Nongfu Spring short-term strategy: Defend at 43.7 yuan, a breakout above 47.6 yuan is required to turn bullish.

As of March 26, 2026, Nongfu Spring (09633) was trading at 45.14 yuan, down 2.76%, with a turnover of 175 million yuan, indicating significantly active market trading. From a technical perspective, after rebounding from the low of 40.70 yuan, the stock price has approached the upper part of the range again, showing a strengthening in the short-term trend. The short-term moving average MA10 is at 43.26 yuan and has stabilized initially, while MA30 and MA60 are located at 45.66 yuan and 47.16 yuan respectively, forming overhead resistance. The overall moving averages remain tilted downward, reflecting that the medium-term structure has not yet fully reversed.

Based on multiple technical indicators, the system has issued a 'buy' signal with a strength of 7. Several oscillation indicators such as the CCI indicator and Rate of Change indicator both show 'severely oversold, possible bottom forming, buy', indicating that short-term rebound momentum remains intact. However, the Williams %R and Stochastic Oscillator indicators both indicate 'overbought conditions', and the CCI indicator also signals 'overbought conditions, sell', showing that the stock’s recent rise has been sharp and it has entered the overbought zone.

According to technical analysis data, short-term support levels are at 43.7 yuan and 42.3 yuan, while resistance levels are at 48.5 yuan and 50.5 yuan. The probability of an upward movement is 54%, and the 5-day volatility is 14.3%, indicating relatively high stock price volatility.

March 25th [HK Stocks Podcast] Part 1 - Hang Seng Index, Meituan, Nongfu Spring,

Integrating the March 25th [HK Stocks Podcast] viewpoint, the show clearly indicated that Nongfu Spring is currently priced at 46.42 yuan. After rebounding from its lows, it has approached the upper part of the range again. Immediate downside support is around 45 yuan to 44.40 yuan, followed by the 42.60 yuan to 40.70 yuan region. Upside resistance is first seen at 47.20 yuan to 47.60 yuan, and further up at 50.20 yuan, the recent high. The show's analysis believes that for further upside, the stock price must first effectively break through the 47.20 yuan to 47.60 yuan resistance zone, then stabilize above it, before the market can target 50.20 yuan. Only a breakout and stabilization above 50.20 yuan will truly open more upside potential, potentially allowing further targets above 50 yuan or even gradually advancing toward 55 yuan. The current price is 46.42 yuan, close to the lower edge of the mentioned 47.20 yuan to 47.60 yuan resistance zone, placing it in a critical verification stage of whether the rebound can continue.

The analysis also pointed out that, regarding the capital structure of CBBCs (Callable Bull/Bear Contracts), the current market only has 9 related call warrants and no put warrants, representing a very one-sided product structure. The region with the most concentrated trading activity lies between the strike prices of HK$56 to HK$59.99, and the region with the most street-level inventory is similarly between HK$56 to HK$59.99, indicating a highly focused concentration of capital interest and a fairly uniform market direction, primarily revolving around deployments in slightly out-of-the-money call warrants. This reflects that investors are generally betting on the continuation of a rebound, but due to the overly consistent direction, if the underlying stock fails to continue its upward momentum, the time decay and profit-taking pressure on such products will occur more rapidly.

Overall, the most reasonable short-term view at this moment is to first observe whether the stock price can break through HK$47.20 to HK$47.60, then further challenge HK$50.20. If it doesn’t break above HK$50.20, one could directly look towards HK$55, which would be seen as a slightly forward-looking step. Investors holding call warrants at HK$55.99 can be understood, but the short-term reward-to-risk ratio is only moderately aggressive, not particularly attractive; the real improvement in the reward-to-risk ratio would require the stock price to effectively break above HK$50.20; otherwise, this position should be viewed as betting on the continuation of a rebound rather than already being in a high-confidence uptrend.

Based on technical analysis, market conditions, and insights from [HK Stocks Podcast], Nongfu Spring is at a critical moment of strong short-term rebound attempting to challenge resistance levels. Investors should use HK$43.7 as a short-term stop-loss level and closely monitor the breakout situation within the resistance zone of HK$47.20 to HK$47.60. If the stock price can stabilize above HK$47.60 with increased trading volume, there is potential to further challenge resistances at HK$48.5 and HK$50.5, with a medium-term target of HK$50.20; if it fails to break through and retreats, support levels at HK$43.7 and HK$42.3 need attention. Below is an analysis of several clearly defined CBBC products, whose exercise prices are closely related to key technical resistance levels:

On the bullish deployment side, there are four call warrants available in the market with similar exercise prices, all within the range of HK$56 to HK$56.38, far above the second resistance level of HK$50.5, representing a significantly out-of-the-money structure, reflecting investor expectations for a continued mid-term rebound.

J.P. Morgan Call Warrant (24484) $JPNFSPR@EC2703A.C (24484.HK)$ Exercise price HK$56.04, effective leverage 4.12 times, premium 33.56%, street-level inventory ratio only 0.03%; its advantage lies in the extremely low street-level inventory, resulting in highly concentrated chips and price movements that better reflect changes in the underlying stock.

CMBI Call Warrant (20170) $CINFSPR@EC2704A.C (20170.HK)$ Exercise price HK$56.33, effective leverage 3.99 times, premium 34.65%, street-level inventory ratio 1.04%; its advantage lies in relatively lower implied volatility (42.75%).

BOC Call Warrant (22987) $BINFSPR@EC2704A.C (22987.HK)$ Exercise price HK$56.38, effective leverage 4.04 times, premium 34.54%, street-level inventory ratio 2.19%; its advantage lies in having the lowest implied volatility (42.64%).

HSBC Call Warrant (24671)$HSNFSPR@EC2704A.C (24671.HK)$Strike price 56.38 yuan, effective leverage 4.24 times, premium 33.76%, street leverage ratio 1.50%. The advantage lies in the highest effective leverage among the four, while the premium remains at a relatively low level. The strike prices of these four products are all much higher than the current stock price, representing a typical mid-term out-of-the-money deployment. According to the Podcast's perspective, this type of deployment is more suitable for betting on a continued rebound, but it should be noted that if the stock price fails to break through the resistance at 47.60 yuan and continue its upward trend, time decay will gradually erode returns.

Overall, Nongfu Spring is at a critical moment of strong short-term rebound challenging resistance. Investors should use 43.7 yuan as the short-term bullish-bearish dividing line. If the stock price can effectively break through the resistance at 47.60 yuan, it may further challenge 48.5 yuan and 50.5 yuan; if it fails to hold steady and falls back, attention should be paid to the support at 43.7 yuan and 42.3 yuan. When choosing CBBC products, investors should balance leverage with the distance to the strike price based on their judgment of the market direction and strength, and pay attention to the viewpoint mentioned in the Podcast that '47.20 yuan to 47.60 yuan is the first resistance.'

Do you think Nongfu Spring (09633) can break through the resistance at 47.60 yuan in the short term?

A. Yes, a strong rebound could challenge 50 yuan

B. No, an overbought pullback will retest the support at 43.7 yuan

Disclaimer: This article does not constitute any investment advice. It is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analyses contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any losses or damages caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis shows whether some technical conditions are met, but should be combined with other materials for comprehensive evaluation of asset performance. Trading decisions should not be based solely on this article. Note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's HK Stock Warrants for more professional insights.

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