Market Overview – July 2, 2026

Major Indices:The S&P 500 rose 0.00% to close at 7,483.24; the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.14% to 52,900.07 (a record high); the Nasdaq 100 fell 1.61% to 29,329.21.

US individual stocks:Apple rose 4.84% to $308.63; Tesla dropped 7.49% to $393.45; NVIDIA declined 1.39% to $194.83.

Asian indices since their respective closing:The Nikkei 225 fell 590 points to 68,270 (-0.86%); the KOSPI declined 18.47 points to 1,222.43 (-1.49%); the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (H-Shares) slipped 1 point to 7,617 (-0.01%); the Hang Seng Index gained 10 points to 23,061 (+0.04%); the FTSE China A50 Index rose 54 points to 14,743 (+0.37%).

Interest Rates and Expectations:The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was unchanged at 4.48%; the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 4 basis points to 4.14%; expectations for rate hikes have cooled: markets currently price in an 18% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on July 19, and a 54% probability of at least a 25-basis-point hike at the September 16 meeting. For year-end 2026, markets assign a 35% probability to at least two rate hikes. By the end of 2027, the most likely scenario (34% probability) is one rate hike (25 basis points), while there is a 27% chance that rates remain unchanged or are cut, and a 13% probability of cumulative hikes of 75 basis points or more.

Overseas Commodities:Crude oil futures fell 0.15% to $68.48; natural gas futures declined 0.34% to $3.209; silver futures rose 1.44% to $61.38; gold futures gained 1.34% to $4,137.2.

Volatility:The VIX spot closed at 16.15 points (down 0.44 points); VIX futures (July contract) settled at 18.00 points (down 0.10 points); the one-month at-the-money implied volatility for the S&P 500 index stood at 13.0% (down 0.2 points on a revaluation basis at the same strike price); the one-month at-the-money implied volatility for the Nasdaq 100 index was 25.1% (down 0.3 points on a revaluation basis at the same strike price).

Market Summary:

Following another wave of intense selling in South Korean equities, the divergence between artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductor stocks and the rest of the market has intensified. Driven by giants such as Samsung and SK Hynix, the South Korean benchmark index has become a global barometer for the chip sector.

As expected, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index had another weak trading session, plunging 5.4%. Combined with Wednesday’s sell-off, the index has now fallen 11.4% over two trading days. Similar to Wednesday, Teradyne and KLA Corp both dropped more than 10%, while NVIDIA held up relatively well, declining only about 1%.

In contrast, value and traditional stocks performed better. This is evident from the stark divergence between major indices: the Nasdaq 100 fell more than 1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose over 1%. The S&P 500 ended essentially flat, caught right in the middle of this sector rotation.

Tesla, led by Elon Musk, saw its shares plunge more than 7% despite reporting stronger-than-expected vehicle delivery figures. Investors were clearly more focused on updates regarding its AI and robotaxi initiatives, and market disappointment ensued due to the near-total absence of substantive new announcements on these fronts (in fact, the promise that 'tens of thousands of robotaxis will hit the road next year' has now been repeated for five consecutive years without materialization).

In overnight trading, Asian equity index futures mostly declined relative to their daytime cash market closing levels. Futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 and South Korea’s Kospi 200 extended their losses beyond the significant declines already recorded during the day, while China A50 index futures recovered a small portion of earlier losses. Hong Kong index futures were largely flat.

[Note: Any content herein does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase securities.]

TRUE PARTNER (08657.HK)

Data as of 4:00 PM Chicago time on July 2, 2026, from Bloomberg (at-the-money volatility data from True Partner).

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