March 30 [Hong Kong Stock Podcast] Part 1 - Hang Seng Index, Yangtze Optical Fiber and Cable, Chalco

1. Hang Seng Index: Some investors expressed optimism about a higher opening tomorrow, aiming to challenge the 25,300-point level for a rebound in bull contracts, with a stop-loss at 24,100 points. Bearish investors feel that bear contracts above 25,400 points are relatively safer.

The current price of the Hang Seng Index is 24,750.79 points. The recent noticeable trading range can be seen between 24,203.54 points and 28,056.10 points, with an overall volatility of approximately 15.9%. From a short-term trading perspective, the nearest support level to watch is around 24,540 points, which is near the lower Bollinger Band and also where there has been repeated contention recently. The next support level would be 24,203 points, a clear recent low; if this level breaks again, short-term weakness will deepen further. On the resistance side, the first level to focus on is around 24,990 to 25,000 points because the 5-day moving average is here. Next is around 25,200 points, close to where the 10-day and 250-day moving averages overlap. Investors are closely watching the 25,300-point level as the key resistance area to determine whether the short-term rebound can expand.

In terms of technical status, the moving averages are still generally trending downward, with the 5-day line below the 10-day line, and the 10-day line below the 20-day line, reflecting that the short- to medium-term trend has not yet reversed. The market remains in a weak and volatile pattern. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers between 37 and 42, indicating a weaker condition, showing that although the index is not extremely oversold, buying pressure is still insufficient. Regarding the Bollinger Bands, the index is currently running near the lower band, with the middle band around 25,420 points and the upper band near 26,297 points. This indicates that the market is still in a weaker zone, and any rebound that fails to return above the middle band should be viewed as a temporary fluctuation rather than a definitive strengthening signal.

For an upward movement to occur, trigger conditions must be clear: the index must first hold above 24,540 points and regain stability above 25,000 points. Then it needs to break through 25,200 points to have the potential to formally challenge the 25,300-point level. If there’s just a high opening tomorrow but it fails to hold above 25,000 points or quickly reverses, the high opening itself may not signify strength but could instead indicate short-covering followed by renewed downward pressure. Conversely, downside risks are equally evident. If the index breaks below 24,540 points again, it shows insufficient buying support near the lower band. A drop below 24,203 points would signal a new round of downward exploration, worsening short-term reward-to-risk ratios.

Regarding capital distribution, the bull and bear warrant markets show a clear standoff. The most concentrated trading region for bull warrants is between 24,100 and 24,200 points, showing that some funds are positioning themselves for a rebound when the index approaches lower levels. Trading in bear warrants is mainly focused between 25,000 and 25,200 points, reflecting that many investors are preemptively deploying bearish strategies at the upper resistance zones. In terms of open interest, bull warrants are heavily concentrated between 24,000 and 24,200 points, while bear warrants are clearly clustered between 25,400 and 25,700 points. This indicates a significant concentration of bullish positions at lower levels and defensive bearish positions at higher levels. From this perspective, the market hasn't formed a strong one-sided trend but is clearly divided into two groups—one betting on a rebound from lower levels, and another continuing to position bearishly above 25,000 to 25,400 points.

Returning to the investor's question, the expectation for a higher opening tomorrow and a challenge towards 25,300 points is not entirely unreasonable. However, the premise is that there must be clear triggering conditions in place. At the very least, it needs to stabilize above 25,000 points and then break through 25,200 points; otherwise, 25,300 points will remain a resistance target rather than a highly probable outcome. As for using bull certificates with a recovery price of 24,100 points to bet on a rebound, the logic of this setup is close to where trading volume is most concentrated for bull certificates. The issue, however, is that the recovery price is already very close to the recent low of 24,203 points, leaving limited buffer space. If the index opens higher but weakens or even tests the lows again, the risk of forced liquidation will be quite direct. Therefore, this kind of deployment is considered high-risk short-term trading, and the short-term reward-to-risk ratio isn't particularly attractive unless you have high confidence in the early market movement tomorrow and strictly control the timing.

As for bearish investors who believe that bear certificates above 25,400 points are relatively safer, this statement holds some truth because levels above 25,400 points are already near where bear certificate open interest is concentrated, and it is also higher than the current key short-term resistance level, providing more buffer compared to nearby bear certificates. However, 'relatively safe' does not mean completely safe. If the index can effectively stabilize above 25,200 points and further break through 25,300 points, the market may test 25,400 points or even higher, at which point the safety margin for bear certificates would rapidly shrink. Overall, at this stage, the Hang Seng Index remains in a weak rebound game and has not shown a clear trend reversal. The short-term reward-to-risk ratio is conditional but not high. Bulls should wait for confirmation of a breakout before chasing, while bears need clearer signs of resistance before taking action—otherwise, both sides could easily end up in a tough fight. $BI-HSI @EP2606B.P (24183.HK)$$JP-HSI @EP2605A.P (22976.HK)$$BI#HSI RP2804S.P (68336.HK)$$BI#HSI RP28049.P (68742.HK)$

2. Changfei Fiber Optic Cable (06869.HK): Can the stock maintain above 200 yuan? Some investors have chosen to take profits by exercising call warrants and exiting.

Changfei Fiber Optic Cable is currently priced at 197 yuan, approaching the key psychological level of 200 yuan in the short term. Recently, the clear range of movement has been between 168 yuan and 206.8 yuan, with fluctuations of approximately 23.1%. If we include a larger upward wave, the cumulative rise from the low of 45.64 yuan to the high of 206.8 yuan is substantial. However, for short-term trading, the range between 168 yuan and 206.8 yuan remains more relevant as a consolidation zone near the highs. The nearest support level is around 190.6 yuan, which aligns with the upper Bollinger Band and represents the first critical level that cannot be significantly breached during this short-term uptrend. The next support level is near 179.98 yuan, close to the 5-day moving average. If the stock retreats further, the region between 164.17 yuan and 159.72 yuan serves as an important medium- to short-term support area since both the 10-day and 20-day moving averages converge here. On the resistance side, the first key level is 200 yuan, followed by the intraday high of 201.4 yuan, and finally the recent significant high of 206.8 yuan.

Technically, the moving averages maintain a clear upward alignment: the 5-day moving average is above the 10-day, which in turn is higher than the 20-day, 30-day, and longer-term averages. This indicates that the intermediate-term uptrend remains intact. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 70, reflecting strong momentum, but also suggesting that the stock is in a higher energy zone, meaning short-term volatility could increase. Regarding Bollinger Bands, the price is nearing the upper band, and the bands are expanding, indicating a strong trend. However, this also means the current price is no longer cheap, so entering now requires confirmation of a breakout rather than relying solely on emotional expectations.

For the stock to move higher, the triggering condition is clear: it must first stabilize effectively above 200 yuan and close above this psychological level, with trading volume not showing significant contraction. If these criteria are met, the stock will have the potential to challenge 201.4 yuan and possibly test the recent high of 206.8 yuan. However, if the price merely breaks above 200 yuan intraday but quickly retreats below it or fails to hold above it at the close, this indicates that resistance at the round number level still exists and the breakout is not confirmed. On the downside, if the stock loses support at 190.6 yuan, it signals a slowdown in the short-term uptrend. A drop below 179.98 yuan would mean the loss of 5-day moving average support, increasing short-term correction pressure, potentially leading to a retest of the 164–160 yuan area.

In terms of capital distribution, the warrant market is highly concentrated, with all 32 products being call warrants and no put warrants available, reflecting a unanimous bullish sentiment among market participants. The heaviest trading activity is concentrated between strike prices of 200 yuan and 210 yuan, and open interest is similarly focused in this range, indicating that investors are mainly positioning around whether the stock can break above 200 yuan and extend higher. With both trading volume and open interest concentrated in the same area and no put warrants to divert flow, the market direction appears strongly one-sided, favoring bullish bets. However, when capital becomes overly concentrated on one side, it also implies that if the underlying stock fails to break through key levels, profit-taking pressure may emerge quickly.

To return to the investor's question about whether the stock can stabilize above 200 yuan, the answer is that there is a chance, but confirmation is still needed—it cannot be assumed that simply approaching 200 yuan means stability. The truly effective signal would be if the stock not only rises above 200 yuan but also holds above it at the close, accompanied by further moves toward or beyond 201.4 yuan. Only then can it be considered stable with upside potential opened up. As for investors choosing to exit call warrants to lock in profits, this approach is reasonable because the stock is near a psychological resistance level, RSI is in overbought territory, and Bollinger Bands are near the upper limit, making this a less-than-ideal low-risk entry point. In terms of short-term reward-to-risk ratios, the situation is not without merit, but improvement hinges on confirmation of stabilization above 200 yuan. Until then, taking profits early reflects prudence rather than misjudgment. $MB-YOFC@EC2608B.C (25978.HK)$$JP-YOFC@EC2608A.C (26090.HK)$

3. Chalco (02600.HK): Is it still a good time to enter? At what price? In the warrant market, some investors are targeting 13 yuan, holding call warrants with a strike price of 14.25 yuan.

Chalco is currently trading at 11.60 yuan, rebounding from a recent low of 10.30 yuan. However, overall, the stock has yet to fully escape the downward adjustment pattern following the decline from 15.55 yuan. Based on the recent trading range, the focus is between 10.30 yuan and 15.55 yuan, with total fluctuations of approximately 51.0%. From a short-term trading perspective, the first support level is near 11.35 yuan, close to the 10-day moving average and a crucial level for the recent rebound to hold. The next support level is around 11.07 yuan, near the 5-day moving average. A breakdown below this level would raise concerns of another test of the 10.30 yuan low. On the resistance side, the immediate focus is on the intraday high of 11.86 yuan. Breaking above this level would set sights on 12.00–12.05 yuan, with the more significant resistance at 12.56 yuan, where the 20-day moving average and the middle Bollinger Band lie, marking the short-term boundary between strength and weakness.

In terms of technical conditions, the overall moving averages remain weak. Although the 5-day and 10-day lines are starting to converge near the current price, the 20-day, 30-day, and 60-day lines are still above, indicating that this round is just a repair from a low position, not a complete trend reversal. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered to around 50, reflecting a neutral-to-stabilizing state—no longer extremely weak, but also not clearly strong. Regarding the Bollinger Bands, the stock price is still closer to the lower half of the band. Although it has rebounded from near the lower rail at 9.887 yuan, it has yet to regain the midline at 12.56 yuan. Therefore, at this stage, this can only be regarded as a weak rebound rather than a clear resumption of an upward trend.

If the stock price wants to rise further, the triggering condition is very clear: it first needs to effectively break through 11.86 yuan, then stabilize above 12 yuan, and ideally break through and hold above 12.56 yuan. Only then will there be potential for the short-term rebound to evolve into a stronger upward trend. If this cannot be achieved, especially if the price rises near 12 yuan and then falls back under pressure, it would indicate that selling pressure above remains significant. The downside risk is equally clear. If the stock price falls back below 11.35 yuan and then loses 11.07 yuan, it would suggest that this round of rebound lacks strength. If it subsequently drops below 10.30 yuan, the entire short-term structure will weaken again, and the risk of downward exploration will increase once more.

Regarding warrant capital distribution, the market is primarily focused on call warrants. Out of 47 products in total, 42 are call warrants while only 5 are put warrants, showing a clear bias toward bullish sentiment. The most concentrated trading range for call warrants is between strike prices of 14 to 15 yuan, while for put warrants, it's concentrated between 8 to 9 yuan. The region with the highest open interest is also concentrated in the 14 to 15 yuan strike price range for call warrants, showing one-sided concentration, reflecting that substantial capital is betting the underlying stock will have further room for a rebound. However, this concentration has another implication: although market funds share the same directional view, their positions are relatively aggressive because the current price of 11.60 yuan is still far from the 14 yuan or higher strike price, indicating that many bullish investors are not betting on a minor rebound but rather expecting a more significant extension in stock price.

To address investor questions about whether to buy now, the answer isn't completely no, but it shouldn’t be viewed as a low-risk entry point either. For short-term deployment, a more reasonable approach would be to wait for the stock price to first confirm a breakout above 11.86 yuan, then see if it can stabilize above 12 yuan, making the entry logic more complete. Entering before a breakout would simply be gambling on a continued rebound, offering only moderate odds. As for some investors eyeing a target of 13 yuan, this isn’t entirely unrealistic since 13 yuan is roughly between the 30-day and 60-day moving averages, which could be reached if the rebound continues. However, the prerequisite is that the stock price must progressively break through 11.86 yuan, 12 yuan, and 12.56 yuan; otherwise, 13 yuan remains a target, not a high-probability short-term outcome. Holding call warrants with a strike price of 14.25 yuan is a more aggressive play because even if the stock rises to 13 yuan, it’s still far from 14.25 yuan, meaning the warrant might not be the most directly profitable option in a short-term rebound scenario. In summary, the stock has some rebound potential in the short term, but it’s still in the early stages of the rebound, not yet at a high-confidence chase-up phase. Targeting 13 yuan isn’t completely unreasonable, but requires progressive confirmation of key levels. At present, the short-term reward-to-risk ratio is moderate, not particularly attractive, and it’s better to wait for confirmation before following up, rather than aggressively chasing before resistance. $BIALUCO@EC2609B.C (21903.HK)$$HUALUCO@EC2611A.C (13746.HK)$

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data and should not solely rely on this article to make trading decisions. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.

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