Orient Securities: Reiterates 'Buy' rating for Leadbiologics-B (09887) with a target price of HKD 103.06

According to Zhitong Finance APP, Orient Securities issued a research report stating that based on the 2025 annual report and the latest clinical progress, it has adjusted Leadbiologics-B (09887) $LEADS BIOLABS-B (09887.HK)$ Earnings per share forecasts for 2026-2028 are -1.41, -0.44, and 0.04 yuan respectively (original forecasts for 2026-2028 were -1.66, -1.29, and 3.18 yuan). Using the DCF valuation method, a target price of HKD 103.06 is assigned (based on an exchange rate of 1 HKD = 0.87697 CNY), and the 'Buy' rating is maintained.

The main viewpoints of Orient Securities are as follows:

Event

The company is expected to achieve revenue of 180 million yuan in 2025, primarily due to the 25 million USD upfront payment and milestone payments received after the successful business development (BD) of LBL-047, which will significantly boost the company’s revenue.

Clinical progress is proceeding smoothly, and LBL-024 is about to enter a key overseas expansion window.

As of the end of March, LBL-024 has advanced nine clinical studies across 13 solid tumor indications, with over 600 patients enrolled cumulatively. Among them: 1) The Phase III pivotal registration clinical study for third-line plus extrapulmonary neuroendocrine carcinoma completed full patient enrollment in August 2025 and is expected to submit a Biologics License Application (BLA) in Q3 2026; 2) The Phase II clinical trial for first-line/second-line plus non-small cell lung cancer has enrolled over 100 patients so far, with full enrollment expected by Q2 2026; 3) LBL-024 has also initiated Phase II proof-of-concept (POC) trials for six major indications including first-line advanced melanoma, first-line cholangiocarcinoma, first-line hepatocellular carcinoma, platinum-resistant ovarian cancer, first-line/second-line triple-negative breast cancer, and first-line esophageal squamous cell carcinoma, all of which have completed the enrollment of the first patient. Notably, the first-line cholangiocarcinoma indication has successfully entered the expansion phase; 4) Additionally, the company plans to conduct POC trials for LBL-024 in first-line gastric or gastroesophageal junction adenocarcinoma and gastrointestinal tumors. Based on LBL-024's clinical progress, its core indication key data is expected to be released at the WCLC and ESMO conferences in September this year, validating its potential value in major diseases and pan-tumor fields, and potentially entering a key overseas BD window.

Phase II rapid enrollment is underway, with anticipation for large-scale data readouts from LBL-034.

To date, the Phase I/II clinical trial of LBL-034 for relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma has enrolled nearly 100 patients and may see expanded sample data readouts at this year’s R&D Day, solidifying its global Best-in-Class (BIC) status. The firm believes that as products like tri-specific antibodies and CAR-T expand into frontline treatments, the population of patients previously treated with BCMA continues to grow, making LBL-034’s BD value considerable.

Platform capabilities are beginning to show, with First-in-Class (FIC) pipelines poised for launch.

Based on its three platforms—IO bispecifics/TCE/ADC—the company has developed next-generation global FIC pipelines. Among these, LBL-054 (CDH17/CD3 ADC), LBL-061 (EGFR/PDL1 ADC), LBL-066 (PD-L1/4-1BB tri-specific antibody), and LBL-076 (CD38/GPRC5D/CD3 TCE) are expected to file IND applications in both China and the US in Q4 2026 or Q1 2027, providing the company with next-generation potential pipelines.

Risk Warning

Risks include failure in innovative drug development, commercialization falling short of expectations, intensifying market competition, loss of key personnel, and valuation risks.

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