Li Ning (02331) Short-Term Analysis: Post-Earnings Stock Price Breaks Strongly, 21 Yuan Resistance Turns into Support as the Key

As of March 20, 2026, Li Ning (02331)'s stock price closed at 21.54 yuan, surging 9.87% to 21.7 yuan driven by earnings news, with a turnover of 559 million yuan, reflecting significantly increased short-term volatility. On March 19 after market close, the company announced its fiscal year 2025 earnings, reporting revenue of 29.598 billion RMB, up 3.2% YoY, and net profit of 2.936 billion RMB, down 2.6% YoY, but overall in line with market expectations. The final dividend was raised nearly 13% to 23.36 RMB cents, driving the stock to open nearly 10% higher on March 20 at 22.38 yuan, with further gains expanding thereafter.

Technical Analysis and Support/Resistance Levels

From a technical analysis perspective, Li Ning’s stock showed a breakout movement post-earnings announcement. According to technical data from March 19, the stock closed at 19.75 yuan, with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 42. Technical indicator summary signals were 'Buy,' with an intensity of 8, while the bull-bear power indicator displayed a positive signal suggesting 'oversold, possible bottom forming, buy.' The stock price broke through multiple moving averages after the earnings release, currently trading above the 10-day line (19.96 yuan) and 30-day line (21.04 yuan), with the 60-day line (20.42 yuan) also recovered, showing clear short-term strength.

March 17 [Hong Kong Stock Podcast] Hang Seng Index, Geely Auto, JD.com Logistics, Li Ning, Pop Mart, Tencent

Reviewing the analysis from the March 17 episode of [Hong Kong Stocks Podcast], it was noted that Li Ning's stock price fell from a high of 23.42 yuan and found support near 18.8 yuan before experiencing a technical rebound over recent trading sessions, regaining stability above the 20-yuan level. The show highlighted that the stock was constrained by the 20-day line at 21.00 yuan and the 30-day line at 21.041 yuan, indicating short-term stabilization but without yet strengthening the medium-term trend. Above resistance focused around the 21.00 to 21.20 yuan region, where Bollinger Bands midline and several moving averages converge, creating significant technical pressure. Judging from today's stock performance, Li Ning successfully broke through the key resistance at 21 yuan, confirming the show's view that 'if it can effectively break and stabilize, there is potential for further upward movement towards the previous high of 23.42 yuan.'

On the key support side, based on today’s stock price breaking back above 21 yuan, investors need to reassess the support-resistance range. Initial support moves up to 21.0 yuan, which has shifted from resistance to support, aligning closely with the 10-day and 20-day moving averages, forming an important short-term support zone. The second support level is at 19.8 yuan, near the 60-day moving average, serving as a critical watershed for medium-term trends. Regarding resistance, the first resistance level is at 22.5 yuan, close to the previous high of 22.38 yuan; if broken successfully, the next target will be 23.4 yuan, corresponding to the 2025 high area.

Warrant Product Review

Reviewing the two call warrant products mentioned on March 16, their performance over the following two days was closely linked to the underlying stock's movement. In the two days after mentioning Li Ning on March 16 (up to March 18), the stock cumulatively rose 3.48%. During this period, the two call warrant products recorded significant increases: UBS Group call warrants (22224)$UBLININ@EC2605B.C (22224.HK)$ rose 24% during the period, BOC Call Warrant (22219) $BILININ@EC2605B.C (22219.HK)$ rose even more by 29%, fully reflecting the leverage effect of related call warrants when the underlying stock rebounds. Product performance matches the volatility of the underlying stock, consistent with the characteristics of derivatives tracking the underlying asset's movement.

Recommendations and Analysis of Warrants and Bull-Bear Certificates

Based on the current share price consolidating at HK$21.82, it has successfully broken through the key resistance level of HK$21 and is advancing towards the first resistance at HK$22.5. Investors can consider deploying the following four call warrant products according to their investment objectives and holding periods, while paying attention to how well the product terms match key price levels of the underlying stock.

The top choice for long-term allocation is CSC Call Warrant (23932) $CILININ@EC2609A.C (23932.HK)$ , which has a strike price of HK$22.88, matching the first resistance at HK$22.5 and the second resistance region at HK$23.4. The expiration date is September 28, 2026, making it the longest-dated option among similar products with slower time decay. It is suitable for investors who are optimistic about Li Ning's medium- to long-term performance and plan to hold until after the earnings season. The product’s terms spread the holding cost over time, effectively reducing the impact of short-term fluctuations on positions.

The top choice for short-term trading is BOC Call Warrant (22219) $BILININ@EC2605B.C (22219.HK)$ , which has a strike price of HK$23.33, slightly above the second resistance at HK$23.4, offering a leverage of 9.7x. Its key feature lies in relatively lower premiums, and as shown in recent performance, it gained 29% over two days, reflecting its strong short-term explosive potential. For investors expecting the share price to break further above HK$23.4, this product offers high price sensitivity, making it suitable for capturing opportunities in short-term trend extensions.

The top choice for high-leverage cost-effectiveness is (24048) $MSLININ@EC2605A.C (24048.HK)$ , which provides the highest effective leverage in its category while maintaining the lowest premium rate. This means it amplifies profit potential while controlling costs more effectively. The strike price aligns with the resistance zone between HK$22.5 and HK$23.4, allowing investors to participate in post-breakout upside moves at a lower cost. The advantage of effective leverage becomes especially evident during rapid price breakthroughs.

The top choice for balanced allocation is (19364) $MBLININ@EC2605A.C (19364.HK)$This product has a moderate maturity date and strikes a good balance between leverage and premium rates. Sufficient street inventory reflects ideal market participation. For investors who do not want to concentrate on a single product and wish to diversify their holding risks, this product offers a choice that balances income potential with time risk, capturing the opportunity for stock price appreciation without incurring excessive time value decay.

Overall, Li Ning has strongly broken through the key resistance level of HK$21 after its earnings release, showing clear technical improvement, with support and resistance levels re-established. Investors can integrate the key price levels of the underlying stock and their own holding periods to select suitable call warrant products accordingly, while paying attention to how well the product terms match the underlying stock's trend, cautiously managing holding risks.

Interactive Question:

1. Do you think Li Ning can successfully break through the previous high of HK$23.4 in the short term?

A) Yes, the post-earnings trend is strong, and it may challenge new highs.

B) No, there is significant resistance at HK$22.5.

Friendly Reminder:

This article does not constitute any investment advice. It is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; asset performance should be comprehensively evaluated with other data. Trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's Hong Kong warrants insights for more professional analysis.

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