March 26 [HK Stocks Podcast] Part 1 - Hang Seng Index, HSBC, CNOOC
1. Hang Seng Index: Bullish investors observed a surge of 600 million bull contracts in the last hour, with 400 million bear contracts withdrawn, expecting a rebound. They chose to hold overnight bull contracts with a recovery price of 24,000; Bearish investors believe that after crossing the bull-bear boundary for the second time, the market will continue to fall tomorrow, with support at 24,200, and they hold overnight bear contracts.
The current price of the Hang Seng Index is 24,856.43 points, still trading within the recent obvious range of 24,203.54 points to 27,325.98 points in the short term, with an overall range fluctuation of about 12.9%. Based on the current price position, the index is already close to the lower half of the range, indicating that the market has not fully recovered after the previous decline. Short-term support is first seen around 24,200 points, which is quite close to the recent low. If it breaks below this again, it means selling pressure hasn't been fully digested; Resistance levels above are first seen between 25,000 and 25,200 points. If the index can stabilize again, there may be opportunities for further testing near 25,500 points. Currently, the index is still running within a weak range and hasn't escaped the downward pressure pattern.
In terms of technical conditions, the moving average direction is still downward, indicating that the medium- and short-term trend has not reversed, and the rebound is only a technical recovery within a weak trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also weak, showing insufficient market follow-through, and funds remain cautious about chasing upward prices. The Bollinger Bands show signs of narrowing, and the price is close to the lower band, indicating that although the index has fallen near a short-term weak area, it also reflects that no clear strengthening signal has been seen at this stage. It can only be said that there might be a technical rebound in the short term, but it’s insufficient to confirm the beginning of a new upward trend.
If we consider upside conditions, for the Hang Seng Index to have a meaningful rebound, the first trigger condition is that it must hold the support zone near 24,200 to 24,250 points while regaining the level above 25,000 points. Only by holding the recent low and then breaking back above 25,000 points will the market have the conditions to confirm a slowdown in the short-term downtrend, allowing the rebound to extend to near 25,200 or even 25,500 points. If there is only an intraday spike without stabilizing above 25,000 points, the rebound momentum remains limited, more likely being a temporary pullback within weakness.
Downside risks are quite clear, with the trigger condition being another drop below the 24,200-point support zone. Particularly if it fails to quickly recover after breaking down, it would indicate that the market is further confirming the continuation of weakness. At that point, the position near the lower band might not provide support and could instead evolve into a signal for further downward exploration, significantly increasing short-term risks. In other words, 24,200 points is currently the most important short-term dividing line between bulls and bears. Holding above this level provides a basis for a rebound, while breaking below indicates that the bears have regained control.
In terms of capital distribution, the trading of bull and bear certificates mainly concentrates in the range of 24,600 to 24,799 points for bull certificates and 25,400 to 25,799 points for bear certificates. This indicates that short-term funds are primarily deployed around levels close to the current position, reflecting that market focus remains on short-term fluctuations rather than one-sided bets. Regarding open interest, the most concentrated range for bull certificates is between 24,000 and 24,199 points, while for bear certificates it is between 25,400 and 25,799 points. This represents a larger accumulation of bull certificates near the 24,000-point level and a significant buildup of bear certificates between 25,400 and 25,799 points. This distribution implies that the market has not formed a highly unified directional bias, as there are noticeable concentrations of positions on both sides, indicative of a typical range-bound trading pattern rather than extreme consensus on either bullish or bearish outlooks.
If addressing investors' questions, the bullish side noticed an inflow of 600 million into bull certificates and an outflow of 400 million from bear certificates in the last hour. From a fund flow perspective, this can indeed be interpreted as short-term capital attempting to bet on a rebound, which is not entirely without merit, especially as the index approaches recent lows and technically satisfies conditions for a rebound. However, relying solely on end-of-day fund flows is insufficient to confirm direction, as the overall technical structure remains weak. Additionally, the distance between the current level and the 24,000-point call price for bull certificates is not particularly wide; once 24,200 points are breached, overnight risks would significantly increase. Therefore, such rebound speculation only qualifies as high-risk short-term trading—reasonable but not excessively optimistic.
As for bearish investors who believe the index has broken through the bull-bear dividing line for the second time and will fall further tomorrow, with support seen at 24,200 points, this view aligns more closely with the current overall weak structure. With downward-moving averages, a weak RSI, and prices near the lower Bollinger Band, no reversal signals have emerged yet. However, the index is nearing recent low areas, and if buying emerges again near 24,200 points, chasing bearish bets may not offer high reward potential since downside room might be limited, whereas rebound risk increases.
In summary, both perspectives have their basis, but considering short-term reward potential alone, the current situation does not provide a comfortable one-sided position. The bullish side is betting on a technical rebound near support levels, which is logically sound but contingent upon 24,200 points holding firm. The bearish side follows the prevailing trend, aligning better with the current technical structure, yet holding bear certificates overnight near support offers unattractive reward potential. The direct judgment is that the market still lacks a unified direction, characterized by weak range-bound fluctuations. A more rewarding strategy would involve waiting for clear breaks of key levels like 24,200 or 25,000 points before determining the next move. $BI-HSI @EP2606B.P (24183.HK)$$JP-HSI @EP2605A.P (22976.HK)$$UB#HSI RP28125.P (60799.HK)$$BI#HSI RP2804L.P (61183.HK)$
2. HSBC Holdings (00005.HK): Investors believe that despite the broad market decline, HSBC’s drop has been relatively mild, and its performance remains relatively strong. Is there support at HKD 120? Some investors are deploying call warrants.
HSBC Holdings is currently trading at HKD 124.8, remaining within a consolidation range after a notable recent pullback. The stock has retreated from a recent high of HKD 140.8 to a low of HKD 118.5, representing an approximate 18.8% fluctuation. At the current price, the share price is in the lower-middle part of this range, indicating that although the decline has been milder compared to the broader market, the overall trend remains weak. Immediate support lies around HKD 123 to 122, the nearest support zone below the current price, followed by HKD 120—a psychologically significant level and a defensive line after recent volatility. A breach here could lead to a retest of the recent low at HKD 118.5. Resistance is first seen at HKD 126 to 128, near overlapping short- to medium-term moving averages, with the next resistance at around HKD 130. Failure to break above this would constrain any rebound.
Technically, the moving averages remain downward-sloping, signaling that the intermediate-term trend hasn’t officially reversed. The current phase should be viewed as consolidation after a decline rather than a confirmed resumption of an uptrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around neutral-to-weak levels, approximately near 50, showing that selling pressure has eased somewhat but buying power isn't particularly strong either. The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, with the price closer to the lower half of the bands, suggesting reduced volatility as the market awaits the next directional cue. The key takeaway from this pattern isn’t just that smaller declines equate to strength; what matters is whether a genuine upward breakout occurs.
To confirm an upward bias, the first trigger would be for the stock price to hold firmly above the HKD 123 to 122 support zone while reclaiming and stabilizing above HKD 126. A further breakthrough above HKD 128 would indicate that the short-term rebound has momentum, creating conditions to challenge resistance near HKD 130. In other words, the current perception of 'relatively strong performance' simply means slower declines and greater resilience against drops, but it doesn’t automatically imply a trend reversal until the resistance zone between HKD 126 and 128 is decisively reclaimed.
On the downside risk, the triggering condition is also clear: if the stock price falls below HKD 122 and fails to recover quickly, especially if it breaches HKD 120 again, this would indicate that the previously perceived psychological support level failed to hold. The market would then shift focus to testing the recent low of HKD 118.5. At that point, the short-term weakness would become more pronounced, breaking the current sideways consolidation state and increasing downward pressure.
In terms of warrant capital distribution, call warrant trading is concentrated in the HKD 145 to 150 strike price range, while put warrant trading focuses in the HKD 110 to 115 strike price range. This reflects deployment on both sides, with funds primarily oscillating between higher-strike call warrants and lower-strike put warrants, showing divergence over future direction. Open interest in call warrants is heaviest in the HKD 145 to 150 strike range, while for put warrants, it's concentrated in the HKD 100 to 105 strike range. This indicates that there are more bullish positions accumulated above the current price, but also some bearish positions below, meaning the market hasn’t formed a strongly unified directional bet. Instead, it seems to be awaiting the next breakout signal around the current price.
In direct response to investors' questions, it is believed that although the broader market has fallen, HSBC's decline has been relatively smaller and its trend comparatively stronger. This observation holds some truth as the stock price hasn’t plummeted like some other shares, showing a degree of resilience. However, if we further ask whether there is support at HKD 120, the answer is that HKD 120 can indeed be considered an important support level, but this support isn't unconditionally valid—it depends on whether significant buying emerges when the price approaches that level, and whether it can subsequently hold above HKD 122. Just approaching HKD 120 doesn't guarantee it will hold. As for investors deploying Call warrants, this thinking can be understood from the perspective of 'betting on a technical rebound,' but currently, the moving averages are still sloping downward and resistance hasn't been broken. Therefore, such deployments are speculative bets on a rebound rather than following confirmed trends. Regarding short-term value betting, if the stock price cannot stabilize above HKD 126, directly chasing Calls now offers only average value due to nearby overhead resistance and the risk of losing the HKD 120 support. Conversely, if the price breaks through HKD 126 to HKD 128, then assessing the rebound afterward would provide clearer value betting opportunities. $BI-HSBC@EC2605A.C (23691.HK)$$UB#HSBC RC2809G.C (60000.HK)$$JP#HSBC RC2809D.C (59767.HK)$
3、CNOOC (00883.HK): Investors ask if there is a chance for a new high? In the warrant market, investors are holding call warrants with a strike price of HKD 35.32.
China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) is currently trading at HKD 29.22, and the share price remains in a consolidation range after a recent notable rise. From a recent low of HKD 24.12 to a high of HKD 30.98, the overall fluctuation is about 28.4%, and the current price is towards the upper-middle part of the range, reflecting that the overall trend is still strong, though short-term it has entered a tug-of-war phase near previous highs. Immediate support is seen at HKD 28.80 to HKD 28.50, close to the recent consolidation bottom and near short-term moving averages. Further below, support lies between HKD 27.90 and HKD 27.20; falling into this zone would indicate a slowdown in short-term upward momentum. Resistance is first seen at HKD 29.80 to HKD 30.00, which is near the prior high-pressure area, with the next key resistance at the recent high of HKD 30.98, marking the critical level for breaking new highs.
On the technical side, the moving averages remain upward, with the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, 30-day, and 60-day lines maintaining a mid-term uptrend structure, indicating the major trend hasn't weakened. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in a neutral yet strong position, reflecting continued buying power without entering an extreme acceleration phase, suggesting that while conditions exist for testing higher levels, short-term additional momentum is needed. Bollinger Bands are showing signs of narrowing, with the price near the upper band, indicating the market is consolidating at high levels with narrowing short-term volatility, awaiting a breakout or pullback to determine direction.
For a genuine upward move and challenge to break new highs, the trigger conditions are clear: the stock must first firmly hold the support zone of HKD 28.80 to HKD 28.50 before breaking through the resistance zone of HKD 29.80 to HKD 30.00. Most importantly, it needs to effectively surpass HKD 30.98. Only when the price breaks and stabilizes above the previous high can it be considered a valid breakout; otherwise, the current stage should still be viewed as high-level consolidation rather than a new upward wave.
The downside risks are also evident, with the trigger being a failure to quickly recover after breaking below HKD 28.50, signaling weakening short-term consolidation. If the price further falls below the HKD 27.90 to HKD 27.20 range, it indicates that the original upward rhythm has been disrupted, shifting the market from high-level consolidation to a more pronounced pullback, reducing the likelihood of retesting the previous high. Thus, although the overall trend remains positive, the current level isn’t low, so caution is advised regarding potential pullbacks if support levels are breached.
Regarding warrant capital distribution, call warrant trading is concentrated in the HKD 35 to HKD 36 strike price range, while put warrant activity focuses around the HKD 22 to HKD 23 strike price zone. This indicates short-term capital still shows bullish deployment, primarily in out-of-the-money call warrants, reflecting market optimism about upside potential but also carrying aggressive elements. On the street inventory side, call warrants are most concentrated around the HKD 28 to HKD 29 strike prices, and put warrants focus on the HKD 18 to HKD 19 range, showing bullish positions aggregating closer to the current price while bearish positions are distributed at lower levels. Overall, the market isn't entirely one-sided, but capital clearly leans toward call warrants, though this bullish deployment isn't extreme, remaining cautiously optimistic.
Directly responding to investors’ question on whether there’s a chance to break new highs, the answer is yes, but it hasn’t reached the stage where it can be considered inevitable. The current trend remains strong, moving averages are upward, and the price stays in the middle-to-high range, providing the conditions to test the previous high of HKD 30.98. However, a real breakout requires not only surpassing but also stabilizing above HKD 29.80 to HKD 30.00, followed by breaking through HKD 30.98, otherwise, the possibility of pullback after high-level fluctuations remains. Regarding holding call warrants with a strike price of HKD 35.32, this is clearly an out-of-the-money position, indicating an aggressive approach to betting on extended gains beyond a breakout. This view isn't unreasonable, but it hinges on the price quickly breaking through the previous high; otherwise, if it merely consolidates near HKD 29 to HKD 30, time decay for these out-of-the-money calls will be more noticeable, reducing short-term value betting. In other words, betting on a short-term breakout is logically sound but requires immediate market cooperation; without clear breakout signals, simply holding and waiting offers only moderate value. $UBCNOOC@EP2609A.P (26838.HK)$$SG#CNOOCRP2705C.P (56371.HK)$$UB#CNOOCRP2704B.P (69154.HK)$$HSCNOOC@EP2609A.P (27191.HK)$
Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data and should not solely rely on this article to make trading decisions. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.
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