[HK Stocks Podcast] Hang Seng Index, CGN Power, Leapmotor, COSCO Shipping Energy, Xiaomi Group, CNOOC - Post-market analysis on March 23

Investors believe that today’s heavy selloff has released bearish pressure, and with the market nearing key support levels, a potential rebound is possible. Bull contracts held overnight aim for a recovery at a stop-loss level of 24,200 points. Some investors think that if buying bull contracts, it's safer to choose a stop-loss level of 21,800 points; bearish investors expect further declines tomorrow below 24,000, favoring holding bear contracts overnight.

The Hang Seng Index currently closed at 24,382 points, clearly breaking below the recent sideways trading range bottom and approaching previous low levels. Immediate visible support lies around 24,200 points, near the previous low of 24,203, with the next psychological support at the round number level of 24,000 points. On the upside, short-term resistance first needs to overcome 24,800 points, followed by the heavy trading zone between 25,200 and 25,500 points. Calculating from the current price to 24,800, the rebound potential is approximately 1.7%. However, if it breaks below 24,200, the downside testing to 24,000 or even lower will be about 1.5% to 2%, keeping the overall short-term volatility in the range of about 3% to 5%, but with an evident weak bias.

The moving average structure has turned into a clear downward arrangement, with all short and medium-term moving averages heading downwards, forming pressure, indicating that the dominant trend remains downward. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the range of about 20 to 30, showing weakness and nearing oversold levels, but no significant divergence signal is seen yet. The Bollinger Bands have clearly expanded, with prices running close to the lower band, reflecting an accelerating downtrend rather than just fluctuations.

For an upward movement to happen, clear triggering conditions must appear: the index needs to first stabilize above the 24,200 support and rebound to reclaim above 24,500, along with the RSI rising from the lows to above 30, to challenge the 24,800 resistance. Otherwise, even if there is a rebound, it would only be a technical pullback with limited sustainability.

In terms of downside risk, once 24,200 is effectively broken and the market closes below it, a new round of selling pressure will be triggered, potentially leading to a rapid test of the 24,000 level or even further declines. Especially under the expansion of the Bollinger Bands, the probability of a continued downtrend is higher than an immediate reversal.

Observing the distribution of bullish and bearish warrant flows, trading is mainly concentrated in the bull warrants range of 24,000 to 24,500 and the bear warrants range of 25,500 to 26,000, indicating deployments on both sides of the market. However, the current price is approaching the dense area of bull warrants, implying risks of forced liquidations. Street inventory is also concentrated in the 24,000 to 24,500 bull warrants range, showing that many retail investors are betting on a rebound in this area, while bear warrants are focused at higher levels with no immediate pressure. Overall fund distribution shows separation between top and bottom, but in the short term, due to the price nearing the dense bull warrants zone, the market is actually tilted towards downside risk, without a consensus for a rebound.

In response to investor sentiment suggesting a possible rebound after heavy selling near key support levels, this judgment is not entirely wrong from a technical perspective, as 24,200 does represent a crucial short-term support level with potential for a technical bounce. However, the main issue lies in the fact that the current trend is clearly downward, compounded by price pressures approaching the cluster of bull contract stop-loss zones. A breach could accelerate the decline. Therefore, betting on a rebound using bull contracts with a stop-loss level at 24,200 overnight is considered high-risk with low reward potential. As for choosing a stop-loss level of 21,800, while it offers a higher safety margin, the leverage and sensitivity would be significantly reduced, possibly failing to meet short-term deployment needs. On the other hand, bearish investors expecting a breakdown below 24,000 and holding bear contracts appear relatively reasonable under the current trend and structure, offering better short-term odds, provided that a breakdown below 24,200 confirms the continuation of the downtrend.

CGN Power (01816.HK): Today it performed strongly against the trend, reaching a 52-week high. Is there a chance to test 4 yuan?

CGN Power is currently trading at 3.49 yuan. The stock has been advancing along an uptrend and hitting a 52-week high, indicating a clearly strong upward pattern in the short term. Initial support is around 3.30 yuan, followed by 3.10 yuan, while there is no clear historical resistance above, with the psychological target set at 4.00 yuan. Based on the current price, the potential upside to 4.00 yuan is approximately 14.6%, while a pullback to 3.30 yuan would represent about a 5.4% drop. The overall trading range is roughly between 3.10 and 4.00 yuan, with volatility exceeding 25%. However, short-term fluctuations are primarily concentrated within a 5% to 10% range.

The moving averages show a clear upward alignment, with both short- and medium-term averages rising in sync and providing support, indicating strong trend continuation. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to the 70 level, suggesting strength but nearing overbought territory, reflecting sustained inflows of capital but also accumulating short-term correction pressure. The Bollinger Bands are expanding, with the stock price running near the upper band, indicating that the uptrend is continuing but also implying that the short-term rise has been relatively sharp.

For further upward movement, clear triggering conditions are necessary: the stock price needs to stabilize effectively above 3.50 yuan and consistently close higher, accompanied by increased trading volume, to push prices towards 3.70 or even 4.00 yuan. If the price merely touches the upper band but fails to hold, there's a higher likelihood of consolidation at high levels.

In terms of downside risk, if the stock price falls below 3.30 yuan and closes beneath it, this will be seen as a short-term weakening signal, potentially triggering profit-taking pressure and testing support at 3.10 yuan. A break below 3.10 yuan would indicate structural damage to the uptrend, shifting the short-term trend from strong to neutral.

Observing the warrant flow distribution, the market is entirely focused on call warrants, with the most active trading concentrated in the strike price range of 3.40 to 3.60 yuan. Street inventory is also concentrated in this region, showing that investors generally expect the stock price to continue its upward trend. Since there is almost no deployment in put warrants, funds are unilaterally concentrated, indicating a clear bullish market sentiment. However, when call warrants become overly concentrated, any pullback in the underlying stock would simultaneously pressure the time value and price of related products.

Regarding the investor view that there may be an opportunity to test HKD 4, from a trend perspective, this target is not unreasonable since the stock price is currently within an upward channel and making new highs, with consistent bullish bias among market participants. However, it should be noted that the price is now close to the upper Bollinger Band and RSI is in overbought territory, reducing the reward-to-risk ratio for short-term entries. If the price can stabilize above HKD 3.50 and maintain momentum, testing HKD 4 becomes more plausible; otherwise, a pullback or profit-taking scenario is more likely in the short term. Thus, this phase represents a strong but late-stage uptrend, where the reward-to-risk ratio is not optimal, requiring conditional triggers before further positioning.

3. Leapmotor (09863.HK): Investors noted that the trading volume is seven times the usual amount; is it still worth holding? Investors are focusing on call warrants with a strike price of 58.88 yuan.

Leapmotor (09863) is currently priced at around 45.02 yuan, with its short-term trend in a consolidation phase following a rebound. The recent low was at 37.64 yuan, while the high reached approximately 50.65 yuan. At this stage, the main trading range falls between 42 to 46 yuan, with short-term volatility at about 8% to 10%. Initial support has formed around 42 yuan, while resistance lies above 46 to 47 yuan. Until a breakout occurs, the stock remains in a range-bound oscillation pattern.

In terms of moving averages, the medium- and long-term averages remain downward, reflecting that the overall trend has not completely reversed. However, short-term moving averages have started to converge and slightly flatten, indicating some return flow of short-term capital. The relative strength index (RSI) is in a relatively strong zone, staying above 60, showing that buying momentum persists but has not entered an extreme overbought condition. The Bollinger Bands have visibly narrowed, with the share price gradually approaching the upper band, signaling that the short-term movement is in a compression phase prior to choosing a direction. Once a breakout occurs, volatility could expand.

On the upside, it is crucial to watch for a breakout above the 46 to 47 yuan resistance zone. If the breakout can be accompanied by sustained increases in trading volume and stabilization above 47 yuan, then the breakout can be confirmed. In that case, there may be further upward testing toward the 48 to 50 yuan range. Conversely, if the breakout fails and the price retreats, breaking below the 42 yuan support will reopen downside risks, potentially retesting 40 yuan or even nearing the previous low.

From the perspective of capital structure, market trading activity is mainly concentrated in call warrants, with exercise prices clustered in the range of 58.8 to 66.7 yuan, indicating out-of-the-money positioning. This reflects that investors are inclined to bet on a continuation of the medium- to short-term rebound. However, open interest is concentrated in the higher 77 to 79 yuan range, suggesting that accumulated positions over the medium to long term remain skewed towards higher levels, posing potential supply pressure. The overall structure leans bullish, but follows an "out-of-the-money chasing" pattern rather than value accumulation at lower levels, indicating aggressive but potentially unstable market sentiment.

Regarding the investor's mention of trading volume increasing to seven times the usual amount and considering whether to continue holding, as well as holding call warrants with a strike price of 58.88 yuan, this view requires cautious consideration. Increased trading volume indeed indicates rising investor attention, but before key resistance levels are broken, higher volumes might simply reflect short-term profit-taking or divergence at higher levels. The current price is still about 30% away from 58.88 yuan, representing a clear out-of-the-money structure. If the share price fails to quickly break through and extend its upward trend, time decay will significantly erode returns.

In terms of short-term attractiveness, this is a phase of being "close to resistance without confirmed breakout," with the risk of holding at elevated levels rising. If the stock price fails to effectively break through 47 yuan and stabilize above it, continuing to hold such out-of-the-money call warrants offers poor value. On the other hand, only after a confirmed breakout and extended upward trend does holding become justifiable. Therefore, while the investor’s optimistic outlook has some basis, it currently lacks technical structural support, making it an aggressive position that requires strict risk control.

4. COSCO Shipping Energy (01138.HK): Investors inquire when the historical high of HKD 26 will be broken. Attention is on call warrants with a strike price of HKD 26.3.

COSCO Shipping Energy (01138.HK) is currently trading around HKD 19.70, remaining in a consolidation phase at elevated levels within a medium-term uptrend. Recently, the price surged from a low of HKD 9.38 to a high of HKD 22.24 before pulling back, consolidating repeatedly within the range of HKD 17 to HKD 20. The current short-term trading range primarily falls between HKD 18 and HKD 20.5, with volatility around 12% to 14%. Support is evident around HKD 18, while resistance lies between HKD 20.5 and HKD 21. Until broken, the structure remains sideways but slightly bullish.

In terms of moving averages, the overall upward arrangement persists, reflecting that the medium-term uptrend remains intact. Short-term moving averages are gradually converging toward the price, showing that the uptrend is entering a consolidation phase. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in a moderately strong region, hovering around 60, indicating no significant capital outflow but some slowing of momentum. The Bollinger Bands have notably narrowed, with the price running between the middle and upper bands, representing compressed volatility, as the market awaits the next directional move.

On the upside, it is essential to monitor the breakout situation at the resistance zone of 20.5 to 21 yuan. A confirmation of a new round of upward momentum will only occur if trading volume expands and the price stabilizes above 21 yuan. At that point, there may be an opportunity to re-challenge 22 yuan or even higher levels. If the price fails to break through and falls back again, once the support at 18 yuan is broken, the stock will weaken and could test 17 yuan or even lower levels.

Observing the capital structure, the market is almost entirely concentrated in call warrants, with noticeable trading focused on the strike price range of about 26.8 to 26.9 yuan, which represents a clearly out-of-the-money deployment. This reflects that investors generally expect medium-term upside potential. However, the open interest is concentrated around the higher strike price of approximately 29.9 yuan, indicating that the market's accumulated positions are leaning towards a more aggressive level. The overall structure is one-sided bullish, but this also means that if the upward trend cannot continue, latent selling pressure will gradually emerge.

Regarding investor concerns about when the historical high of 26 yuan will be broken and holding call warrants with a strike price of 26.3 yuan, this expectation represents a medium-term optimistic view. However, from the current structural perspective, the stock price is still over 30% away from 26 yuan, and in the short term, it remains in a consolidation zone around 20 yuan without signs of accelerated upward movement. It is premature to talk about challenging 26 yuan before breaking through 21 yuan and sustaining the upward trend.

In terms of short-term value betting rate, it is currently in a 'high consolidation, awaiting breakout' phase. If there is no clear breakout signal, holding out-of-the-money call warrants will face time decay risk, making the betting rate less than ideal. Only when the stock price effectively breaks through and enters a trend acceleration phase will such deployments become reasonable. Therefore, while the investor’s directional view is not wrong, the timing is premature. The risk-reward ratio for short-term holding is asymmetrical, necessitating careful management of the position.

5. Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK): Will it break through 30 yuan when earnings are announced this Tuesday? In the warrant market, investors indicate they have entered Put options as a hedge, focusing on put warrants with a strike price of 22.88 yuan.

Xiaomi Group-W is currently trading at 32.06 yuan, with the short-term trading range clearly between 31.20 yuan and 36.60 yuan, fluctuating by about 17.3%. The nearest support level at this stage is at 31.20 yuan, which is a recent obvious low, and also close to the lower Bollinger Band near 31.16 yuan. If this support is broken, the market will start directly testing the psychological level of 30 yuan. The first resistance above is not a single price point but the moving average dense area between 33.9 yuan and 34.6 yuan because the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 30-day moving averages are all currently hovering around this range. Beyond that lies the recent rebound high of 36.60 yuan.

Technically, the short to medium-term moving averages are still trending downward, with the stock price remaining below several key moving averages, indicating the trend has not yet shaken off weakness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in a weaker region without showing clear strengthening signals. Regarding the Bollinger Bands, the price is hugging the lower band, reflecting continued short-term selling pressure, but also suggesting the stock is nearing the edge of short-term oversold conditions, making it highly susceptible to significant directional moves driven by earnings news.

The conditions for an upside are clear: the price must first stabilize above 31.20 yuan and then further break through the moving average resistance zone of 33.9 yuan to 34.6 yuan to truly transition from a weak rebound to a more sustainable recovery trend. Without achieving this step, any rebound is more likely to be a technical pullback. Only when the price effectively rises and stabilizes above 34 yuan will the market have the conditions to challenge 36.60 yuan, at which point short-term sentiment will significantly improve.

Downside risks are equally clear. If 31.20 yuan is breached and not quickly recovered, the market will immediately focus on the 30-yuan level. Once 30 yuan is broken, it indicates that what was initially just a weak consolidation pattern will deteriorate further. At that point, short-term selling pressure could accelerate, and volatility around earnings could amplify. In other words, 31.20 yuan is the first line of short-term defense, while 30 yuan is an important psychological threshold.

In terms of warrant capital distribution, trading remains dominated by call warrants, with a total of 247 call warrants versus 57 put warrants. The most concentrated trading in call warrants occurs within the strike price range of 37.00 yuan to 37.99 yuan, reflecting that considerable capital is still positioned for a rebound at higher levels. Meanwhile, put warrant trading is most concentrated in the 31.00 yuan to 31.99 yuan range, which is close to the current price, showing increased hedging demand for testing short-term support or even the 30-yuan level. In terms of open interest, call warrants are most concentrated in the 60.00 yuan to 60.99 yuan range, while put warrants are concentrated in the 46.00 yuan to 46.99 yuan range. The overall open interest distribution is heavily skewed toward call warrants, indicating a one-sided concentration. This suggests that the overall market positioning is not uniformly bearish; rather, it resembles a structure originally biased toward expecting a rebound, with some defensive put deployments added ahead of earnings recently. Thus, the market has not formed a completely unified downward direction but instead exhibits a divergent pattern where 'call open interest is dominant, but short-term put trading is heating up.'

As for whether investors are concerned about the price falling below 30 yuan after Tuesday's earnings announcement, this cannot be ruled out because the current price is already close to the lower track, and the support at 31.20 yuan is not strong. If the earnings disappoint the market, 30 yuan could indeed become a direct test target. However, if we consider only short-term positioning, the idea of entering Put options as a hedge is reasonable since the market is indeed increasing its guard against downside risks. But focusing on Put warrants with an exercise price of 22.88 yuan would be considered a more aggressive choice, as this exercise price is too far from the current price. Unless there’s a very sharp and deep drop after the earnings release, short-term sensitivity may not be ideal. In other words, while the hedging direction makes sense, using such distant Put warrants like the 22.88 yuan ones to bet on a fall below 30 yuan after earnings has only average or even low short-term value. The real key isn’t whether the market will slightly weaken but whether there can be a sufficiently rapid decline to make these products effectively reflect.

6. Investors in CNOOC (00883.HK) are asking whether it will return to 26 yuan or test 32 yuan. In the warrant market, some investors have taken bearish positions, with a recovery price of 31 yuan.

CNOOC's current price is 30.50 yuan, with a clear recent trading range between 20.54 yuan and 30.98 yuan, accumulating a total fluctuation of approximately 50.8%. The current price is already near the top of this range. For the short term, the most immediate support level is around 29.80 to 29.50 yuan, which is close to the intraday low of 29.82 yuan and also near the 5-day moving average of 29.51 yuan. Below that, the 10-day moving average is around 29.10 yuan; if that breaks, the adjustment could expand further. On the upside, resistance is first seen at the recent high of 30.98 yuan, followed by the 31 to 31.11 yuan area, which is near both the round-number level and the upper Bollinger Band. The next higher target zone is 32 yuan.

The technical setup is quite clear: the moving averages remain in an upward alignment, with the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 30-day lines clearly ordered from top to bottom, indicating that the trend remains strong. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in a strong region and has reached around 70 or even higher, showing that buying interest persists, though the short term is beginning to enter a more overheated phase. Regarding the Bollinger Bands, the stock price is approaching the upper band, which typically indicates strength, but also suggests that chasing prices now requires better timing, as failure to break through often results in short-term pullbacks near the upper band.

The conditions for upside movement aren’t complex: the key is that the resistance zone between 30.98 yuan and 31.11 yuan must be effectively broken, and the breakout should not just result in a brief spike but must hold steady. Only then does the market have a better chance to test 32 yuan smoothly. If the price repeatedly approaches 31 yuan without breaking through, the uptrend may not reverse immediately, but short-term upward space would be significantly compressed.

Downside risk also has clear triggers: if the stock first breaks below 29.80 yuan, then drops below 29.50 yuan and the 10-day moving average at 29.10 yuan, it indicates that the short-term uptrend is weakening. At that point, it wouldn’t just be consolidation at highs but could signal a deeper technical correction. However, returning directly to 26 yuan isn’t something that would occur with just a slight weakening, as there are multiple supports in between, such as the 20-day moving average at 27.72 yuan and the 30-day moving average at 26.72 yuan. In other words, 26 yuan isn’t the first step down but rather a target that might emerge after a clear breakdown in the short-term structure.

Regarding warrant fund distribution, there are a total of 60 products, of which 44 are call warrants and 16 are put warrants, indicating that call warrants still outnumber puts. The most concentrated trading region for call warrants is in the strike price range of 35.00 to 35.99 yuan, while for put warrants, it’s concentrated in the 22.00 to 22.99 yuan range. This reflects that the market mainstream is still positioned for upside potential at higher levels, though some funds are using deep out-of-the-money put warrants for defensive purposes. On the street-level holdings, call warrants are most concentrated around the 28.00 to 28.99 yuan strike price, while put warrants cluster around the 18.00 to 18.99 yuan strike price. Overall, there isn’t significant one-sided concentration, indicating that the market isn’t completely aligned in one direction and retains some divergence despite a generally bullish bias.

As for whether investors think the price will return to 26 yuan or test 32 yuan, based purely on the current short-term structure, the likelihood of testing 32 yuan first is much higher than directly dropping back to 26 yuan, as the trend remains upward, the moving averages are well-aligned, and the price is still operating near the high end of the range. Of course, resistance around 31 yuan isn’t light, and it may not break through in one attempt, but as long as the support zone between 29.50 yuan and 29.10 yuan holds, the trend should primarily consolidate at highs before attempting another upward move. As for taking a bearish position with a recovery price of 31 yuan, I believe this offers relatively low short-term value because the current price is 30.50 yuan, with the recent high at 30.98 yuan, making the distance to the 31 yuan recovery price too close. A small upward push could trigger recovery, leaving little room for error. Betting on a pullback near 31 yuan isn’t entirely wrong directionally, but using bearish warrants with a recovery price of 31 yuan on this strong stock carries significantly higher risk than reward, making such a strategy less rational.

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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