Heavy machinery sector diverges: Weichai Power rises against the trend, while China National Heavy Duty Truck and Zoomlion show mixed performance

As of March 25, 2026, Weichai Power (02338) was trading at 28.32 yuan, up 2.69%, with a turnover of 382 million yuan, indicating active market trading. Observing from a technical structure perspective, after rebounding from a low, the stock price is in a recovery position following a mid-to-upper range pullback. The short-term moving average MA10 is at 27.73 yuan, where it has initially stabilized, while MA30 and MA60 are located at 30.07 yuan and 26.62 yuan respectively. The overall moving averages remain downward, reflecting that the medium- to short-term direction has not fully strengthened.

Based on multiple technical indicators, the system's signal is "Sell," with an intensity of 9. Several oscillation indicators such as the CCI indicator and Rate of Change indicator show "Severely oversold, possible bottom formation, buy," indicating that short-term rebound momentum still exists. However, the MACD signal and Bollinger Bands both indicate "Sell," while the RSI is at a neutral level of 49, showing that the stock price has stabilized from a low but lacks clear signals of continued strength. According to technical analysis data, short-term support levels are at 26.3 yuan and 23.5 yuan, while resistance levels are at 31.3 yuan and 33.8 yuan. The probability of an upward movement is 46%, with a 5-day volatility of 14.9%, indicating high stock price volatility.

In terms of market news, as of March 25, Weichai Power has benefited from the recovery in domestic heavy truck industry sentiment and expectations for overseas market expansion. According to mainland media reports, the group continues to achieve technological breakthroughs in hydrogen fuel cells and new energy power systems, providing momentum for medium- to long-term growth. Additionally, the National Development and Reform Commission recently stated that it will increase support for high-end equipment manufacturing, which could benefit leading companies in the heavy truck industry. Today, the Hong Kong-listed heavy machinery sector showed divergence, with China National Heavy Duty Truck (03808) $SINOTRUK (03808.HK)$ trading at 40.16 yuan, up 1.41%; Zoomlion (01157) $ZOOMLION (01157.HK)$ trading at 8.83 yuan, up 1.96%; while Weichai Power rose against the trend, showing relatively strong performance.

Integrating the March 24th [Hong Kong Stock Podcast] viewpoint, the show clearly pointed out that Weichai Power's current price is HKD 27.54, with the short-term focus on whether the rebound can continue. The immediate support below is around HKD 26.05 to 25.80, followed by HKD 25. The immediate resistance above is at HKD 27.78, then HKD 28, and further up lies a stronger resistance zone between HKD 29.2 and 30. The analysis suggested that for further upward movement, the stock price must first stabilize above HKD 27.78 and break through HKD 28 effectively, providing the market with conditions to aim the short-term target above HKD 29 or even gradually toward HKD 30. Currently, the share price stands at HKD 28.2, successfully surpassing both HKD 27.78 and 28 mentioned in the program, verifying the preliminary condition for the continuation of the rebound. The next step is to observe whether it can firmly hold above HKD 28. The program also noted that all 19 products in the CBBC market are call warrants, with no put warrants, reflecting a highly concentrated market direction. The most traded call warrants have strike prices between HKD 28 and 28.99, close to the current price, indicating that mainstream funds are focusing on deploying for a continued rise after breaking through HKD 28.

In terms of CBBC capital distribution, there are 19 products in the market, all of which are call warrants without any put warrants, clearly showing the concentrated market direction. The most traded call warrants have strike prices between HKD 28 and 28.99, just slightly above the current price, indicating that the majority of market funds are focusing on deployment for a short-term breakout above HKD 28. On the other hand, the highest concentration of outstanding positions is in the range of HKD 38 to 38.99, significantly higher, implying that many investors are holding positions waiting for a larger rebound. Overall, this market structure suggests a clear bullish outlook, as there are no put warrants diverting flow, and trading is concentrated around slightly higher levels than the current price, suggesting that the capital isn't merely looking at technical rebounds but also anticipating further upward movement in stock prices.

Reviewing the CBBC market performance, according to the product review on March 20, the two call warrants mentioned on that day recorded significant increases over the following two days (up until March 22), successfully capturing the underlying stock's upward trend. Among them, Citi’s call warrant (22431) rose by 16%, and J.P. Morgan’s call warrant (23441) increased by 14%. During the same period, the underlying stock rose by 2.84%, demonstrating that appropriate derivatives can effectively amplify returns during a clear rebound trend.

Based on technical analysis, market environment, and podcast insights, Weichai Power has initially broken through the key resistance level of HKD 28 and is now in the verification stage for whether the rebound will continue. Investors should use HKD 26.3 as a short-term defensive level and closely monitor whether the stock price can stabilize above HKD 28. If the price can stabilize above HKD 28 and maintain high trading volume, it may further challenge resistances at HKD 31.3 and 33.8; if it fails to hold and retreats, supports at HKD 26.3 and 23.5 need to be watched. Below are analyses of several CBBC products with clear terms, whose exercise prices are closely related to technical support and resistance levels:

For bullish strategies, consider J.P. Morgan's call warrant (23441) $JP-WPC @EC2605A.C (23441.HK)$ and HSBC's call warrant (22304) $HS-WPC @EC2605A.C (22304.HK)$ . Their exercise prices are HKD 28.4 and HKD 28.38 respectively, near the first resistance at HKD 31.3, representing a slightly out-of-the-money structure. The advantage of J.P. Morgan's call warrant (23441) is its lowest implied volatility, with a leverage of 6.8 times; HSBC's call warrant (22304) similarly boasts the lowest implied volatility, with a leverage of 6.2 times. Both exercise prices align with the most concentrated trading area mentioned in the podcast (HKD 28 to 28.99), making them suitable for investors expecting the stock price to stabilize above HKD 28 and continue rising.

Additionally, consider Macquarie’s call warrant (22252) $MB-WPC @EC2606B.C (22252.HK)$ , with an exercise price of HKD 31.338, effective leverage of 5.23 times, premium of 19.92%, street ratio of 1.20%, and last trading day on June 15, 2026. Its advantages include moderate leverage and low street ratio, making it suitable for investors expecting the stock price to break through the first resistance at HKD 31.3. Another option is BOC’s call warrant (23300), with an exercise price of HKD 31.38, effective leverage of 2.93 times, premium of 30.29%, and a very low street ratio of only 0.03%. This indicates highly concentrated chips, allowing the price movement to better reflect changes in the underlying stock, suitable for investors with strong confidence in the rebound.

Overall, Weichai Power is at a critical moment to verify whether the rebound can continue. Investors should treat HKD 26.3 as the short-term bull/bear dividing line. If the stock price can effectively stabilize above HKD 28, it may further challenge resistances at HKD 31.3 and 33.8. If it fails to stabilize and retreats, supports at HKD 26.3 and 23.5 need attention. When choosing derivative products, investors should balance leverage with the distance from exercise prices based on their own judgment of market direction and strength, while noting the podcast’s emphasis on 'HKD 28 being the most important short-term trigger point.'

Interactive Questions

Do you think Weichai Power (02338) can stabilize above the HKD 28 level in the short term and further challenge the HKD 31.3 level?

A. Yes, the recovery in the heavy truck sector and favorable sentiment from investors will support it.

B. No, limited upside due to moving average resistance, a retest of support is likely.

Feel free to share your thoughts in the comment section and follow Jenny's Warrants for more professional analysis on Hong Kong stocks.

Disclaimer: This article does not constitute any investment advice. It is for reference only and should not be considered as investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analysis provided may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only reflects whether certain technical conditions are met; asset performance should be evaluated comprehensively with additional information and decisions should not be based solely on this article. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's Warrants for more professional insights on Hong Kong stocks.

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