily time decay of roughly 2.2%. If Tesla fails to break back above $420–$430, the product’s sensitivity will remain relatively low.

The two put warrants have strike prices of $340 and $330, respectively, both about 14% to 16% out-of-the-money, expiring in December, with effective leverage of approximately 3.5x, deltas of around 24% to 27%, and time decay of about 0.7% per day.

The difference between these two puts is not significant. If expecting Tesla to retest $370, the $340-strike put will be slightly more sensitive; only if a decline extends below $330 will both gradually enter a more effective range.

Tesla’s warrant offerings are not extreme, but neither side features near-the-money terms. They are better suited for anticipating directional moves of over 10%, rather than capturing daily fluctuations of just a few percentage points.

AMD$Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ and Alphabet $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ There are only call warrants available, so the directional choice itself is already constrained

AMD closed at $500.94, down 5.33% for the day. The existing call warrant has a strike price of $700—about 35% out-of-the-money—with expiry in December. It offers an effective leverage of approximately 3.3x, a delta of around 41%, and an implied volatility of roughly 82%.

AMD itself exhibits high volatility, and the warrant’s implied volatility is notably higher than that of other large-cap tech stocks. Even if the underlying stock rebounds, a decline in market volatility could still dampen the call warrant’s upside. Additionally, with no put warrants available, bearish investors lack suitable instruments among this batch of products.

Alphabet closed at $354.46, down 4.44%. The existing call warrant has a strike price of $470—about 26% out-of-the-money—with expiry in December. It offers an effective leverage of approximately 6.8x, a delta of around 27%, and a premium of about 30%.

This product at least has a relatively longer time to expiry, but Alphabet would still need to rise from $354 back above $400 for the warrant’s sensitivity to become more pronounced. Currently, there are likewise no put warrants available.

Looking at the terms of these individual stocks together, we can group them into three categories:

Warrants that more directly track the underlying stocks:

– Apple $300 in-the-money call;

– Micron $700 in-the-money call;

– Palantir $140 in-the-money put.

The direction is understandable, but the strike prices require large upside or downside moves:

– Microsoft $450 call;

– NVIDIA $275 call and $168 put;

– Tesla $490 call and $330–$340 put;

– Alphabet $470 call.

The strike prices are too far from current levels, making it likely that even if the underlying stock moves favorably, the warrant response may be insufficient:

– Meta $830 call;

– Micron $1,800 call;

– Micron $400 put;

– Palantir $200 call;

– Apple $248 put.

Everyone likely has different views on these US stocks, but this batch of products once again highlights one key point:Being right about the underlying stock is only the first step; whether the strike price is reasonable, the hedge ratio (delta) is sufficient, and whether the required price movement can be achieved before expiration ultimately determine if the warrant truly aligns with your strategy.

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