[Publishing orders] The market is ups and downs, did your options make or lose?

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Catching my first quadruple stock, with profits exceeding 200%! How to evolve from a beginner to an investment research expert within a year?

A 'veteran' with 20 years of experience in the primary market, entering the US stock market with a VC mindset, successfully captured $CoreWeave (CRWV.US)$ a four-bagger stock, then went all in $Circle (CRCL.US)$ and profited again,During his options learning phase, he achieved a 70x return on a $5,000 principal. How did he evolve from a secondary market novice to an investment research practitioner within a year?

Today, we have invited a practical-minded fellow investor from the Niuniu Circle @BIG78，to reveal his investment evolution approach: 'Macro screening for sectors + fundamental analysis for targets + options for flexibility.'

I. Entering the Scene: How did he go from being a novice to finding his first four-bagger stock?

Q1: Welcome, BIG78! You often share your options trading reviews, and fellow investors are very curious about you. Could you briefly introduce yourself?

Hello everyone, I am not a formally trained trader, nor a traditional technical analyst.

As one of the first-generation internet practitioners in mainland China, I started engaging with the internet in 1997, experienced entrepreneurship, selling my company, working at big tech firms, and later transitioned into venture capital, always relying on spotting macro trends and quality sectors to change my fate.

So my advantage has never been in K-line charts or order books, but rather in judging macro trends, industry shifts, company narratives, and sector rhythms.

When I first entered the market, I asked myself a question: If I could only focus on the two or three most important main themes for the next few years, what would they be?

My answer quickly emerged: AI and blockchain.

My systematic participation in U.S. stock investment began on April 11, 2025, just as the trade war triggered massive fluctuations. If I were to describe my situation at that time in one sentence, it would be:Full of internal strength, yet unfamiliar with the basic moves, I directly stepped onto the stage of high-stakes competition.

My investment style is not traditional value investing, nor purely trend-following or event-driven. I prefer to define it as: a practical macro-thematic investment research approach.

The core process consists of four steps:

First, analyze the trend:Determine what the irreversible trends are in this once-in-a-century global transformation;

Second, filter sectors:Use macro trends to analyze industry frameworks and identify a major growth theme;

Third, find targets:Evaluate fundamentals and valuations to find the companies most likely to deliver on the theme and are worth holding significant positions in;

Fourth, optimize elasticity:Combine event windows, position management, and options tools to maximize the gains curve.

Q2: You once mentioned that $CRWV was your first four-bagger stock. Can you share how you discovered it?

$CRWV is very significant to me as it was the first 'four-bagger level' core opportunity I captured in the US stock market. The reason I found it was because it perfectly aligned with my primary focus: AI infrastructure.

I believe the first phase of AI is driven by the demand for large model computing power, and the second phase will not be about applications but rather an explosion in underlying infrastructure. To put it simply, the internet era drove PC shipments, where we could invest in $IBM or $HP. Now, it’s the cloud service era, where everyone participates in AI through cloud services. The recent surge in small businesses adopting cloud services, partly due to小龙虾 (small dragon), is proof.

The ones truly able to ride this wave of capital frenzy may not all be the established giants; it could also be $CRWV, a rising star at the intersection of computing power, cloud services, and capital narratives.I see three major advantages in it: strong financing, fast execution, and backing from a key supporter (NVIDIA). After thoroughly analyzing the logic, I began to position myself.

I made a significant investment after it fell below the IPO price. This position might look daunting, but for me, it was an opportunity to 'filter for conviction': as long as the company’s fundamentals remain intact and its sector is strong, being driven down by short-term sentiment to an unreasonable level is precisely when I am most interested.

Later, I held it from over $40 all the way to near $142 before selling. That trade turned out beautifully, but the issue was that it continued to rise afterward.I learned a lesson: being able to spot bargains doesn’t mean you know how to hold on. It wasn’t the market that defeated me, but my inability to maintain the holding capacity.

Q3: Retail investors often 'follow the trend and trade tickers'; how did you develop the habit of fundamental research?

This habit didn’t start with stock trading; it’s more like 'muscle memory' from over two decades of working in the primary market.

I never rely on 'trading tickers' to make decisions.Previously, when I was involved in startups and venture capital, the essence was repeatedly validating three things: Is the industry a major trend? Has the company secured a key position? Is capital willing to assign a high valuation?Bringing this perspective to the secondary market, I naturally view things the same way. When conducting fundamental research, I typically divide it into five layers:

1. Look at the big picture:Can this sector become the main focus for the next few years?

2. Assess the company's position: Is it a leader, a platform, or a high-growth niche winner? Can it establish a moat?

3. Evaluate financials and valuation: Determine whether the current market pricing reflects expectations or long-term outcomes.

4. Consider timing:The point at which the logic materializes is crucial. Many long-term valid ideas may not be rewarded by the market immediately. Timing when they will realize vs. when they are just storytelling is key.

5. Conduct on-site research:For instance, I believed the market was shifting toward AI applications in robotics, so I bought $SERV and flew to the US for CES. When NVIDIA's Huang Renxun praised $SERV, driving its stock price up, I closed my position after 10 days with a 50% gain.

When researching the IPO of 'Mixue Ice City,' aside from not visiting the headquarters in Henan for franchisee training, I gained a deep understanding of its franchising and site selection logic, as well as store operations. I even personally timed外卖 orders and foot traffic at the store.

The greatest value of in-depth research is not to 'make me more confident to buy,' but to 'let me know exactly what I am buying.'Only then, when facing drawdowns and consolidation, can you tell whether the underlying logic has broken down or if the price is just testing your patience.

Second, stock selection: Why go all-in on Circle?

Q4: How is your portfolio currently allocated? I see that you're heavily weighted in Circle—can you share the rationale?

My current portfolio has a very clear core focus, with $CRCL as the main axis. Depending on the phase, I express my positions through common stock, long-term calls, swing trades, leveraged positions, and protective hedges.

- Period of rising policy expectations: More aggressive positioning;

- Bill deadlock period or news vacuum period: Reduce duration of aggressive positions;

- Institutional reevaluation period: Focus more on long-term holdings and long-dated calls.

As for the heavy allocation in $CRCL, the logic is quite simple:It’s not a crypto stock; it's the first ticket to digital dollar infrastructure.

Many people see stablecoins merely as a 'payment tool within the crypto circle,' but I see three layers of deeper meaning:

First, it is essentially a digital dollar, not a cryptocurrency.

Second, it serves as the foundational infrastructure for future cross-border payments, RWA settlements, and on-chain USD transactions.

Third, the future of AI agent payments, and even autonomous AI-driven finance, lies in the potential of stablecoins.

$CRCL's greatest value lies in its opportunity to evolve from being a stablecoin issuer into expanding further into settlement layers, network layers, and financial infrastructure layers.

Investing in it at this stage is like investing in NVIDIA (NVDA) during its early days. In the future, opportunities will emerge similar to those seen with OPENAI, Tesla (TSLA), Google (GOOG), Oracle (ORCL), and Palantir (PLTR). Portfolio allocations may vary across stages, but at this moment, infrastructure investments must come first — if this path fails, none of the subsequent ecosystem narratives can succeed.

Based on this belief, my trading discipline follows three principles:

Don’t treat it as a short-term speculative play: If you only view $CRCL as a regulatory or interest-rate stock and attempt to trade around volatility, you might miss out on significant gains.

Acknowledge the winding path ahead: Accept that the endgame could be massive, but the journey will be full of twists and turns, requiring a phased approach.

High-conviction position management:My belief in $CRCL is strong, but what truly enhances my strategy is pairing that belief with layered position sizing, stop-loss triggers, financing discipline, and swing trading patterns.

Through this disciplined approach, I managed to build a full position overnight before the rally began; my average cost for $CRCL is now just over $70.

Q5: Besides fundamentals, what are your core criteria for determining entry and exit points?

I rarely bet on a single technical line. Instead, I focus on a synthesis of five dimensions:

Policy and Event Windows:Such as legislation, earnings reports, regulatory statements, primary accounts, capital rules—during the untamed growth phase, these factors often outweigh pure technical analysis for stocks like $CRCL.

Core Growth Expectations:The company's business and revenue must maintain expected high growth rates, with additional growth drivers anticipated—this is fundamental.

Valuation level:It’s not simply about whether it's cheap or expensive, but rather about understanding the pricing rationale that determines the valuation multiples. Also, observe which phase the market is trading in (recovery, revaluation, or endgame).

Capital Behavior and Key Price Levels:The strength of institutional support at key price levels (previous highs, gaps). Often, the logic remains unchanged, but the rhythm of the order book has already shifted.

Sentiment structure:For example, option IV, sector correlations, Bitcoin strength or weakness, whether the market is chasing high-elasticity assets. Buy/sell points are not a 'magic level,' but rather an overlapping range of fundamentals, events, sentiment, and capital behavior.

Q6: How do you position yourself in advance and deal with expectation divergence when facing the implementation of regulations, earnings fluctuations, etc.?

I increasingly distrust 'single-point predictions' and instead believe more in 'scenario management.'

I break down events into multiple scenarios (e.g., better-than-expected positive news, delayed information, extremely adverse conditions), assigning pre-planned actions to each scenario. Rather than waiting for the market to react emotionally after it happens.

If the outcome diverges significantly from expectations, the most critical principle is: first manage position risk, then address the correctness of your view. Maintain your stop-loss settings; prioritize survival before debating.

Many people, upon divergence, will first think about whether their view is still correct. I now lean toward asking first: What should I do with my margin financing? What about my short calls? Should my speculative positions and long-term holdings be handled separately? Should I add protective puts?

For instance, with $CRCL, I later clarified the models:

Pre-regulation offensive mode;

Price triggers defensive mode;

The bill is unfavorable for the defensive mode;

The bill promotes acceleration mode.

III. Options trading: Let options serve your positions

Q7: Options strategies are very diverse. Which options strategies do you most commonly use to complement the underlying stock?

I don’t like complex option structures and mainly use single-leg strategies. The ones I use most frequently now are:

Buying calls.This is my core offensive tool, suitable for situations where I have high conviction, strong catalysts, but don’t want to increase my position in the underlying stock directly.

Buying puts.Mainly do two things: one is to protect existing profits; the other is to express a bearish view with limited risk when I clearly judge that a sector or a stock is in a bubble.

Sell deep out-of-the-money covered calls while holding the underlying stock.I only do this if I accept 'being exercised as part of reducing my position,' not for small gains.

A small number of short-term calls during specific event windows.In the early stages of learning options, I made good profits based on correct directional judgments. But now I am much more restrained because I've been burned many times by short-duration options. I don't sell naked puts or structures with unlimited losses because I have clearly found that they are not suitable for me.

For example, the most typical case is $CRCL.

Early stage: Use the underlying stock as the core position and different durations of calls as accelerators. When there's rapid upward movement, roll the position to higher strike prices.

Later stage: I take profit on deep in-the-money calls and stop rolling them over, peeling off the leverage-reduced options.

When entering a phase of unclear policies, consider using puts for protection or simply reduce options positions.

This means that options, for me, are not a 'standalone money-making game'; they serve the management of the underlying stock and overall portfolio.

Q8: Many fellow investors lose money in options due to Theta decay. What are your criteria?

I only gradually understood this after suffering a major loss.

Now, my standards boil down to three core principles.

First, the expiration date must align with the catalyst window.If the catalyst is two months away, don’t buy an option expiring in two weeks. Many people lose not because they are wrong on direction, but on timing. For $Circle (CRCL.US)$ , my short-term bullish bets focus on positive developments occurring within 1 to 3 months, typically with a 150-180 day timeframe, while long-term bullish bets focus on developments within 3 to 6 months, generally using a 300-360 day CALL.

Second, don't choose strike prices that are too far out-of-the-money just for higher odds.For short-term trades, I prefer slightly in-the-money or near-the-money options. For long-term positions, I typically buy two sets of out-of-the-money options at 15% and 30%. This way, theta decay and pure emotional volatility hurt me less, and if the stock price moves significantly, it's easier for me to hold on.

Third, consider IV (Implied Volatility).Even when bullish, if IV is unreasonably high, I proceed with more caution. If it’s a low-volatility stock but I anticipate it will enter a high-volatility phase, those options tend to offer better value.

In short: First, look at the catalyst timing; then, review position allocation; next, analyze IV; finally, assess the odds, though you must always account for Delta-adjusted effective leverage.

If you only look at the odds first, in the end, you'll most likely lose on time value.

Q9: Have you ever had moments of mental breakdown during violent option washouts or prolonged sideways trading?

Of course, and more than once. The most notable instance was in July 2025. $Circle (CRCL.US)$ The 'heavenly road' style bet failed. I wanted to capture three phases within a week: up, down, then up again. The first phase went as expected, but I conceded defeat early in the second phase and missed the reversal in the third phase. That experience made it very clear to me that I’m not suited for multi-phase short-term trading within a week.

Another time, I heavily bet on options tied to Q3 earnings without preparing a proper risk contingency plan, which led to an earnings collapse. $Circle (CRCL.US)$ and $CoreWeave (CRWV.US)$ The options crashed dramatically; after hesitating for a few days, I decided to cut my losses decisively, only recovering 15% of my initial investment.

There was also the case during $Circle (CRCL.US)$ the third phase of trading where I prematurely reduced my position due to being overly immersed in weekend narratives about potential US military action against Iran, ultimately missing out on market gains when the anticipated event didn’t materialize.

The way I endured wasn’t by 'gritting my teeth,' but by doing two things:

First, admit what you’re not good at.

For example, I’m not skilled at intraday short-term trading, unlimited loss strategies, or making complex position adjustments during high market sentiment. I’m better suited for buyer structures with limited losses and unlimited profit potential. Options should serve as a complement to stocks and overall portfolio positioning, not the other way around.

Second, write down the rules.

Do not make impulsive moves in investment positions; manage speculative positions independently; decide in advance how to handle situations where prices fall below a certain level; determine when to take profit and roll options; under what conditions to add puts. Once these are written out, one does not need to rely on willpower every time to stay disciplined.

The real way to let profits run is not through sheer patience or talent, but by having a framework that keeps you from making reckless moves.

Fourth, mindset and risk control

Q10: Among your many successful trades, is there any particular trade you're particularly proud of? Why?

If we're just talking about explosive returns, of course, the +1400% call on $CRCL earlier was quite impressive.

But if I were to pick one that I'm personally more satisfied with, I'd choose my handling of $FIGR and $MATX around Q3 earnings.

It wasn’t the most profitable trade, and it may even seem mediocre, but it was one of the few trades where my 'analysis, structure, and execution' were relatively complete. I had a prediction for it, but I didn’t gamble on Q3 earnings like I sometimes do; I maintained a bullish exposure while adding neutral hedging, and finally took profits on both the stock and options in the profit zone after the earnings release.

It made me realize something: truly mature trading doesn’t have to be the most thrilling, but it’s often the most well-rounded.

Q11: What are some features you like about Futu’s trading platform?

1The option chain display and options calculator.For my trading approach of combining 'stock and options,' the efficiency of the options chain is very important. Futu's options calculator is particularly excellent and is the tool I use most frequently. I check and calculate with it at any time, often finding good prices when building positions. The value brought by Futu's options calculator far exceeds the commission I pay.

Functional Path: Taking Circle as an Example

The position display is intuitive enough.I often separate positions with different characteristics for review, which is crucial for me, especially the 'cost after averaging down' feature—it’s been extremely helpful for overall review.

3. The NiuNiu Community.I regularly write reviews, and the biggest value of the community for me isn’t interaction but forcing me to clarify my logic. Many times, being able to articulate things clearly is itself a form of risk management. Moreover, fellow investors are very friendly. On a few occasions when my review posts received somewhat sarcastic replies, I responded and explained, and the other party ended up voluntarily deleting their posts, which moved me.

4. NiuNiu’s customer service。At the time, I hadn’t learned how to use options yet. After getting a basic understanding of the principles, I wanted to start practical operations, so I called customer service, explained the direction and content I wanted to execute, and completed the operation and order placement under the guidance of customer service over the phone—I’m very grateful.

5. Cash Treasure. The service that automatically transfers idle funds into bond interest generation is fantastic,The interest is pretty good. Later, I got too lazy to use my cash to buy US bond funds, so I just left it in the account; my broker helps me manage it.

Q12: Lastly, what are your top three pieces of advice for fellow investors who want to learn this 'stock + options' model from you?

First, you must manage your position sizing properly, then focus on trend analysis, and only afterward choose individual stocks. This sequence cannot be wrong!

Second, get proficient with common stocks before touching options. If you haven't yet established a solid logic for holding common stocks, proper position management, and drawdown tolerance, options will only amplify your confusion.

Third, options are not a tool for showing off skills but a tool for managing positions. Buying calls is for offense, buying puts is for protection, and executing covered calls is for reducing positions during market swings. First, master these three uses before considering more complex structures.

Fourth, figure out what kind of trader you are. Are you suited for high-frequency short-term trades or swing trading? Can you accept limited losses, or do you prefer making small profits? Can you endure sideways markets? Many losses occur not because the market is too difficult but because you're trading in a way that doesn't suit you.

My biggest improvement later on wasn’t learning how many new techniques I acquired, but finally admitting: what money shouldn't be mine to make.

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