Domestically developed AI large models are gaining pricing power—will the industry chain undergo a r

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Tengsi IPO Analysis | Will ChangXin Technology Soon Open for Subscription?! Any Opportunity in HK Stocks?

$CXMT Corporation (688825.SH)$ This STAR Market IPO is viewed by the market not merely as a new stock subscription opportunity, but as a milestone marking the entire domestic memory chip industry chain’s transition from"technological catch-up"to officially entering"Capitalization-driven expansion"A historic inflection point signaling a new phase.

The scarcity of its underlying assets, the certainty of explosive earnings growth, and systemic opportunities along the industrial chain together form a triple-resonance structure that the market cannot ignore—this is not a cyclical trading opportunity, but a structural window of generational advantage.

From a bottom-up asset perspective, ChangXin Technology is the only IDM in mainland China to have achieved scaled DRAM production, fundamentally disrupting the global DRAM industry landscape that was long dominated by $Samsung Electronics (005930.KR)$ 、 $SK hynix (SKHY.US)$ And, $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ three overseas oligopolists.

this kind of"Uniqueness"in the A-share market translates into extreme scarcity premium within its赛道 (sector):

—As the entire market chases the AI computing power theme, memory chips—the most foundational and indispensable hardware component of computing infrastructure—are propelled by dual tailwinds: domestic substitution logic and surging prices driven by a global supercycle. ChangXin Technology sits precisely at the intersection of these two dominant trends.

Reader’s Note: All data below are sourced from ChangXin Technology’s prospectus, compiled by Gaoteng International Asset Management Co., Ltd., and have not been reviewed by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC).

Data Sources: Company website, Gaoteng International Asset Management Co., Ltd.

From daily average losses to earning nearly RMB 300 million per day

What truly electrified the market was the almost vertically upward V-shaped reversal curve in Changxin Technology's financial data:

— In 2023, its non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was -RMB 16.752 billion; in 2024, the loss narrowed to -RMB 7.870 billion; in 2025, it swung sharply into profitability with a non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 5.316 billion; and in Q1 2026 alone, its quarterly non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders soared to RMB 263.41 billion—translating to nearly RMB 3 billion in average daily profit.

This hell-to-heaven transformation is extremely rare in semiconductor industry history. More importantly, the company’s H1 2026 earnings guidance projects net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 500–570 billion, up 2,244.03%–2,544.19% year-over-year, and non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 520–580 billion, up 2,278.89%–2,530.30% year-over-year.

— This isn't growth; this is"a nuclear explosion"。

From the perspective of thematic investing and trend tracking, what the market values most is the sustainability of earnings surges and the structural nature of their drivers—not mere cyclical rebounds. Behind Changxin Technology’s explosive earnings stand three irreversible structural forces:

First, the global DRAM industry is undergoing an unprecedented"super cycle", with the top three manufacturers reallocating over 30% of total capacity and more than 70% of advanced wafer resources toward high-margin HBM production, proactively shrinking capacity for conventional DRAM and NAND—directly breaking the decades-old pattern that the memory industry has long followed."Price surge – capacity expansion – oversupply – price drop"Traditional cyclical pattern;

Second, DRAM contract prices for Q1 2026 are surging 90% to 95% quarter-over-quarter, with a further increase of 58% to 63% expected in Q2. From Q4 2025 to Q2 2026, cumulative DRAM price gains will exceed 300%, placing current prices at an all-time industry high;

Third, AI servers consume 8 to 10 times more DRAM per unit than traditional servers. The combined AI infrastructure capex of the world’s top nine cloud providers is projected to reach approximately $830 billion in 2026, representing 79% year-over-year growth. AI servers now account for over 50% of total DRAM demand—this confluence of three powerful forces indicates that ChangXin Technology’s earnings surge is not a short-lived phenomenon but a structural tailwind likely to persist through 2027–2028.

From Full DDR4 Phase-Out to Aggressive DDR5 Ramp-Up

Since late 2024, the company has completely ceased production of its own DDR4 products, reallocating all capacity to next-generation DRAM products such as DDR5 and LPDDR5/5X.

The impact of this strategic shift was immediate—DDR series revenue jumped from RMB 3.174 billion in 2024 to RMB 19.531 billion in 2025, a 5.15-fold increase within a year, raising its share of total revenue from 13.26% to 31.87%. Moreover, DDR5 products boast a gross margin of 41.89%, significantly higher than the 37.25% margin for LPDDR series, demonstrating that the company has not only achieved a leap in revenue scale but also completed a qualitative transformation in product mix—from low-end to high-end.

Even more exciting for the market is that HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) remains in the early deployment phase within ChangXin Technology’s current product portfolio and has yet to contribute revenue. HBM represents the highest-margin, AI-compute-driven premium segment of the DRAM industry today—SK hynix, riding the HBM wave, has achieved an exceptional gross margin of 60.41%. While ChangXin’s current gross margin of 37.81% already matches that of Samsung and Micron, it is still in the initial ‘zero-to-one’ phase of HBM development.

Of the proceeds raised in the company’s IPO, RMB 9 billion will be allocated to forward-looking R&D, with a strategic focus on next-generation memory technologies like HBM. Mass production of HBM3 products is expected in the second half of 2026—indicating that ChangXin Technology’s gross margin ceiling is far from reached, and the profit potential unlocked by HBM mass production will serve as the core engine for its next earnings explosion.

Market capitalization upside: from RMB 295 billion to RMB 3 trillion

This STAR Market IPO plans to raise RMB 29.5 billion, with the publicly offered shares accounting for 10% of the total post-offering share capital. This implies a static offering valuation of approximately RMB 295 billion, corresponding to an estimated offering price of about RMB 4.41 per share. However, market expectations for Changxin Technology’s post-listing market capitalization are significantly higher than this baseline offering valuation, with institutional consensus forecasts clustering in the range of RMB 1.5 trillion to RMB 3 trillion.

— Using an expected net profit of RMB 100 billion in 2026 as the base: under a conservative scenario, applying a P/E multiple of 10–12x yields a valuation of RMB 1.1–1.32 trillion; under a neutral scenario, a P/E of 18–22x implies RMB 1.98–2.42 trillion; and under an optimistic scenario, a P/E of 25–30x suggests RMB 2.75–3.3 trillion.

Currently, Micron and SK Hynix maintain total market caps in the range of RMB 7.5–8 trillion. Changxin’s current production capacity and global market share are only about one-third of these overseas leaders. However, if the company can increase its market share to 15% over the next 3–5 years and achieve large-scale commercialization of high-end HBM memory products, its long-term fair market cap could reach RMB 4–5 trillion.

This implies more than a 10x upside potential from the offering valuation to the long-term fair valuation. Moreover, with strategic placements accounting for as much as 50% and substantial offline allocations subject to long-term lock-ups, the float at listing will represent an extremely small proportion of total shares outstanding, making it highly susceptible to sentiment-driven valuation premiums in the short term.

— Doesn’t this feel familiar? $SpaceX (SPCX.US)$ But unlike that case, Changxin Technology is genuinely backed by earnings, cyclical tailwinds, and growth potential!!

this kind of‘Fundamental certainty + float scarcity + sentiment premium’The convergence of these three factors forms the core rationale driving strong market participation.

Systemic opportunities across the Hong Kong-listed semiconductor supply chain

Disclaimer: The following analysis involves linear projections and reflects solely the author’s personal views and insights. It absolutely does not constitute investment advice!!

The ChangXin Technology IPO represents not only an A-share subscription opportunity for the market, but also a catalyst for a systematic revaluation of the semiconductor sector in Hong Kong, with its impact unfolding as follows:"Short-term sentiment catalyst → Medium-term supply chain transmission → Long-term restructuring of valuation frameworks"a three-phase transmission pathway. The core Hong Kong-listed beneficiaries currently drawing the most market attention include:

$GIGADEVICE (03986.HK)$ As a related company sharing the same"Hefei cluster",and chaired by the same chairman, Zhu Yiming, it holds a 1.8% stake in ChangXin Technology. Its expected related-party procurement amount for fiscal year 2026 is RMB 5.711 billion, making it the most directly and significantly benefiting stock from ChangXin’s IPO;

$MONTAGE TECH (06809.HK)$ As the leading memory interface chip company, it directly benefits from the surge in DRAM demand and rising DDR5 adoption rates, positioning it as one of the most elastic beneficiaries along the supply chain;

$SMIC (00981.HK)$ And, $HUA HONG GRACE (01347.HK)$ As the leading foundry, it will benefit from the increased upstream wafer fabrication demand driven by ChangXin Technology’s large-scale capacity expansion.

From the perspective of southbound capital flows, ChangXin Technology’s IPO has instead become a catalyst attracting accelerated inflows into Hong Kong’s semiconductor sector.

In the first five trading days of July, cumulative net southbound purchases exceeded HK$37.7 billion; on July 6 alone, net purchases reached HK$20.528 billion. In the second week of July, net southbound inflows surpassed HK$45 billion, with weekly net purchases poised to hit a new high for the year.

Since May 8, foreign capital has cumulatively net flowed into Hong Kong equities by approximately HK$75 billion. The clear trend of both domestic and foreign capital jointly chasing hard-tech stocks in Hong Kong—this systemic inflow on the funding side—has created an excellent liquidity environment for positioning in the Hong Kong-listed semiconductor supply chain.

Risk Hedging and Position Management

First, the risk of DRAM prices peaking temporarily—after surging for several consecutive quarters, prices have reached historic highs. If Q3 price increases fall short of market expectations, it could trigger a sentiment-driven correction in the sector, prompting the market to set price-triggered stop-loss levels;

Second, the risk of an industry cycle reversal—the three major players’ newly added capacity is expected to be largely released between 2027 and 2030. Once HBM supply increases significantly, the supply-demand balance may gradually ease, leading the market to start progressively reducing cyclical positions from mid-2027 onward;

Third, risks related to technological gaps and high-end product mass production—ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) has currently scaled its process node down to the 17nm level, still about two generations behind leading overseas manufacturers. Uncertainties remain regarding the yield rate and actual ramp-up speed of its HBM3 product mass production. The market will continuously monitor the company’s quarterly capacity utilization and yield data as signals for position reduction;

Fourth, geopolitical and export control risks—the continued escalation of U.S. semiconductor export controls targeting China could substantially constrain the company’s technology upgrades and capacity expansion. This represents a systemic risk that cannot be hedged by the market and can only be managed through position size caps.

In conclusion

ChangXin Memory Technologies’ (CXMT) upcoming IPO on the STAR Market is the most strategically significant hard-tech listing event in China’s capital markets in 2026. Its impact extends far beyond the company itself, effectively marking the transition of China’s domestic memory chip industry from“technology catch-up”phase into“capital-driven expansion”For investors who favor thematic investing and trend-following strategies, this is a historic opportunity that demands significant allocation.

Prior to Changxin Technology's official listing, the Hong Kong semiconductor sector will remain"expectation-driven trading"dominant in the short-term price action, with the market selectively building positions in core beneficiaries such as GigaDevice, Montage Technology, SMIC, and Hua Hong Hongli during pullbacks;

On the day before and the day of Changxin Technology’s subscription date (July 16), investors should be wary of potential short-term pullbacks caused by capital diversion, which could instead present opportunities to add positions;

After Changxin Technology’s official listing, the market will decide whether to participate in secondary market trading based on its debut performance, while continuously monitoring DRAM price trends and HBM mass production progress as key inputs for position adjustments;

For long-term capital, the capex expansion cycle across Changxin Technology’s supply chain is expected to last three to five years. The medium- to long-term allocation value of Hong Kong-listed semiconductor equipment and materials segments is the most certain, and the market will maintain core positions in this segment while dynamically assessing the timing of the industry cycle inflection point.

Beyond IPO speculation, we’ll always be right here $GaoTeng WeInvest Money Market Fund (HK0000478930.MF)$$GaoTeng WeValue USD Money Market Fund (HK0000584752.MF)$Waiting for you.

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