Southbound capital buying provides support: Meituan rises against the market trend, with southbound funds net purchasing HKD 6.77 billion

Hong Kong-listed tech stocks showed mixed performance today, Tencent (00700) $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ Traded at HKD 509.5, down slightly by 0.88%; Alibaba (09988) $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ Traded at HKD 123.5, up 4.22%; Xiaomi (01810) $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ Traded at HKD 32.3, down 1.10%; while Meituan rose against the market trend, showing relatively strong performance. It is worth noting that southbound capital has been consistently buying Meituan shares recently, with a net purchase of HKD 6.77 billion yesterday, reflecting mainland investors' belief that the current price is attractive. In the afternoon, Meituan's stock price even surged quickly, indicating a recovery in investor attention.

As of March 25, 2026, Meituan (03690) $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ Traded at HKD 87.35, up 10.57%, with a trading volume of HKD 8.284 billion, and stable market activity. From a technical perspective, after rebounding from its 52-week low of HKD 73.60, the stock is currently in a consolidation phase. The short-term moving average MA10 is at HKD 78.67 and has stabilized, while MA30 and MA60 are located at HKD 80.36 and HKD 89.98 respectively, forming overhead resistance. The overall moving averages are still trending downward, reflecting that the broader trend has not yet fully escaped weakness.

In terms of market news, as of March 25, Meituan continues to expand its business. The company released the 2026 Michelin Guide for restaurants in Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas regions, with a total of 135 restaurants from seven cities listed, marking an 18.4% increase in listings compared to last year. Thirty-nine restaurants in Hong Kong made the list, and Seoul was added as a new city this year. Wei Wei, Vice President of Meituan, stated that Chinese consumers are increasingly valuing travel experiences, with dining accounting for 28% of outbound tourism spending. However, rating agency Standard & Poor's noted in a report that the market share battle between Alibaba and Meituan will be costly, as both companies continue to invest heavily in e-commerce delivery sales promotion, which is expected to impact EBITDA performance.

Based on multiple technical indicators, the system's signal is "neutral" with a strength of 10. Several oscillators such as the Stochastic Oscillator and CCI indicator are also in a "neutral" state, with the RSI at 46, indicating that the stock price has stabilized from its lows but lacks clear signs of strong upward momentum. Nevertheless, the Momentum Oscillation Indicator shows a "buy," and the Rate of Change Indicator suggests "oversold, potential bottoming out, buy," indicating that short-term rebound momentum remains. According to technical analysis data, short-term support levels are at HKD 76.8 and HKD 74.4, while resistance levels are at HKD 83.4 and HKD 85.6. The probability of an upward move is 46%, with a 5-day volatility of 8.5%, indicating relatively moderate stock price fluctuations.

Reviewing the performance of the warrant market, based on product reviews from March 23, the four products mentioned recorded significant gains over the following two days (up to March 25), successfully capturing the underlying stock's rebound. Among them, HSBC Bull (55634) and UBS Group Bull (55895) achieved astonishing increases of 89% and 91%, respectively, being the top performers. Societe Generale Call Warrant (26600) and Bank of China Call Warrant (26182) each gained 28%. During the same period, the underlying stock rose by 4.51%, demonstrating that the appropriate use of derivative tools can effectively amplify returns during clear rebound trends.

Considering technical analysis, market conditions, and capital flows, Meituan is in a short-term rebound observation period. Investors should consider HKD 76.8 as a short-term defensive level and closely monitor the breakout above the HKD 83.4 resistance. If the stock price can stabilize above HKD 83.4 with corresponding trading volume, it may further challenge the HKD 85.6 resistance; if it fails to break through and falls back, then attention should be paid to the supports at HKD 76.8 and HKD 74.4. Below is an analysis of several warrants and bull/bear certificates with clear terms, whose strike prices and stop-loss levels are closely related to technical supports and resistances:

For bullish strategies, consider UBS Call Warrant (26464) and Bank of China Call Warrant (26182). $BIMTUAN@EC2609A.C (26182.HK)$ The exercise prices of the two are 90.05 yuan and 90 yuan respectively, higher than the second resistance level of 85.6 yuan, making them out-of-the-money structures. UBS call warrant (26464). $UBMTUAN@EC2608C.C (26464.HK)$ Its advantage lies in relatively low premium and a leverage of 5.7 times; BOCOM call warrant (26182) stands out for its highest leverage (5 times) with lower premium. Both are suitable for investors expecting the stock price to break through the 85.6 yuan resistance level and move higher. For those looking to position closer to the support level, consider bull certificates with a recovery price around 74.5 yuan, such as J.P. Morgan bull certificate (55451) and UBS bull certificate (55895). The advantage of J.P. Morgan bull certificate (55451) is its highest actual leverage (8.6 times) and lower premium; UBS bull certificate (55895) offers high actual leverage (8.9 times) and low premium, both with recovery prices below the first support level of 76.8 yuan, providing a larger buffer.

For bearish strategies, consider UBS put warrant (23001). $UBMTUAN@EP2612A.P (23001.HK)$ and BOCOM put warrant (15409). $BIMTUAN@EP2612A.P (15409.HK)$ The exercise prices of the two are 77.83 yuan and 77.88 yuan respectively, both slightly above the first support level of 76.8 yuan, making them near-the-money structures. UBS put warrant (23001) has the advantage of the lowest implied volatility and high leverage (3.1 times); BOCOM put warrant (15409) stands out for its highest leverage (2.9 times) and low implied volatility. Both are suitable for investors expecting the stock price to pull back and test the 76.8 yuan or even 74.4 yuan support. For bear certificates, you can look at HSBC bear certificate (63947) and Societe Generale bear certificate (64087), with recovery prices of 85 yuan, slightly below the second resistance level of 85.6 yuan, making them aggressive deployments close to the resistance zone. The advantage of HSBC bear certificate (63947) is its lowest premium and higher actual leverage (12.2 times); Societe Generale bear certificate (64087). $SG#MTUANRP2812V.P (64087.HK)$ stands out for its high actual leverage (12.2 times) and low premium, suitable for investors expecting the stock price to encounter resistance near 85 yuan and retreat.

Overall, Meituan is at a critical juncture for whether the short-term rebound can continue. Investors should use 76.8 yuan as the short-term bullish-bearish dividing line. If the stock price can effectively break through the 83.4 yuan resistance, it may challenge the 85.6 yuan level; if it fails to hold steady and retreats, then attention should be paid to the 76.8 yuan and 74.4 yuan support levels. When choosing derivative products, balance leverage with the distance of the recovery/exercise price based on your judgment of market direction and strength, and pay attention to potential support from continuous southbound capital buying.

Interactive Questions

Do you think Meituan (03690) can break through the 83.4 yuan resistance in the short term?

A. Yes, driven by southbound capital buying and business expansion.

B. No, limited rebound space due to competitive pressure and moving average suppression.

Disclaimer: This article does not constitute any investment advice. It is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Market data, opinions, and analyses contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any losses or damages caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis shows whether some technical conditions are met, but should be combined with other materials for comprehensive evaluation of asset performance. Trading decisions should not be based solely on this article. Note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's HK Stock Warrants for more professional insights.

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