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港股窩輪Jenny
wrote a column · Apr 21 09:52

April 20th [HK Stocks Podcast] Part 2 - JD.com, Goldwind Technologies, AIA

1. JD.com-SW (09618.HK): Investors noted that the three major platforms fell again, and questioned how much room is left for JD.com. Some investors are also paying attention to call warrants with a strike price of 126.98 yuan.
JD.com has seen a significant rebound from its lows and has turned stronger, but the upside potential is now entering a resistance zone, no longer presenting high reward-to-risk opportunities from lower levels.
Technically speaking, the share price has risen steadily from a low of HK$91.99 and is currently trading at HK$122.40, firmly above multiple medium- and short-term moving averages, indicating a clear uptrend. In the short term, it briefly touched a high of HK$124.30, suggesting buying interest. However, note that the RSI has climbed to over 80, which is considered overbought, while the upper Bollinger Band lies around HK$124. The current price is already close to or touching this level, indicating that although short-term momentum remains strong, the upside potential is beginning to narrow.
For investors concerned about 'all three platforms falling together and how much room is left for JD.com,' the first technical step isn’t looking too far ahead but focusing on whether the short-term high of HK$124.30 can be effectively broken. If it fails to break through, the stock is likely to consolidate at these elevated levels, potentially even retreating to test support around HK$118-116 to digest recent gains before deciding on the next direction. In other words, there’s still some room, but the dynamic has shifted from 'smooth advancement' to 'gradually digesting pressure while rising.'
As for investors watching call warrants with a strike price of HK$126.98, this strategy represents a typical 'near-the-money, slightly out-of-the-money, betting on a breakout' approach. At the current price of around HK$122, reaching HK$126.98 would require the stock to not only break through HK$124.30 but also sustain the upward momentum. If the price fails to hold at these higher levels or experiences a pullback, time decay on such call warrants could accelerate. Therefore, the key isn’t the strike price itself but whether the stock can first stabilize above HK$122 and then surpass HK$124.30.
Overall, JD.com remains strong in the short term but has entered a high-price zone, shifting its risk-reward ratio from high to moderate. The key going forward isn’t about chasing further gains, but whether it can break through and stabilize above 124.30 yuan. If it breaks through, there will be more upside potential; if not, it's more likely to consolidate or even pull back from these highs. $UB#JDCOMRP2808A.P (56694.HK)$$BIJDCOM@EP2606A.P (20969.HK)$$HSJDCOM@EP2606B.P (21128.HK)$
1. JD.com-SW (09618.HK): Investors noted that the three major platforms fell again, and questioned how much room is left for JD.com. Some investors are also paying attention to call warrants with a strike price of 126.98 yuan. JD.com has seen a significant rebound from its lows and has turned stronger, but the upside potential is now entering a resistance zone, no longer presenting high reward-to-risk opportunities from lower levels. Technically speaking, the share price has risen steadily from a low of HK$91.99 and is currently trading at HK$122.40, firmly above multiple medium- and short-term moving averages, indicating a clear uptrend. In the short term, it briefly touched a high of HK$124.30, suggesting buying interest. However, note that the RSI has climbed to over 80, which is considered overbought, while the upper Bollinger Band lies around HK$124. The current price is already close to or touching this level, indicating that although short-term momentum remains strong, the upside potential is beginning to narrow. For investors concerned about 'all three platforms falling together and how much room is left for JD.com,' the first technical step isn’t looking too far ahead but focusing on whether the short-term high of HK$124.30 can be effectively broken. If it fails to break through, the stock is likely to consolidate at these elevated levels, potentially even retreating to test support around HK$118-116 to digest recent gains before deciding on the next direction. In other words, there’s still some room, but the dynamic has shifted from 'smooth advancement' to 'gradually digesting pressure while rising.' As for the investors focusing on call warrants with a strike price of 126.98 yuan, this type of strategy is a typical 'near-the-money, slightly out-of-the-money, betting on a breakout' approach. At the current price of 1...
2. Goldwind Technologies (02208.HK): Investors are looking forward to breaking through 17.30 yuan tomorrow, potentially reaching 17.61 yuan. Some investors are also watching call warrants with a strike price of 23.88 yuan.
Goldwind Technology’s short-term trend has clearly strengthened, with the stock closing at 16.93 yuan on April 20, rising over 9% in a single day. The closing price is also nearing recent highs, reflecting continued interest from investors. From a daily chart perspective, the stock price has been gradually moving higher along the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, currently remaining above several short-term averages, indicating a strong upward momentum. The upper Bollinger Band is around 16.35 yuan, and the current price has risen above this level, showing strong short-term momentum. However, it also suggests that the stock is entering an overheated zone, meaning while the uptrend isn’t over, volatility could increase. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen above 82, further confirming the stock’s short-term overheated condition.
Regarding investors expecting a breakthrough above 17.30 yuan tomorrow, or even targeting 17.61 yuan, this view has some technical basis. The stock price is now clearly approaching the upper resistance zone. With continued short-term buying, it indeed has the potential to first challenge the nearby high around 17.18 yuan before pushing towards 17.30 yuan. If 17.30 yuan can be surpassed, the market will naturally look higher, with 17.61 yuan becoming the next target. However, it should be noted that after consecutive rallies, the stock is no longer in the low-price starting zone. If buying support is insufficient during tomorrow’s upward push, the likelihood of high volatility or consolidation will increase. Hence, 17.30 yuan will be a critical short-term observation level.
As for investors watching call warrants with an exercise price of 23.88 yuan, this kind of strategy reflects a more aggressive outlook. At the current price of 16.93 yuan, 23.88 yuan is considered deep out-of-the-money, suggesting that investors are not merely betting on a small rebound but are anticipating a significant extension of the uptrend. If the underlying stock only experiences a short-term spike followed by consolidation, the reaction of these deep out-of-the-money call warrants might not be immediate. Only when the underlying stock continues to show strength and breaks through 17.30 yuan or moves higher will the logic behind such product positioning become more valid.
Overall, Goldwind Technology’s short-term sentiment remains strong, and the market indeed has grounds to watch whether it can break through 17.30 yuan. A successful breakout would naturally lead to expectations of higher levels; if it fails, caution is needed against potential consolidation after a sharp rise. At this stage, the focus is no longer on whether the stock is turning stronger but on whether this strength can be sustained.
3. AIA (01299.HK): Some investors believe that the stock is preparing to rise to 90 yuan after adjusting significantly from its peak. These investors are considering buying call warrants to bet on a rebound, with a strike price of 92.93 yuan.
AIA has yet to show clear signs of strengthening. Although it has pulled back from its peak of 92.15 yuan and undergone some adjustment, the stock closed at 83.50 yuan on April 20, still trading below multiple short-term moving averages. This indicates the stock remains in a post-correction consolidation pattern and hasn’t officially started a strong rebound yet.
Technically, there seems to be preliminary support around 83 yuan, but noticeable resistance remains between 85 yuan and 86 yuan. The middle line of the Bollinger Bands is also near 85.50 yuan, meaning the stock has yet to return to a stronger region. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at approximately 40 suggests the downward trend has slowed but hasn’t shown clear signs of renewed strength. Therefore, for the stock to aim for 90 yuan, it must first regain and stabilize above 85 yuan before gradually overcoming higher resistance levels. At this stage, directly targeting 90 yuan remains overly optimistic.
For investors who think the stock has adjusted significantly from its peak and want to buy call warrants betting on a rebound with a strike price of 92.93 yuan, this strategy represents an aggressive outlook expecting a sustained recovery. At the current price of 83.50 yuan, 92.93 yuan is relatively high, indicating expectations for more than just a minor short-term bounce. The expectation is that the stock will rebound steadily from the current level and overcome multiple previous resistances. However, if the stock fails to stabilize in the 85-86 yuan range first, this warrant strategy could become passive.
Overall, AIA currently appears to be attempting to stabilize after an adjustment, rather than being ready to directly surge to $90. If it can first rebound above $85 in the short term, the rally may gradually expand; otherwise, it should still be viewed as a consolidating pattern. $BI-AIA @EP2612A.P (22385.HK)$$UB-AIA @EP2612A.P (24372.HK)$$HS#AIA RP2812B.P (62423.HK)$$JP#AIA RP2810A.P (64159.HK)$
1. JD.com-SW (09618.HK): Investors noted that the three major platforms fell again, and questioned how much room is left for JD.com. Some investors are also paying attention to call warrants with a strike price of 126.98 yuan. JD.com has seen a significant rebound from its lows and has turned stronger, but the upside potential is now entering a resistance zone, no longer presenting high reward-to-risk opportunities from lower levels. Technically speaking, the share price has risen steadily from a low of HK$91.99 and is currently trading at HK$122.40, firmly above multiple medium- and short-term moving averages, indicating a clear uptrend. In the short term, it briefly touched a high of HK$124.30, suggesting buying interest. However, note that the RSI has climbed to over 80, which is considered overbought, while the upper Bollinger Band lies around HK$124. The current price is already close to or touching this level, indicating that although short-term momentum remains strong, the upside potential is beginning to narrow. For investors concerned about 'all three platforms falling together and how much room is left for JD.com,' the first technical step isn’t looking too far ahead but focusing on whether the short-term high of HK$124.30 can be effectively broken. If it fails to break through, the stock is likely to consolidate at these elevated levels, potentially even retreating to test support around HK$118-116 to digest recent gains before deciding on the next direction. In other words, there’s still some room, but the dynamic has shifted from 'smooth advancement' to 'gradually digesting pressure while rising.' As for the investors focusing on call warrants with a strike price of 126.98 yuan, this type of strategy is a typical 'near-the-money, slightly out-of-the-money, betting on a breakout' approach. At the current price of 1...
Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data and should not solely rely on this article to make trading decisions. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.
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Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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