BYD is currently trading below all major moving averages; any rebound remains a correction from oversold conditions and is not suitable for heavy position chasing.

$BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$ BYD shares are trading at HK$90.8, with short-term momentum still weak. The price has broken below the 10-day MA at HK$98.135, the 20-day MA at HK$101.332, and the 30-day MA at HK$103.528, indicating all key short-term moving averages are above the current price and the trend has yet to recover. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 23.135, approaching oversold territory, providing technical conditions for a short-term bounce—but this only implies a 'potential rebound,' not a confirmed strengthening. To genuinely improve its short-term structure, the stock must first reclaim HK$98.135.

From the comments, retail sentiment on BYD is clearly divided, though overall pressure remains tilted to the downside. Bulls mostly believe the stock has neared short-term lows, seeing potential support around HK$93 and even anticipating institutional buying, A-share leadership, positive news catalysts, buybacks, or a short squeeze. Some investors think the price could theoretically rebound to HK$99 within a few trading sessions, while others target HK$100, HK$102, or HK$105—indicating that the market's immediate rebound targets cluster between HK$98 and HK$102. This view has some technical basis: HK$98.135 is precisely the 10-day MA resistance, and HK$101.332 marks both the 20-day MA and the middle Bollinger Band. If the stock truly begins to recover, this zone will inevitably be the first test.

However, bullish comments also reveal a strong speculative mindset hoping for a rebound. Some mention 'buying every dip,' targeting 'above 100,' 'breaking past 102,' 'A-shares leading the charge,' 'preparing for a buyback,' and 'expecting a strong bullish candle today'—reflecting investors’ growing impatience with modest bounces and their desire for a rapid recovery. The issue is that technical indicators do not yet support such optimism. BYD is trading at HK$90.85, merely near the lower Bollinger Band, and has not yet stabilized above any major moving average. Without significant volume expansion and a breakout above HK$98.135, any rebound is likely just a short-term oversold correction rather than a genuine reversal.

Bearish comments center on one key sentiment: sharp declines followed by sluggish rebounds. Some investors note drops of several HK dollars versus gains of mere cents—for example, a 0.53% rise after a prior 4% drop—while others expect another leg down tomorrow, even eyeing HK$90 or lower. These remarks reflect holders’ deep disappointment with BYD’s recent performance, especially as the price remains persistently below key moving averages and each minor bounce fails to alter the underlying weakness, gradually eroding market patience. Some also point out that buyers were trapped again near HK$94, indicating very low confidence in chasing rebounds and fears that every sign of recovery may simply be a bull trap.

Technically, the most critical support level at HK$92.450 has already been breached, signaling failed support near the lower Bollinger Band and suggesting weakness may persist. Next support to watch is at HK$88.500. On the upside, HK$98.135 is the first key level that must be reclaimed—not only because it’s the 10-day MA, but also because it serves as the initial gauge of whether any rebound has follow-through strength. If the price merely oscillates between HK$93 and HK$96, it will remain stuck in a low-range consolidation; only a decisive break above HK$98.135 would create conditions for a move toward the middle Bollinger Band at HK$101.332.

RMB 101.332 is a more critical pivot point, as it represents both the 20-day moving average and the middle Bollinger Band. Until the share price reclaims this level, the overall trend remains weak. Levels at RMB 103.528 and RMB 109.634 are currently seen as subsequent recovery targets, not levels that can be assumed achievable at this stage.

Among观望 comments, the most common questions are whether it’s time to buy, whether a buyback is imminent, whether A-shares will drive H-shares higher, and whether the next move will be a drop targeting bears at HK$107. These comments reflect the market's search for external catalysts to justify a rebound. However, what BYD needs right now isn’t justifications—it needs price confirmation. Stronger A-share performance could indeed improve sentiment, and a buyback or positive news might spark a short-term bounce. Yet ultimately, all bullish factors must translate into the share price breaking above HK$98.135; otherwise, it remains merely sentiment-driven recovery.

Regarding common questions: First, is it time to bottom-fish in BYD? Technically, the HK$93 level is near the lower Bollinger Band, and with the RSI deeply oversold, a short-term rebound is possible. However, since the price remains below all major moving averages, the risk-reward ratio is only neutral-to-low, making it unsuitable for heavy positioning. Second, can the stock reach HK$100? To do so, it must first break through HK$98.135, after which it could challenge HK$101.332. Third, could it fall to HK$90? If the HK$92.450 support level is breached, weakness would persist, making HK$88.500 the next technical support—and naturally drawing market focus to the HK$90 area.

Replying individually to investor comments

@End_of_the_Bears@空軍之末日: Deliberately reassuring—just wait one day, and it’ll surge past and catch up.

Even if technical rebound conditions exist, the price must first break above HK$98.135; otherwise, any rally remains a weak rebound.

@25356140@李亚168: Auto stocks rely on good news to bounce back.

News may boost sentiment, but in the short term, the key is whether HK$98.135 can be breached.

BYD Co. Ltd. (01211) Key Levels: In the short term, watch whether the support zone between HK$92.450 and HK$93.031 holds. If it holds firm, a technical rebound could be attempted. Only a break above HK$98.135 confirms conditions for recovery. If the price falls below HK$92.450, the downtrend could extend toward approximately HK$88.500.

Strategy 1 | Enter on momentum after breaking above HK$98.135, confirming recovery

25678 | Strike Price: HK$106.98 | Effective Leverage: 7.4x | Strike price is ~13.9% above current price—suitable for chasing recovery momentum after a breakout above HK$98.135, offering a balanced trade-off between leverage and distance

25528 | Strike price: HK$106.98 | Effective leverage: 7.4x | Also a mid-dated momentum play, suitable for capturing the move toward HK$101.332 after the stock price reclaims HK$98.135

25845 | Strike price: HK$106.90 | Effective leverage: 7.5x | Slightly higher leverage, suitable for short-term momentum plays after a breakout; not recommended for heavy positioning while still capped below HK$98.135

$UB-BYD @EC2608A.C (25678.HK)$$HS-BYD @EC2608A.C (25528.HK)$$BP-BYD @EC2608A.C (25845.HK)$

Strategy 2 | Deploy bearish positions if price breaks below HK$92.450, indicating continuation of weakness

28460 | Strike price: HK$99.85 | Effective leverage: 4.1x | Strike price closer to current market price, suitable for capturing initial signs of weakness after breaking below HK$92.450, with more direct responsiveness

28229 | Strike price: HK$90.00 | Effective leverage: 3.7x | Strike price near the support zone above HK$88.500, suitable for targeting further downside after confirmation of a breakdown, with relatively lower volatility

24617 | Strike price: HK$84.98 | Effective leverage: 5.3x | Lower strike price, suitable for anticipating further downside extension; better deployed when risk increases following a break below HK$88.500

$UB-BYD @EP2610A.P (28460.HK)$$CI-BYD @EP2702A.P (28229.HK)$$BP-BYD @EP2611A.P (24617.HK)$

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, views, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; asset performance should be comprehensively evaluated with other data. Trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's HK Stock Warrants for more professional insights.

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