Kuaishou (1024) Technical Strategy: Hold above 47 for potential low accumulation, a breakout above 53 indicates strength, a drop below 47 tests 45

Kuaishou has once again become one of the focal points of highly divided market sentiment recently. Amidst the overall volatility in tech stocks, its share price remains under pressure. The market is gradually transitioning from earlier optimism about AI and Kelin concepts to skepticism and defensiveness. Some investors still believe that Kuaishou has the conditions for a rebound, considering the current situation as merely an emotional pullback; however, another group of capital has started to worry that the previous uptrend may have ended, with funds at higher levels possibly retreating.

Market commentary reveals that Kuaishou’s most prominent feature at present is 'the more it falls, the more people want to pick the bottom.' A large number of investors have begun discussing entry points at HKD 48, 47, 46, or even 43, indicating that there is still considerable capital waiting to buy on dips. This situation often reflects that the market hasn’t completely given up hope, but also shows that investors are no longer willing to chase prices at higher levels and are instead adopting a conservative strategy.

Some bullish funds believe that Kuaishou's popularity remains very high, and with the continued narrative of AI concepts and Cleen’s valuation, the stock price may not remain depressed in the long term. Comments such as 'rebound,' 'large orders coming in,' 'buy at 49, sell at 59,' 'buy when others sell,' and 'bottom fishing' keep appearing, indicating that there is still considerable short-term capital hoping to capitalize on technical rebounds.

What remains the most watched by the market is still Kelin’s valuation and the AI narrative. Some investors believe that Kelin’s valuation has reached USD 10 billion, while Kuaishou’s overall valuation is only about USD 7 billion, reflecting that some still think the company is undervalued. This sentiment is actually quite similar to the recent speculation logic behind AI concept stocks... The market isn’t just looking at short-term profitability but is betting on the platform's future value.

The issue, however, is that the market's confidence in Kuaishou has clearly weakened compared to before. Comments like 'selling at highs,' 'short selling,' 'big players offloading at peaks,' 'turning bearish,' and 'it will fall again' are starting to appear frequently, indicating that some funds have begun to question whether the previous rebound was merely short-term speculation.

More importantly, many investors are no longer simply bearish but are starting to enter a 'trapped' state. For example, comments like 'didn't sell at 52, didn’t sell at 49 either,' 'stuck with shares bought at 49 or 50,' and 'how are the brothers who bought at the peak doing?' already reflect growing regret in the market. This type of sentiment typically indicates that the market is gradually shifting from optimism to defense.

In terms of technical trends, Kuaishou’s short-term direction currently appears weak. The stock price has been repeatedly falling recently, and the market is becoming increasingly sensitive about support near 49. Judging from the comment structure, the range between 47 and 49 has become the most important psychological zone for the short term. Many investors have started discussing topics like 'breaking below 49,' 'closing at 47,' 'when will it break 47,' and 'gap down at 48,' indicating that the market is beginning to worry about the loss of support levels.

In terms of support levels, the first short-term observation is whether the 47 region can hold steady. If 47 fails, market sentiment could deteriorate further, as a large amount of bottom-fishing and short-term trading capital is concentrated in this area. Once it breaks down, more stop-losses and panic selling could be triggered.

As for resistance levels, the market is currently observing the 50 to 52.5 range. This is because many investors still expect a rebound above 50, and some funds believe that 52.5 could be reached in the next trading session. However, the problem is that current market buying power is clearly weaker than before. If subsequent trading volume does not follow through, even if there is a short-term rebound, profit-taking at higher levels could easily occur again.

The biggest issue in the market right now is not that the company has completely lost its story, but that capital is beginning to lose faith in the sustainability of the hype. Some investors have explicitly stated that Kuaishou’s current fluctuations are even less favorable than before 2024, while others believe that management actions and market operations have reduced investment value. These sentiments reflect growing doubts about the company’s long-term image.

Additionally, a strong sense of 'retail investor panic' is starting to emerge. Comments like 'disastrous,' 'trampling over each other,' 'the moment I buy, it drops,' and 'just a blade of韭菜 (leek)' indicate that many retail investors are being tormented by volatility. Such emotions often make the market more unstable in the short term, as investors tend to rush to exit during rebounds.

On the other hand, the market hasn't completely given up. Many investors still believe that Kuaishou needs to first trigger panic selling before rebounding again. This indicates that some market participants still think this is just a phase of profit-taking rather than a long-term bearish trend.

The most noteworthy aspect is that the market’s attitude towards Kuaishou has shifted from 'believing it will keep rising' to 'just waiting for a rebound to exit or short-term trading.' This shift is crucial because when the market starts transitioning from a long-term holding mentality to focusing on short-term swings, stock price volatility tends to intensify further.

Strategically, at this stage, it’s more suitable to wait for market sentiment to stabilize before making any moves. If the price can hold above 47 yuan and trading volume with capital inflow picks up again, there may still be an opportunity for the stock to rebound above 50 yuan. However, if 47 yuan is decisively broken, the stock might easily test lower levels in the short term.

Overall, Kuaishou has now entered a high-volatility, highly emotional phase. The market hasn’t completely turned bearish but has clearly lost its previous strong confidence. Whether it can regain strength will depend on whether funds are willing to flow back into the technology and AI concept sectors and whether the level around 47 yuan can hold.

@Yang Yanqin@杨燕琴: Market interest still exists, but currently, the market places more emphasis on capital support rather than just hype.

@Almost100@快100: Short-selling pressure remains present, but if the stock can stabilize above 50 yuan again, short covering pressures may increase.

@TomCruise@湯姆克魯斯: The market does still evaluate Kuaishou's value using AI and innovative concepts, but short-term sentiment among funds has started to turn conservative.

@韮maker@努力唔做韮菜: There has indeed been an increase in large order activity recently, but the market remains divided on the main direction.

Key deployment for Kuaishou-W (01024): Current price 48.42 HKD, support at 47 HKD, resistance at 53 HKD; holding above 47 HKD allows continued accumulation on pullbacks, breaking through 53 HKD could signal a renewed strengthening, but if it breaks below 47 HKD, be cautious of further downside towards the 45 HKD area.

Strategy 1 | Buy on Dip

27772 | Strike price 50.88 HKD | Actual leverage 3.9x | Close to current price, suitable for deploying a rebound after a pullback, with relatively slower time decay.

27802 | Strike price 50 HKD | Actual leverage 4.0x | Slightly out-of-the-money, suitable for short-term rebound plays, balanced for both offense and defense.

28020 | Strike price 49.92 HKD | Actual leverage 4.5x | Near at-the-money, higher sensitivity to the underlying stock, suitable for betting on immediate strength.

$UBKUASO@EC2611B.C (27772.HK)$$BPKUASO@EC2611B.C (27802.HK)$$CTKUASO@EC2610A.C (28020.HK)$

Strategy 2 | Breakout Momentum Play

27577 | Strike price 60.29 HKD | Actual leverage 4.6x | A breakout above 53 HKD could amplify upward momentum, suitable for following the trend.

27777 | Strike price 58.05 HKD | Actual leverage 3.5x | Longer maturity, suitable for allowing time for the uptrend to continue.

28967 | Strike price 66.88 HKD | Actual leverage 3.2x | Higher strike price, suitable for those optimistic about a mid-term resurgence in AI concept plays.

$UBKUASO@EC2611A.C (27577.HK)$$UBKUASO@EC2702A.C (27777.HK)$

Strategy Three | Deployment upon breaking through support level

17479 | Strike price 49.83 HKD | Actual leverage 2.4x | Close to current price, suitable for defensive positioning if the support level is broken.

29060 | Strike Price 45 yuan | Actual Leverage 2.3x | Suitable for hedging purposes in anticipation of a continued downtrend, for medium-short term

28376 | Strike Price 32.48 yuan | Actual Leverage 4.5x | Higher leverage, suitable for capturing volatility during a short-term sharp decline

$UBKUASO@EP2612A.P (17479.HK)$$CIKUASO@EP2702A.P (29060.HK)$$UBKUASO@EP2610A.P (28376.HK)$

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, views, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; asset performance should be comprehensively evaluated with other data. Trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's HK Stock Warrants for more professional insights.

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