Short-covering vs. continued weakness: Kuaishou's short-term value betting depends on whether it can hold above 44.2 yuan

Kuaishou-W (01024) continued its weak performance on April 13. Around 1:55 PM, the stock price hovered near HK$44.5, closing the morning session down approximately 1.42%. The Hang Seng Tech Index $Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$ fell 0.98% on the same day, with tech stocks generally under pressure; Tencent fell nearly 3%, and Baidu dropped about 2.6%. Kuaishou's short-selling ratio once reached as high as 93.15%, indicating a strong risk-averse sentiment in the market.

From the daily chart perspective, the stock price hit a low of HK$44.24, just a step away from the previous low of HK$44.20, remaining in a weak sideways trend overall. Although the current price is barely holding above the previous low of HK$44.20, all moving averages—the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, 30-day, 60-day, 120-day, and 250-day—are above the current price, meaning the medium-term downtrend has yet to reverse.

What the market truly worries about is not the daily fluctuation, but whether Kuaishou can shake off its weak performance label.

Technical Analysis and Key Levels

Technical Structure: The stock price has broken below all short-, medium-, and long-term moving averages, showing overall weakness. The current price is some distance away from the 5-day moving average (around HK$45.90), and a short-term recovery requires reclaiming that line for stabilization.

Key Support: HK$44.20 to HK$44.00 (recent low support zone, also the most critical short-term defense line); if breached, the next support level would be HK$42.68, with major support at HK$39.39.

Key Resistance: HK$45.60 to HK$46.34 (area where the 5-day and 10-day lines are located, representing the initial confirmation zone for recovery); if stabilized, the next target would be HK$48.16 to HK$50.65, with further upside seen at HK$54.63.

Line in the Sand: HK$44.20 serves as the short-term defense line, while HK$45.60 to HK$46.34 represents the preliminary confirmation zone for recovery. Until the stock can reclaim levels above HK$46.34, its movement should still be viewed as a weak stock oscillating at lower levels rather than signaling structural strength.

The focus for Kuaishou-W (1024) right now is not how much it rebounded in a single day, but whether the area around HK$45 is just a short-term pause or still part of an ongoing weak consolidation phase. From the latest daily chart, Kuaishou closed at HK$45.14, with an intraday high of HK$46.34 and a low of HK$45.02. Though the stock remains above the recent low of HK$44.20, the overall structure is still weak because the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages are all above the current price, suggesting this rebound is more like a short-term repair following a period of range-bound trading at lower levels rather than a true reversal of the medium-term downtrend.

Technically, the short-term support can first be seen at HKD 44.2 to 44, which is the most direct buying zone in recent days; if it breaks below that, the next level of support would be around HKD 42 to 41. As for resistance levels, first look at HKD 46.3 to 47, and higher up, focus on HKD 49 to 50. Therefore, the most important watershed for Kuaishou right now is clear: near HKD 44 is the short-term defense line, while HKD 46.3 to 47 is the preliminary recovery confirmation level. Unless it returns above HKD 47, the market will naturally continue to interpret this movement as a weak stock’s lower range fluctuations rather than a structural strengthening.

From investors' comments, the biggest consensus in the market isn't optimism but a deeply ingrained negative impression of Kuaishou’s trend. Like @上蒲福将@上蒲福将, @Mr. Dong@栋先生, @Super Invincible, May You Become Extremely Rich@超級無敵大大大大發財, @Humble Sasha@谦逊的莎莎The core complaint in such comments isn’t about a single day's drop of a few points, but rather the feeling that Kuaishou has always given — 'slow rises, quick drops, and rebounds hard to hold.' Once this perception forms, even if the stock price bounces in the short term, the market will still view it with skepticism instead of immediately accepting that it has entered recovery.

Another strong thread in the comments is that Kuaishou has become, in the minds of many investors, a stock to short on an opening rally and to exit on any rebound. Like @股市中的迷途羔羊@股市中的迷途羔羊, @Zizizhi@籽籽籽, @Tianqing Tianqing@天晴晴天、@worse than being a chickenThese kinds of comments reflect a deeper trading habit: the market no longer sees Kuaishou as a stock worth chasing for breakout opportunities, but instead assumes it tends to retrace after a high open or rebound before fading. When a stock gets labeled this way, short-term capital naturally leans toward selling first and watching later, rather than actively chasing prices. This is also why even when Kuaishou occasionally rebounds, the overall perception remains poor.

A deeper issue is that some investors’ skepticism about Kuaishou has escalated from price trends to concerns about fundamentals and future competitiveness. Like @DreamingOfWealth@好想致富, @Ox-Horse Market@牛马市场, @Stock Investor Shi Dingqi@股民史丁奇、@A Chivalrous Spirit Refines the Heart, @HuoHuoHuoMuMu@火火火木木These types of comments are not just complaints about weak stock performance; they now touch on e-commerce GMV, user engagement time, model capabilities, platform competitiveness, and even question whether Kuaishou has lost its long-term narrative. This situation is more concerning than mere technical weakness because once the market loses confidence in both price and story, rebounds are more likely to be seen as exit opportunities rather than new entry points for positioning.

However, the comment section isn't entirely one-sided. Some voices like @RottenSweetPotato@發爛的地瓜, @Bilv Shares@必绿股份, @Sunshine Mountain Retreat Hermit@阳光山居隐士, @Badanmeilin@巴丹梅林, @HappyEveryDay@天天都開心This kind of view clearly still believes that Kuaishou is currently near its low-price zone, at an early stage of a right-side recovery, and it might not be appropriate to be overly pessimistic at these levels. This judgment is not without basis, as the chart shows that the stock price hasn’t broken below recent lows and has started consolidating around the HKD 44 to 45 range. However, this type of positive-leaning view has yet to become mainstream because the market prefers to see the price prove itself first.

And this is exactly the most critical point for Kuaishou right now. It’s not that there’s no speculative value, but rather that the speculative potential heavily depends on whether the price can truly stabilize above the short-term resistance zone. If the HKD 44 to 44.2 range holds firm and gradually reclaims the HKD 46.3 to 47 range, market sentiment towards a 'right-side recovery' will start to increase; however, if it fails to hold even around HKD 44, the market could easily reclassify it as still being in a 'weak trend,' at which point the HKD 42 to 41 range will again come into focus.

In summary, Kuaishou's biggest issue right now isn't whether there will be a short-term rebound, but that this stock has already been labeled with a significant weakness tag in the minds of the market. The comments from users like @上蒲福将, @股市中的迷途羔羊, @好想致富, @未輸光已經滿足, @重生之全仓45成本快手, and @慈祥的米尔顿 may differ in perspective, but they all essentially ask the same question: Does Kuaishou still have a chance to transition from a weak stock to a recoverable state? Based on the current trend, HKD 44 serves as the short-term defensive line, while the HKD 46.3 to 47 range is the initial recovery confirmation level. Only when it stabilizes above these levels will the market be more willing to reconsider the HKD 49 to 50 range; until then, it should still be regarded as an internet stock characterized by low confidence, high divergence, and attempting to stabilize amidst a weak trend.

Three-Phase Strategy for Short-Term Trading of Kuaishou Warrants

Strategy One | If the price stabilizes above HKD 45.60 and breaks through HKD 46.34, consider deploying call warrants for a short-term rebound.

If Kuaishou can stabilize above HKD 45.60 and further break through HKD 46.34, it indicates that after stabilizing at the bottom, there may be an opportunity for a relatively substantial technical rebound. Consider using call warrants for a short-term momentum-based deployment. However, since the overall major trend hasn’t reversed yet, this type of deployment should still be viewed as a rebound play, better suited for short-term trading.

Product Overview

- 27772 $UBKUASO@EC2611B.C (27772.HK)$ | Strike Price HKD 50.88 | Actual Leverage 3.9x | Medium leverage call warrant, suitable for short-term rebound deployment if Kuaishou stabilizes above HKD 45.60 and breaks through HKD 46.34.

- 28048 $HSKUASO@EC2610B.C (28048.HK)$ | Strike Price HKD 50.04 | Actual Leverage 3.9x | Strike price closer to the current price, suitable for those optimistic about a rebound towards the HKD 48 to 50 range.

- 29806 $BIKUASO@EC2607A.C (29806.HK)$ | Strike price 48.93 yuan | Actual leverage 6.1x | Higher leverage, suitable for short-term aggressive deployment aiming to enhance flexibility during the initial breakout phase.

Strategy Two | If the price breaks through 46.34 yuan and advances further towards 48.16 to 50.65 yuan, an aggressive call warrant can be used to follow the trend.

If Kuaishou's price breaks through 46.34 yuan and moves further into the 48.16 to 50.65 yuan range, it indicates that the short-term rebound momentum is expanding. At that point, consider using a more aggressive call warrant to take advantage of the extended rebound phase.

Product Overview

- 27750 $CIKUASO@EC2609A.C (27750.HK)$ | Strike price 46.88 yuan | Actual leverage 4.0x | The strike price is close to the current price, suitable for following the trend after breaking through 46.34 yuan.

- 27056 $MBKUASO@EC2607A.C (27056.HK)$ | Strike price 48.88 yuan | Actual leverage 5.3x | This is a more aggressive call warrant, suitable for deploying in the trend-following stage as the stock price moves toward the 48.16 to 50.65 yuan range.

- 28020 $CTKUASO@EC2610A.C (28020.HK)$ | Strike price 49.92 yuan | Actual leverage 3.9x | Leverage is relatively balanced, making it suitable for strategies expecting a gradual rebound rather than a sharp rise.

Strategy Three | If support at 44.20 yuan is lost, consider deploying put warrants to follow the downtrend.

If Kuaishou falls below 44.20 yuan again, it signals that the temporary stabilization at lower levels has failed and a downtrend may resume. In this scenario, consider using put warrants to hedge against the risk of the stock testing 42.68 yuan or even 39.39 yuan.

Product Overview

- 17479 $UBKUASO@EP2612A.P (17479.HK)$ | Strike price 49.83 yuan | Actual leverage 2.0x | A relatively moderate tool for put warrant deployment, suitable for following the downtrend after Kuaishou falls below 44.20 yuan.

- 24169 $BPKUASO@EP2609A.P (24169.HK)$ | Strike price 66.00 yuan | Actual leverage 1.6x | Lower leverage, suitable for conservative pullback strategies.

- 24339 $HUKUASO@EP2608A.P (24339.HK)$ | Strike price 65.95 yuan | Actual leverage 1.7x | A relatively balanced put warrant, suitable for deploying when the stock price weakens again.

Deployment Summary

The key for Kuaishou at the moment is not whether the bottom has been reached, but whether the stabilization near the previous low of 44.20 yuan can further evolve into a more complete technical rebound. On the afternoon of April 13, the share price hovered around 44.60 yuan, still within a weak sideways range, with a high short-selling ratio reflecting ongoing market risk aversion.

For short-term deployment, it is advisable to use the 45.60 yuan to 46.34 yuan range as the upward confirmation zone: if it successfully stabilizes and breaks through, it can be considered that the rebound may extend to the 48 yuan to 50 yuan range. If it falls below 44.20 yuan again, the focus should shift to an extended downtrend, and the bias should turn weaker in terms of positioning.

Friendly Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data and should not solely rely on this article to make trading decisions. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.

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