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港股窩輪Jenny
wrote a post · Apr 23 10:33

Alibaba's stock is locked in a tug-of-war around the key level of HKD 130, which has become the focal point for short-term trading.

$BABA-W (09988.HK)$ The tug-of-war continues as the share price rebounded from the low of HKD 130.4, reflecting some easing of selling pressure compared to before. However, it cannot yet be considered a true strengthening, as resistances at HKD 133.400 and HKD 135.400 remain significant, with the 60-day moving average at HKD 141.343 still higher up, indicating that medium-term pressures have not been fully absorbed.
Market discussions reveal a significant divergence among investors’ views on Alibaba. One camp believes that the stock price is nearing a bottom area, with potential value for adding positions or betting on a rebound near HKD 130 or even HKD 125, setting targets to retest HKD 138 to HKD 140. On the other hand, another group remains bearish, arguing that Alibaba’s rebounds lack sustainability, often reversing after just one day, and even fearing a drop back below HKD 120 or HKD 100. This divergence reflects that the current stock price is still in an uncertain consolidation zone, failing to form a consensus expectation.
Technically, HKD 130.170 is currently the most important short-term inflection point. As long as this level holds and there is a further breakout above HKD 133.400, there may be a short-term opportunity to test HKD 135.400, followed by whether conditions allow challenging higher resistances. However, if HKD 130.170 is breached, a retest of HKD 126.315 should be noted, and the medium-term weak trend could re-emerge. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 51.903, showing only moderate stability in short-term momentum without being particularly strong. Although the current price remains above the middle axis of the Bollinger Bands at HKD 126.315, it is still far from the upper band at HKD 138.226, suggesting that the stock has not yet entered a clearly bullish zone.
At this stage, Alibaba is best viewed through the lens of a post-rebound consolidation. If it can stabilize above HKD 130, the market will naturally begin to discuss the HKD 140 target again; however, repeated failures to hold above HKD 130 would reinforce market perceptions of its weak rebound. For short-term strategies, the focus should not be on predicting too far ahead but rather first on whether HKD 130.170 can hold and whether HKD 133.400 can be broken.
$BABA-W (09988.HK)$ The tug-of-war continues as the share price rebounded from the low of HKD 130.4, reflecting some easing of selling pressure compared to before. However, it cannot yet be considered a true strengthening, as resistances at HKD 133.400 and HKD 135.400 remain significant, with the 60-day moving average at HKD 141.343 still higher up, indicating that medium-term pressures have not been fully absorbed. Market discussions reveal a significant divergence among investors’ views on Alibaba. One camp believes that the stock price is nearing a bottom area, with potential value for adding positions or betting on a rebound near HKD 130 or even HKD 125, setting targets to retest HKD 138 to HKD 140. On the other hand, another group remains bearish, arguing that Alibaba’s rebounds lack sustainability, often reversing after just one day, and even fearing a drop back below HKD 120 or HKD 100. This divergence reflects that the current stock price is still in an uncertain consolidation zone, failing to form a consensus expectation. Technically, HKD 130.170 is currently the most important short-term inflection point. As long as this level holds and there is a further breakout above HKD 133.400, there may be a short-term opportunity to test HKD 135.400, followed by whether conditions allow challenging higher resistances. However, if HKD 130.170 is breached, a retest of HKD 126.315 should be noted, and the medium-term weak trend could re-emerge. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 51.903, showing only moderate stability in short-term momentum without being particularly strong. Although the current price remains above the middle axis of the Bollinger Bands at HKD 126.315, it is still far from the upper band at HKD 138.226...
Key strategy: If the current price remains above HKD 130.170, the short-term outlook suggests a consolidation after a rebound. Holding above HKD 130.170 could initially target HKD 133.400, and breaking above HKD 133.400 might offer a chance to test HKD 135.400. However, if HKD 130.170 is lost, attention should shift to a retest of HKD 126.315, with further downside support seen at HKD 114.404.
Regarding call warrants, $BIALIBA@EC2608E.C (26562.HK)$ The strike price is 150.09 yuan, with the lowest premium and implied volatility among similar products, making it suitable for investors who are optimistic about Alibaba's future performance and wish to control volatility costs and time value decay. Another option is $UBALIBA@EC2608F.C (26538.HK)$ , which also has a strike price of 150.09 yuan. This product offers relatively higher leverage, providing investors who expect the share price to rise with more efficient return potential.
For put warrants, $MSALIBA@EP2609B.P (27282.HK)$ The strike price is 109.9 yuan, with the lowest premium and implied volatility, making it suitable for investors who are bearish on Alibaba’s future performance and seek lower-cost deployment. $UBALIBA@EP2609C.P (27125.HK)$ With the same strike price of 109.9 yuan, this product is known for its ideal leverage and implied volatility, offering investors who are bearish on the market a choice that balances higher efficiency and risk.
Bull certificate recommendation, $UB#ALIBARC26091.C (55197.HK)$ The recovery price is 120 yuan, with relatively high leveraged pricing, suitable for investors who are optimistic about Alibaba's short-term rebound and seek higher leverage effects. Another option $UB#ALIBARC26095.C (57291.HK)$ has a recovery price of 124 yuan, with the lowest premium among similar products and relatively high actual leverage, making it an aggressive choice for those who focus on balancing entry costs and leverage while being optimistic about a stock price rebound.
Bear certificate selection, $JP#ALIBARP2809J.P (57970.HK)$ The recovery price is 149 yuan, offering the highest actual leverage and lowest premium, making it suitable for investors who are bearish on the market and aim to capture stock price declines efficiently. $UB#ALIBARP2810G.P (69096.HK)$ The recovery price is 145 yuan, also characterized by high actual leverage and low premium, serving as a balanced option in terms of risk and reward for bearish strategies.
$BABA-W (09988.HK)$ The tug-of-war continues as the share price rebounded from the low of HKD 130.4, reflecting some easing of selling pressure compared to before. However, it cannot yet be considered a true strengthening, as resistances at HKD 133.400 and HKD 135.400 remain significant, with the 60-day moving average at HKD 141.343 still higher up, indicating that medium-term pressures have not been fully absorbed. Market discussions reveal a significant divergence among investors’ views on Alibaba. One camp believes that the stock price is nearing a bottom area, with potential value for adding positions or betting on a rebound near HKD 130 or even HKD 125, setting targets to retest HKD 138 to HKD 140. On the other hand, another group remains bearish, arguing that Alibaba’s rebounds lack sustainability, often reversing after just one day, and even fearing a drop back below HKD 120 or HKD 100. This divergence reflects that the current stock price is still in an uncertain consolidation zone, failing to form a consensus expectation. Technically, HKD 130.170 is currently the most important short-term inflection point. As long as this level holds and there is a further breakout above HKD 133.400, there may be a short-term opportunity to test HKD 135.400, followed by whether conditions allow challenging higher resistances. However, if HKD 130.170 is breached, a retest of HKD 126.315 should be noted, and the medium-term weak trend could re-emerge. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 51.903, showing only moderate stability in short-term momentum without being particularly strong. Although the current price remains above the middle axis of the Bollinger Bands at HKD 126.315, it is still far from the upper band at HKD 138.226...
Reply to some investors' views:
@阿鱼SenseiIf you didn’t add positions at 129 yuan, the current price is already closer to the threshold, still presenting opportunities, but with less favorable risk-reward than at lower levels; remaining prudent would be monitoring whether 130.170 can hold steady.
@DayDay TraderAt this stage, the stock price is indeed still in the consolidation zone, making it easy to miscalculate the short-term rhythm. Until 133.400 is broken through, the direction remains unclear.
@广东炒粉If it drops back into the double-digit range, it would indicate a significant weakening of momentum. It hasn't reached that point yet, but 130.170 must not be lost.
@11984421If margin financing funds have not significantly entered the market, it will indeed affect the strength of the rebound. Therefore, resistance near 133.400 will be even harder to break through in one go.
@熊成140 yuan is one of the common market targets, but for now, we need to gradually address 133.400 and 135.400; it's not advisable to look too far ahead at once.
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Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
#HKStocks #Real-TimeAnalysis #WarrantPick #WarrantGuide #DerivativesHedging #HKWarrantsJenny #Alibaba #09988 #Blue-ChipStocks #TechnicalAnalysis$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$$Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (800100.HK)$
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