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AI Boom vs. Tight Liquidity: Will the US Stock Rally Continue?
港灣家族辦公室
joined discussion · May 19 11:06

Financial Daily: The US-Iran situation is affecting market sentiment, with mixed performance in US stocks during the closing rebound; crude oil surged over 3%.

- Key Focus
US President Trump stated that the planned Tuesday attack on Iran has been suspended, but an offensive will still be launched if no agreement is reached.
The Kremlin stated that Russia has 'very high expectations' for Putin's visit to China.
The US extends the maritime crude oil sanctions exemption for Russia by 30 days.
German Finance Minister Klindt stated that G7 countries have several options for seeking to reduce dependence on rare earths, and it is urgent.
Content compiled by 'Harbor Family Office,' a subsidiary of Henry Jia Group. It does not constitute any investment or trading advice. Stay tuned.
Content compiled by 'Harbor Family Office,' a subsidiary of Henry Jia Group. It does not constitute any investment or trading advice. Stay tuned.
- Stock Market
[US Market] The three major US stock indexes closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing higher against the trend.
On Monday, the US stock market saw significant fluctuations amid reports between the US and Iran. Before the US market opened, there were reports that the US agreed to temporarily exempt sanctions on Iranian oil during negotiations, and Iran had agreed to a long-term freeze of its nuclear program, causing US stocks to open significantly higher. Subsequently, the White House denied the above content, causing US stocks to reverse their gains into losses. In the final hour of trading, Trump stated he suspended the planned offensive against Iran scheduled for Tuesday due to requests from multiple Middle Eastern countries, leading to a rebound in US stocks. By the close, the three major US indexes ended mixed, with technology stocks weighing on the broader market.
At the close, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.07% to 7,403.05 points; the Nasdaq Index dropped 0.51% to 26,090.734 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.32% to 49,686.12 points. The VIX Volatility Index fell 3.36% to 17.81 points. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index declined 2.47% to 11,302.52 points.
The index of the seven major US tech giants fell 0.57%, with Microsoft rising 0.38%, Amazon climbing 0.27%, Apple dropping 0.80%, NVIDIA falling 1.33%, and Tesla plunging 2.90%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index dropped 0.72% to 6,790.67 points. Among popular Chinese stocks, Li Auto fell nearly 10%, Nio and Xpeng both slid over 3%, Alibaba rose 0.51%, and Xiaomi gained 1.60%. Regarding individual stocks, Taiwan Semiconductor fell 2.10% and Circle dropped 2.22%.
[European Market] Major European indexes closed higher across the board.
On Monday, major European indexes closed higher across the board. At the close, the pan-European STOXX 600 Index rose 0.54% to 610.17 points; the pan-European STOXX 50 Index climbed 0.36% to 5,849.00 points.
Germany’s DAX 30 Index rose 1.49% to 24,307.92 points; France’s CAC 40 Index increased 0.44% to 7,987.49 points; the UK’s FTSE 100 Index gained 1.26% to 10,323.75 points; Italy’s FTSE MIB Index fell 0.91% to 48,669.05 points.
[Asian Markets] Asian stock markets were mixed on Monday, with South Korea's index rebounding in a V-shaped recovery.
Asian stock markets were mixed on Monday, with South Korea's index rebounding in a V-shape. At the close, Japan's Nikkei 225 Index fell 0.97% to 60,815.95 points; South Korea's KOSPI Index rose 0.31% to 7,516.04 points; Singapore's FTSE Straits Times Index increased by 0.15% to 4,996.75 points; Thailand's SET Index dropped 0.01% to 1,517.74 points.
[Hong Kong Market] Hong Kong stocks opened lower and continued to decline throughout the day, with the Hang Seng Tech Index falling nearly 2%.
Hong Kong stocks continued to decline on Monday, trading lower throughout the session, with the Hang Seng Tech Index dropping nearly 2%. At the close, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.11% to 25,675.18 points; the Hang Seng Tech Index declined 1.95% to 4,844.94 points; the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped 1.07% to 8,597.97 points. In terms of sectors, auto stocks fell across the board, with Li Auto down over 14%, Leapmotor down over 7%, and Nio down more than 3%; semiconductor stocks retreated, with Innoscience closing down about 7% and SMIC down over 3%. Following news that China Telecom, China Unicom, and China Mobile, the three major telecom operators, are set to launch Token packages, their shares all closed higher, with China Telecom rising 6.02%.
[A-share Market] A-shares trended downward, with the three major indexes closing lower.
Chinese mainland stocks trended downward, with the three major indices all closing lower. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.09% to 4,131.53 points; the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.20% to 15,530.23 points; and the ChiNext Index declined 0.36% to 3,914.88 points. In terms of sector performance, storage chip stocks surged against the market trend due to strong demand, with many manufacturers signing long-term strategic agreements. Backed by robust earnings, stocks like Tongyou Technology and Dapu Microelectronics hit the 20% upside limit, while Netac Technology and Wanrun Technology rose over 10%. The three major telecom operators saw their shares collectively rise after announcing the launch of Token-based commercial services: China Telecom surged 7.74%, China Unicom rose 5.58%, and China Mobile gained 2.43%.
- Bonds
[US Treasuries] US Treasury yields edged slightly higher.
US Treasury yields fluctuated significantly throughout the day, closing slightly higher towards the end. In late New York trading, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose 1.40 basis points to 4.6073%, while the yield on the two-year note increased 0.46 basis points to 4.0734%.
[Non-US Bond Markets] Yields on government bonds in major European countries continued to decline.
Yields on government bonds in major European countries continued to decline, with Germany's 10-year bond yield falling 1.9 basis points to 3.148%, and its two-year yield dropping 2.8 basis points to 2.710%. The UK's 10-year bond yield fell 7.4 basis points to 5.098%. France's 10-year bond yield declined by 4.0 basis points, while Italy's 10-year bond yield fell 3.7 basis points.
[China Bond Market] Treasury futures strengthened across the board on Monday
Government bond futures strengthened across the board on Monday. The 30-year bond main contract rose 0.08%, the 10-year bond main contract increased 0.09%, the 5-year bond main contract gained 0.07%, and the two-year bond main contract climbed 0.03%.
– Foreign exchange
[Dollar] The US Dollar Index declined, while the British pound rose over 0.7%.
In late New York trading, the ICE US Dollar Index fell 0.3% to 98.978 points, with a sharp decline from 99.2 points during the session; the Bloomberg Dollar Index dropped 0.23% to 1,199.90 points.
The US dollar weakened against most major global currencies. The US dollar rose 0.09% against the yen to 158.89 yen; the euro gained 0.2% against the US dollar, the pound rose 0.74% against the US dollar, the US dollar fell 0.29% against the Swiss franc, and the Australian dollar climbed 0.22% against the US dollar.
[Renminbi] The US dollar versus offshore renminbi settled at 6.7993 yuan.
In late New York trading, the US dollar versus offshore renminbi fell 146 points compared to the previous trading day's close, settling at 6.7993 yuan. Onshore renminbi versus the US dollar rose 73 points from the previous trading day’s closing price to settle at 6.7979 yuan.
[Virtual Assets] Bitcoin dropped approximately 1.7%, with the price reaching $77,000.
On Monday, virtual currencies declined overall, with Bitcoin dropping approximately 1.7%, with the price reaching $77,000. Ethereum fell more than 3%, settling at $2,116.
– Products
[Energy] US crude oil futures surged over 3%.
Oil prices fluctuated sharply due to constantly changing news about the US and Iran. In late New York trading, US crude oil futures rose 3.07%, settling at $108.66 per barrel.
[Precious Metals] Precious metal prices rose broadly, with spot gold increasing over 0.5%.
Precious Metals:Gold strengthened, with spot gold rising 0.55% in late New York trading to settle at $4,564.90 per ounce; US gold futures gained 0.16% to settle at $4,569.30 per ounce.
Metals Futures Market:Precious metals generally rose, with spot silver up about 2.1% to $77.5614 per ounce in late New York trading; US silver futures rose about 0.6% to $77.995 per ounce. US copper futures climbed 0.55% to $6.3305 per pound. Spot platinum increased by 0.06%, and spot palladium rose 0.4%.
[Disclaimer]
The above content is provided by Harbor Family Office (hereinafter referred to as "Harbor Family Office"), summarized from various market information sources. Harbor Family Office and its group members did not participate in preparing the content nor explicitly or implicitly endorse it. This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment or trading advice. Investment involves risks. Readers should independently assess and judge this material and are advised to seek professional opinions before making any related investments or trades. Without authorization, no one may reproduce, copy, or publish this content in whole or in part to the public in any manner. Copyright belongs to Harbor Family Office and related providers.
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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