AI and electric vehicles drive growth! Can Xiaomi's rebound momentum continue?

港股窩輪Jenny

joined discussion ·

Technology stocks generally fell but Xiaomi showed resilience with support at 33.3/31.8 yuan, aiming for a high of 38.5 yuan

Xiaomi Group (01810.HK) has recently shown a consolidation pattern at high levels. As of March 18, 2026, Xiaomi closed at HKD 35.14, a slight drop of 0.62% for the day, with an intraday high of HKD 35.37 and a trading volume reaching HKD 4.843 billion. In the early trading session on March 19, Xiaomi announced the release of its flagship base model Xiaomi MiMo-V2-Pro, causing the stock price to open 5.12% higher at HKD 36.94, outperforming the broader market. The market is now focused on Xiaomi's disclosure of its Q4 2025 earnings tomorrow (March 20) and whether the stock price can break through the resistance level of HKD 38.5 post-earnings announcement.

1. Performance of the technology stock sector

The Hong Kong stock market opened lower on March 19 due to external influences, with the Hang Seng Index $Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (800100.HK)$opening 379 points lower at 25,649 points, and the Tech Index $Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$dropping 62 points to open at 5,044 points. Technology stocks were generally under pressure, with Tencent (00700) opening 5.72% lower at HKD 519 as the company indicated that AI investments may reduce share buybacks; Alibaba (09988) $BABA-W (09988.HK)$, NetEase (09999) $NTES-S (09999.HK)$, and Kuaishou (01024) $KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$opening between 1.54% to 4.58% lower, while Meituan (03690) $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$升.93%、京東(09618)$JD-SW (09618.HK)$ Dropped by 1.15%. However, Xiaomi Group, with the release of its AI model, opened higher against the market trend by 2.6%, becoming one of the few bright spots among tech stocks.

II. Technical Analysis

1. Key price levels

Support: First support at 33.3 yuan (10-day line), second key support at 31.8 yuan (early March breakout platform)

Resistance: First resistance at 36.9 yuan, next resistance at 38.5 yuan after a breakout (early year high)

2. Technical indicators

Oscillation indicators overall neutral, RSI 53

Bull-Bear Power, Ichimoku Cloud, Bollinger Bands, and MACD all show buy signals; medium-term upward trend intact

Short-term outlook: Consolidation pending change, likely to trade in the range of 33.3–36.9 yuan

III. Market positive factors

1. Strong mobile phone sales

Xiaomi 15 Ultra achieved over 50% year-on-year sales growth in the domestic market and over 100% growth in overseas pre-sales, continuing to deliver on its premium strategy.

2. Large-scale share repurchase

On March 18, Xiaomi spent approximately RMB 99.9997 million to repurchase 2.8504 million shares. The cumulative repurchases for the year amounted to RMB 4.577 billion, second only to Tencent, reflecting strong confidence from management.

3. Advancing AI strategy

Released the flagship foundational model Xiaomi MiMo-V2-Pro, further enhancing its AI ecosystem.

4. Earnings window period

Q4 earnings will be announced after the market close on March 20, with the market focusing on AI investments and smartphone business performance.

4. Review of Warrants Products

In the review of warrant products, multiple Xiaomi-related derivatives mentioned on March 13, 2026, showed significant performance in the following two trading days (up to March 17). During this period, Xiaomi's stock rose by 6.12%, while related bullish products demonstrated strong leverage effects: J.P. Morgan Bull Certificate (60091) and UBS Group Bull Certificate performed exceptionally well, both rising by 35%; Bank of China Call Warrant (13186) increased by 29%, and HSBC Call Warrant (22791) also rose by 28%.

5. Recommendations and Comparisons of Warrants Products

At the current Xiaomi Group stock price level of 35.14 yuan, combined with support levels at 33.3 yuan and 31.8 yuan, as well as resistance levels at 36.9 yuan and 38.5 yuan, investors can choose suitable products based on their own perspectives.

For bullish strategies, call warrants to consider include HSBC Call Warrant (22791) and Bank of China Call Warrant (13186). The HSBC Call Warrant (22791) has a strike price of 37.12 yuan and offers approximately 4.4 times leverage. This product has the lowest premium, with implied volatility and leverage being relatively ideal, making it suitable for cost-effective bullish strategies. Based on the current share price, it is about 5.6% out-of-the-money, close to the first resistance level of 36.9 yuan, making it suitable for investors who expect the share price to break through 36.9 yuan. The Bank of China Call Warrant (13186) has a strike price of 37.15 yuan and offers about 4.3 times leverage, with the lowest implied volatility and higher leverage, making it suitable for investors focused on volatility risk. For bull certificates, one may consider J.P. Morgan Bull Certificate (61472) with a recall price of 29 yuan and actual leverage of 5 times. This product offers high actual leverage and low premium. Another option is UBS Group Bull Certificate (61805) with a recall price of 29 yuan and actual leverage of 4.9 times, with relatively lower premiums. When selecting bull certificates, note that the recall price should be below the support levels of 33.3 yuan and 31.8 yuan to provide sufficient safety buffer. A recall price of 29 yuan is significantly below both support levels, offering ample margin of safety, making it suitable for conservative strategies.

For bearish strategies, put warrants to consider include HSBC Put Warrant (23111) with a strike price of 29.86 yuan and leverage of 6.3 times. This product has relatively ideal leverage and implied volatility. Another option is Bank of China Put Warrant (23123) with a strike price of 29.86 yuan and leverage of 6.6 times, with the lowest premium and implied volatility among similar products. When selecting put warrants, note that the strike price of 29.86 yuan is below the current stock price, making it an out-of-the-money product. If the stock price falls below the 33.3 yuan support level, this type of product will perform more ideally. For bear certificates, one may consider UBS Group Bear Certificate (59592) with a recall price of 37.8 yuan and actual leverage of 13 times. This product offers the highest actual leverage and lowest premium. Another option is J.P. Morgan Bear Certificate (60434) with a recall price of 37.8 yuan and actual leverage of 13 times, offering the highest actual leverage and lower premium. When choosing bear certificates, ensure the recall price is above the resistance levels of 36.9 yuan and 38.5 yuan. A recall price of 37.8 yuan is slightly above the first resistance level of 36.9 yuan, making it a close-range choice, suitable for investors expecting the stock price to retreat after encountering resistance at 36.9 yuan.

VI. Selected Recommendations for Warrants / Bull-Bear Certificates

1) Bullish Deployment

HSBC Call Warrant (22791) $HSXIAMI@EC2612C.C (22791.HK)$: Strike price 37.12 yuan, approximately 4.4 times leverage, low premium, ideal implied volatility, about 5.6% out-of-the-money, close to 36.9 yuan resistance

J.P. Morgan Bull Certificate (61472) $JP#XIAMIRC2611A.C (61472.HK)$: Recall price 29 yuan, actual leverage 5 times, recall price far below 33.3/31.8 yuan support, high margin of safety

2) Bearish Deployment

BOC Put Warrant (23123) $BIXIAMI@EP2607B.P (23123.HK)$: Strike price 29.86 yuan, leverage 6.6x, lowest premium and implied volatility, optimal cost-effectiveness

UBS Group Bear Certificate (59592) $UB#XIAMIRP2810E.P (59592.HK)$: Recovery price 37.8 yuan, actual leverage 13x, close to the resistance level of 36.9 yuan, suitable for short-term bearish positions

VII. Conclusion

Xiaomi Group is in a critical pre-earnings window period, consolidating at the 35 yuan level, with 36.9 yuan as the short-term pivotal point for strength or weakness

Fundamental positives are concentrated: AI new products, strong smartphone growth, and large-scale buybacks providing support

Risk points: Weakness in tech stocks overall, cautious sentiment surrounding the market

Strategy focuses on support levels at 33.3/31.8 yuan and resistance levels at 36.9/38.5 yuan, paired with corresponding leveraged instruments while strictly controlling risks.

VIII. Interactive Q&A:

What do readers think will happen to Xiaomi Group (01810) after its earnings report?

A) Breaking through the resistance at 36.9 yuan, further testing 38.5 yuan

B) Consolidating and oscillating in the range of 33.3 yuan to 36.9 yuan

C) Breaking down below the support at 33.3 yuan, retesting 31.8 yuan

Feel free to share your views in the comment section!

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data and should not solely rely on this article to make trading decisions. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.

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