Major institutions hold sharply divergent views as Meituan's stock experiences a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, awaiting a directional decision.

Last quarter turned from profit to loss, recording an adjusted loss of 15.1 billion RMB, with a full-year adjusted loss of 18.65 billion RMB. Meituan founder Wang Xing expects the average loss per food delivery order in Q1 this year to start narrowing. After the earnings release, Meituan's stock price has been volatile, fluctuating between HKD 84.7 and HKD 88.05.

Institutional views on Meituan are highly divided. Daiwa lowered its target price from 140 yuan to 120 yuan while maintaining a 'Buy' rating; CLSA reduced its target price from 135 yuan to 120 yuan while keeping an 'Outperform' rating; Citi raised its target price from 94 yuan to 110 yuan and upgraded its rating from 'Neutral' to 'Buy', being the only institution to raise its rating. On the cautious side, JPMorgan cut its target price from 95 yuan to 85 yuan while maintaining a 'Neutral' rating; Barclays slightly increased its target price from 77.88 yuan to 78.26 yuan but kept a 'Low-Priority' rating.

The technical trend also reflects a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The current stock price has failed to stabilize above the 60-day moving average at 89.88 yuan, indicating continued pressure on the medium-term trend. However, it remains above the 10-day moving average at 80.67 yuan and the 30-day moving average at 80.55 yuan, suggesting some support after a sharp short-term decline. Indicator signals are more contradictory: MACD, Momentum Oscillator, and Rate of Change indicators all signal a buy, while the Psychological Line and Bull-Bear Power indicators also point to buyers, showing weakening downward momentum. However, the Stochastic Oscillator and CCI indicators both signal a sell, and ADX and Williams %R indicators provide no clear directional guidance. Overall, technical signals lean towards 'Sell' with an intensity rating of 9.

In terms of key price levels, the first major resistance is at 92.8 yuan, which serves as a short-term dividing line between strength and weakness. A decisive break above could lead to testing the second resistance level at 97.5 yuan. On the downside, initial support lies at 81.1 yuan, and if broken, may lead to testing stronger support around 75.9 yuan. Bollinger Bands are expanding, combined with the current 5-day volatility of 18.1%, suggesting that subsequent stock price volatility may remain high.

Overall, Meituan is currently in a phase where fundamental divergence and technical contradictions resonate, lacking a clear one-sided trend in the short term. Operationally, a breakout above 92.8 yuan on strong volume can be viewed as a short-term bullish signal, while a breakdown below 81.1 yuan support would increase adjustment pressure. Investors are advised to maintain tactical observation or adopt range-trading strategies, strictly adhering to key price level-based profit-taking and stop-loss discipline.

Before the release of Meituan's earnings, the outstanding volume of call warrants remained relatively stable, at 2807.22 million units on March 24, slightly dropping to 2765.77 million units on March 25, and rebounding to 2776.57 million units on the day of the earnings announcement (March 26). The overall fluctuation was less than 2%, indicating that long positions did not undergo significant adjustments. In contrast, the outstanding volume of put warrants showed noticeable changes: only 135.01 million units on March 24, surging to 225.34 million units on March 25 (the trading day before the earnings), with a single-day increase of 66.9%, reflecting an uptick in market risk aversion as investors pre-emptively positioned themselves for downside hedging; it slightly retreated to 215.37 million units on March 26.

Regarding bull and bear certificates, the outstanding volume of bull certificates showed a continuous downward trend, declining from 303.23 million units on March 24 to 298.52 million units on March 25, and further dropping to 275.25 million units on March 26, with a cumulative decrease of approximately 9.2% over three trading days, indicating a steady outflow of leveraged bullish funds. The outstanding volume of bear certificates experienced sharp volatility, at just 39.75 million units on March 24, skyrocketing to 96.97 million units on March 25, with a single-day increase of 143.9%, and retreating to 67.5 million units on March 26, reflecting that some short bets were closed for profit-taking ahead of the earnings announcement. Overall, during the earnings disclosure period, the position growth of bearish derivatives significantly exceeded that of bullish products, with cautious sentiment dominating the market.

Looking back at March 24, 2026, Meituan’s underlying stock rose by 9.75% cumulatively over the next two days, leading to substantial increases across all bullish derivative products, where $UB#MTUANRC2701A.C (60462.HK)$ rose by 84%, $JP#MTUANRC2609G.C (63797.HK)$ rose by 75%, $CTMTUAN@EC2608B.C (26323.HK)$ rose by 68%, $BIMTUAN@EC2609A.C (26182.HK)$ rose by 48%, fully demonstrating the high elasticity characteristics of leveraged products driven by the surge in the underlying stock.

If investors believe that the stock price will stabilize and rebound at the support level, they can consider deploying bull certificates or call warrants. Regarding bull certificates, $UB#MTUANRC2701A.C (60462.HK)$ and $JP#MTUANRC2609G.C (63797.HK)$ have forced recovery prices located at 72.6 and 72.5 yuan, respectively, which are well below the secondary support level of 75.9 yuan, offering a certain margin of safety. Moreover, both have relatively low premiums, making them pure bullish tools with strong leverage effects. For investors who prefer call warrants, $BIMTUAN@EC2609A.C (26182.HK)$ and $HSMTUAN@EC2608C.C (26603.HK)$ have an exercise price of about 90 yuan, close to the current price and primary resistance level. Their implied volatility is relatively low, effectively reducing the cost of time decay, making them suitable for capturing short-term upward breakout moves in the stock price.

If investors believe the rebound is weak and stock prices will face resistance and fall back, they may focus on bear warrants or put warrants. Among bear warrants,$UB#MTUANRP2812D.P (61957.HK)$the stop-loss level is set at HK$93, slightly higher than the key resistance level of HK$92.8. It has the lowest premium and relatively higher actual leverage, making it an efficient tool for bearish positions.$HS#MTUANRP2807C.P (60508.HK)$the stop-loss level is set at HK$95, close to the secondary resistance level, providing more defensive room. Similarly, it features high actual leverage and low premium. Regarding put warrants,$MSMTUAN@EP2607A.P (21424.HK)$ and $UBMTUAN@EP2607A.P (21519.HK)$the strike price is uniformly set at HK$82.83, between the primary and secondary support levels. Its implied volatility is relatively low, making it suitable for hedging downside risks if the share price falls below the key support level of HK$81.1.

Meituan founder Wang Xing says the loss per food delivery order will narrow in Q1 this year. Do you think the worst of the company’s performance is over? Would you choose to take a position now, wait and see, or exit the market? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comment section. For more market analysis, stay tuned to 'Hong Kong Stock Warrants Jenny' for daily updates!

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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