Wall Street Daily (April 10): US stocks continued to rebound on Thursday, with a noticeable recovery in sentiment, but have not yet entered a truly comfortable zone; the market continues to replenish risk assets while maintaining defensive positions.

Summary: On Thursday, US stocks continued to rebound, with the S&P 500 up 0.62%, Nasdaq up 0.83%, Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.58%, and Russell 2000 up 0.60%; VIX fell back to 19.49, down 7.37% in a single day, sentiment continued to improve, but has not entered a truly comfortable zone. The most important trading context of the day remained the extension of hopes for an Iranian ceasefire, though risks in the Strait of Hormuz and Lebanon directions have not been resolved, leading the market to continue replenishing risk assets while maintaining positions in oil prices and gold. Meanwhile, US initial jobless claims were slightly higher than expected, and core inflation indicators were also higher than expected, meaning that the macro environment has not provided a new answer indicating 'inflation completely cooling down.' In terms of major asset classes, the US Dollar Index fell 0.23%, gold rose 0.96%, crude oil climbed 1.53% to $97.98, Bitcoin's latest quote was approximately $71,946, up 1.24% in a single day. Overall, the hope for a ceasefire supports the ongoing progress of risk recovery, but the strong performance of oil and gold is also reminding the market: the boundaries of this round of rebound are clearer, still requiring both repair and caution.

I. Major Events

1. Progress in the Iranian ceasefire remains fragile, with the market repairing while staying cautious.

The key theme on Thursday remained news related to the ceasefire. The market extended its optimism from the previous day regarding the Iranian ceasefire, but Lebanon is not within the scope of the ceasefire; meanwhile, there is still the threat of mines in the Strait of Hormuz, indicating that geopolitical risks are far from being fully eliminated. For investors, this state of 'some easing, but not complete' is sufficient to support the continued replenishment of risk assets, but it is not enough for the market to completely withdraw from oil prices, gold, and some safe-haven positions.

2. The US macroeconomic scene shows 'marginal relaxation in employment,' but 'inflation higher than expected.'

Last week, the number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment benefits rose to 219,000, higher than expected, but still within a relatively stable range; meanwhile, the Fed’s preferred core inflation indicator for February remained above expectations. Together, the two sets of data seem to suggest that economic trends are not unilaterally weakening: the employment side shows marginal relaxation, but pricing remains resilient. This combination is not enough to immediately interrupt the rebound momentum, but it will also suppress overly optimistic market expectations of 'rapid, smooth interest rate cuts.'

3. The IMF cuts global growth outlook, setting clearer boundaries for a rebound

The IMF explicitly stated that the war in Iran has forced the organization to lower its upcoming global growth forecast. Even if a ceasefire holds, the war has already harmed the global economy through energy, shipping, and business confidence channels. For the markets, such statements may not be the direct driver of the day's stock index rise, but they make it harder for investors to simply interpret the rebound as 'all risks are completely gone.' Instead, it serves as a reminder: the market recovery is still happening on a more fragile macroeconomic backdrop.

II. Major Trends

As of April 9, this recovery phase had progressed from an 'oversold bounce' to a 'trend-driven recapture of lost ground.' Over the past two weeks, SPY rose by 5.40%, QQQ increased by 6.34%, and IWM climbed 5.87%, indicating that the early-April war shock had been largely offset; however, over a three-month horizon, SPY remains down 1.77% and QQQ is off 2.50%, showing the market hasn't returned to a true mid-term tailwind zone. Structurally, small caps still show strength and breadth advantages, with IWM outperforming SPY (0.84% vs -1.77%) and RSP also beating SPY (0.67% vs -1.77%). In terms of style, SPYV continues to outpace SPYG (0.27% vs -3.51%), suggesting that the underlying structure favoring value stocks remains intact. Meanwhile, SPYG surged 7.38% in two weeks, and MAGS jumped 6.47%, illustrating that short-term aggressive moves are still led by growth assets. This implies that the current rally isn't simply reverting to old抱团 (investment clusters) but rather features a more intense short-term recovery driven by growth assets within a mid-term value-oriented framework.

III. Market Sentiment

Market sentiment continues to recover but hasn't entered a truly comfortable zone yet. The VIX fell to 19.49, indicating a clear easing of the high-pressure sentiment seen in previous days, though it doesn't mean risk appetite is worry-free. The CNN Fear & Greed Index rose from 34 to 36, signaling continued improvement in investor sentiment. However, this reading remains in the fear zone, suggesting the market is still far from full optimism. On the options front, the Put/Call ratio dropped from 0.9544 to 0.9198, showing a decline in demand for protective hedging, though it hasn't reached extremely low levels. Taken together, these three indicators suggest that risk repair is advancing, but comfort isn't fully restored.

IV. Market Scan

1. Index ETFs

Index ETFs continue to strengthen in tandem, but technology maintains a slight edge. QQQ rose 0.68%, leading among major index ETFs, while DIA gained 0.57%, showing relatively weaker momentum. Looking at the four major indices, Thursday’s rise wasn't driven by any single style but was pushed forward collectively by growth, large caps, and small caps, with growth continuing to lead the pack.

2. Sector Performance

Sector-level divergences reveal capital preferences more clearly. Discretionary consumption climbed 1.73%, and industrials rose 1.03%, benefiting from improved risk sentiment and the belief that 'the economy hasn’t stalled.' Conversely, the energy sector dropped 1.24%, making it the weakest performer. This contrast reminds investors that the market isn't blindly chasing gains—capital prefers returning to previously suppressed cyclical and consumer sectors rather than doubling down on energy trades.

3. Seven tech giants

Among the Magnificent Seven tech stocks, higher-elasticity platform names remain favored. Netflix rose 2.68%, making it the strongest performer in the group, while Meta gained 2.61%, extending the recovery momentum of platform-based tech firms. Microsoft, however, declined 0.34%, becoming the weakest in the group. While the tech sector overall remains strong, it has shifted from a 'broad-based recovery' to a more selective phase.

4. Chinese Equities

China-related stocks were one of the most obvious laggards of the day. Alibaba rose 1.88%, one of the few resilient names, but Baidu fell 4.65%, PDD Holdings dropped 3.07%, JD.com slid 2.44%, and Bilibili declined 2.14%. This suggests that Thursday’s global risk sentiment recovery didn’t extend evenly across the China-related internet sector, with funds remaining cautious toward China-linked assets.

5. Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin's latest price hovered around $71,946, rising 1.24% on the day, continuing to climb alongside improving risk sentiment. Among related stocks, RIOT surged 3.60%, amplifying Bitcoin's price elasticity, while CRCL plummeted 9.89%, highlighting significant volatility and divergence within the crypto chain. From a broader market perspective, Thursday’s crypto activity reflects ongoing high-elasticity theme trading rather than a singular confirmation of 'comprehensive risk appetite return.'

$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ $NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ $State Street® SPDR® Dow Jones Industrial Average® ETF Trust (DIA.US)$ $Russell 2000 Index (.RUT.US)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM.US)$ $Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS.US)$ $USD (USDindex.FX)$ $U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$ $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ $XAU/USD (XAUUSD.CFD)$ $SPDR Gold ETF (GLD.US)$ $CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index (.VIX.US)$ $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ $BTC/USD (BTCUSD.CC)$ $Ethereum (ETH.CC)$ $ETH/USD (ETHUSD.CC)$ $iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA.US)$ $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ $Apple (AAPL.US)$

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