After rebounding, the Hong Kong Exchange has stabilized but resistance remains unbroken; the market is watching cautiously, with $417 becoming the short-term critical level.

The Hong Kong Exchange has continued to recover from its low of $379.000, currently trading at $415.4 and moving back near several short-term moving averages, showing more stability in the short term. However, the stock price has not yet broken through the resistance zone between $417.000 and $419.819, meaning that overall it is still in a consolidation pattern following the rebound, and cannot be considered truly stronger.

Technically, $410.520 is the short-term watershed. As long as the stock price can hold above this level, there is still a chance to challenge $417.000 in the short term, and if it breaks through further, it could test $419.819. Conversely, if it fails to hold above $410.520, one should watch out for the stock price potentially retreating to test support at $408.340. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 60.994, indicating improved short-term momentum. The middle line of the Bollinger Bands is at $400.130, with the current price above it, reflecting greater stability compared to before. However, since the overhead resistance has not been broken, the risk-reward ratio remains neutral at this stage, making it more suitable to wait for confirmation of a breakout or monitor buying support near key support levels.

From the comments, market sentiment appears to be mainly on the sidelines, leaning towards caution. Some investors believe that the Hong Kong Exchange’s trend is still relatively weak, with significant resistance above. Even after the rebound, it has not been enough to rebuild a strong image, so they are hesitant to chase the stock aggressively. Other comments reflect doubts about whether the Hong Kong Exchange can outperform the broader market or break free from its sideways grinding pattern, showing insufficient short-term confidence. However, some voices suggest that there is already decent buying support around $410. If it can hold steady, the trend may have room for further recovery.

The most common questions in the market currently focus on three areas. First, whether the Hong Kong Exchange can outperform the Hang Seng Index in the short term and regain stronger performance. Second, whether the current price level is still relatively weak and whether it is worth chasing near the resistance zone. Third, if the stock price holds above support, whether it can move higher afterward. These questions indicate that the market has not yet fully turned optimistic about the Hong Kong Exchange, and more investors are waiting for confirmation of a breakout.

Reply to market investor viewpoints

@Bull Market, Short Bear Mayor@牛市短熊市長

If other stocks show stronger momentum, the Hong Kong Exchange will naturally appear slower in comparison; at this stage, the ability to break through is still key.

@Disciple of the Law of Attraction@吸引力法則門徒

The range between HKD 417.000 and HKD 419.819 is indeed a significant resistance area at this stage; whether the short-term trend can rise further depends on breaking through this level.

@The Secretary Niu's Lover@牛秘書的情人

The area near HKD 410 does show some support at present; whether it can hold is crucial.

@Skilled Zelda

If it can stabilize above HKD 410.520 and break through HKD 417.000, there will be potential for further upward movement.

@28358160@28358160

After retreating from the high and then recovering, this remains the current pattern; the short-term trend has not weakened but also hasn’t fully strengthened yet.

Hong Kong Exchange (00388) Key Strategy: HKD 410.520 is the watershed. Stabilizing above this level could lead to further recovery and testing of HKD 417 and HKD 419.819; breaking through HKD 417 allows for following the uptrend. If it fails to hold above HKD 410.520, it may retreat to test HKD 408.340.

Strategy One | Breakthrough 417 to Capture Upside with Call Options

28021 | Strike Price 480.2 | Actual Leverage 9.8x | Mid-distance Out-of-the-Money, High Sensitivity, Suitable for Capturing Acceleration After Breakout

28035 | Strike Price 480.2 | Actual Leverage 9.6x | Balanced Configuration, Suitable for Stable Trend Following Post-Breakout

27920 | Strike Price 480.2 | Actual Leverage 9.3x | More Stable Time Value, Suitable for Holding Position to Extend the Upside Momentum After Breakout

$CT-HKEX@EC2609A.C (28021.HK)$$BI-HKEX@EC2609C.C (28035.HK)$$UB-HKEX@EC2609C.C (27920.HK)$

Strategy Two | Hold Above 410.520 to Accumulate Call Options at Lower Levels

27304 | Strike Price 518.5 | Actual Leverage 8.7x | Mid-distance Out-of-the-Money, Balanced Risk-Reward, Suitable for Phased Accumulation During Consolidation

26971 | Strike Price 518 | Actual Leverage 9.1x | Higher Leverage, Suitable for Amplifying Volatility in Short-term Rebound Segments

27341 | Strike Price 509.38 | Actual Leverage 11.0x | Closer-to-Money Design, Suitable for Capturing Elasticity on Short-Term Rebound After Stabilization

$UB-HKEX@EC2610A.C (27304.HK)$$CT-HKEX@EC2611A.C (26971.HK)$$HS-HKEX@EC2609B.C (27341.HK)$

Strategy Three | If Below 410.520, Go Short

21973 | Strike Price 360 | Actual Leverage 16.2x | Close-to-Money High Elasticity, Suitable for Immediately Capturing Pullback After Breaching the Watershed

22463 | Strike Price 359.8 | Actual Leverage 15.9x | Moderate leverage, suitable for a pullback within the 408–400 range

21985 | Strike Price 359.8 | Actual Leverage 15.7x | More stable positioning, suitable for holding amid an expected continued downtrend

Friendly Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data and should not solely rely on this article to make trading decisions. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.

$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ $Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$ $Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (800100.HK)$

98K Views