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港股窩輪Jenny
wrote a column · Mar 17 10:21

BYD's technical indicators are showing a top divergence, and short-term adjustment pressure is increasing

In the short term, the new energy vehicle sector as a whole is relatively strong, but $BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$
most stocks in the same sector are showing a 'price rise, weak signal' divergence. The technical picture suggests caution for short-term adjustments, and actions should be carefully followed up.
In our [Hong Kong Stock Broadcast] on the previous day (March 16), we commented on BYD: the recent trend has clearly strengthened, with the share price closing at HKD 104.3 on the latest trading day. From the daily chart perspective, the stock formed a phase low around HKD 88.5, then gradually recovered, recently consolidating between approximately HKD 96 to 100, and broke out significantly higher in the latest trading session, reaching an intraday high of HKD 104.8, returning to this year’s high-price region.March 16 [HKEX Podcast] Hang Seng Index, CATL, BYD, China Tourism Group Duty Free, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Akeso Biopharma $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$CATL (03750.HK)$$CTG DUTY-FREE (01880.HK)$$HUA HONG SEMI (01347.HK)$$AKESO (09926.HK)$
Regarding technical indicators, the short-term moving averages have re-aligned upwards. The 5-day line is around HKD 98.9, the 10-day line around HKD 97.1, the 20-day line around HKD 97.3, and the 30-day line around HKD 96.3. The current stock price is above these short-to-medium term moving averages, indicating that the short-term trend has again turned bullish. However, from a long-term structural view, the 250-day line is around HKD 112, currently still above the stock price; thus, the area near HKD 112 remains an important medium-term technical reference point.
In the short term, the new energy vehicle sector as a whole is relatively strong, but $BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$ most stocks in the same sector are showing a 'price rise, weak signal' divergence. The technical picture suggests caution for short-term adjustments, and actions should be carefully followed up. In our [Hong Kong Stock Broadcast] on the previous day (March 16), we commented on BYD: the recent trend has clearly strengthened, with the share price closing at HKD 104.3 on the latest trading day. From the daily chart perspective, the stock formed a phase low around HKD 88.5, then gradually recovered, recently consolidating between approximately HKD 96 to 100, and broke out significantly higher in the latest trading session, reaching an intraday high of HKD 104.8, returning to this year’s high-price region.[Share Link: March 16 [HKEX Podcast] Hang Seng Index, CATL, BYD, China Tourism Group Duty Free, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Akeso Biopharma ]$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$CATL (03750.HK)$$CTG DUTY-FREE (01880.HK)$$HUA HONG SEMI (01347.HK)$$AKESO (09926.HK)$ Regarding technical indicators, the short-term moving averages have re-aligned upwards. The 5-day line is around HKD 98.9, the 10-day line around HKD 97.1, the 20-day line around HKD 97.3, and the 30-day line around HKD 96.3. The current stock price is above these short-to-medium term moving averages, indicating that the short-term trend has again turned bullish. However, from a long-term structural view, the 25...
From the core technical data of the day, BYD's single-day increase reached 7.80%, with a trading volume of 5.818 billion yuan. The stock price moved above the three major moving averages: MA10, MA30, and MA60, showing strong momentum. However, the overall technical indicator signal is "sell". The RSI indicator at 53 is in a moderately strong range but shows a top divergence signal, forming a typical "price increase but weakening momentum" divergence. This detail deserves attention from all investors.
In the short term, the new energy vehicle sector as a whole is relatively strong, but $BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$ most stocks in the same sector are showing a 'price rise, weak signal' divergence. The technical picture suggests caution for short-term adjustments, and actions should be carefully followed up. In our [Hong Kong Stock Broadcast] on the previous day (March 16), we commented on BYD: the recent trend has clearly strengthened, with the share price closing at HKD 104.3 on the latest trading day. From the daily chart perspective, the stock formed a phase low around HKD 88.5, then gradually recovered, recently consolidating between approximately HKD 96 to 100, and broke out significantly higher in the latest trading session, reaching an intraday high of HKD 104.8, returning to this year’s high-price region.[Share Link: March 16 [HKEX Podcast] Hang Seng Index, CATL, BYD, China Tourism Group Duty Free, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Akeso Biopharma ]$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$CATL (03750.HK)$$CTG DUTY-FREE (01880.HK)$$HUA HONG SEMI (01347.HK)$$AKESO (09926.HK)$ Regarding technical indicators, the short-term moving averages have re-aligned upwards. The 5-day line is around HKD 98.9, the 10-day line around HKD 97.1, the 20-day line around HKD 97.3, and the 30-day line around HKD 96.3. The current stock price is above these short-to-medium term moving averages, indicating that the short-term trend has again turned bullish. However, from a long-term structural view, the 25...
In terms of support and resistance levels, BYD’s short-term first support level is 96.4 yuan, and the second support level is 95.3 yuan. The short-term first resistance level is 111.3 yuan, and the second resistance level is 113.2 yuan. Going forward, it will be important to observe the stock’s defensive strength at the support levels and its ability to break through resistance levels.
Technical Analysis of the New Energy Sector: General Rise Amid Collective Warning Signals from Technical Indicators.
On March 16, the new energy vehicle sector performed strongly overall. Except for a slight decline in XPeng Motors, BYD, Li Auto, Nio, and Geely all recorded gains, with particularly notable increases in BYD and Nio, showing active market sentiment in the sector. However, from a technical perspective, the sector exhibited clear characteristics of "general price rise but warning signals from technical indicators," which can be broken down as follows:
1、 $LI AUTO-W (02015.HK)$ : Increased by 2.95% in a single day, with stable moving average positions. Technical signal indicates "sell," while the neutral RSI suggests short-term consolidation needs.
2、 $XPENG-W (09868.HK)$ : Despite a slight drop, the stock remains above the moving average. With an RSI of 62 entering a stronger zone, the technical signal gives a "strong sell" indication, making it the most cautionary stock among peers.
3、 $NIO-SW (09866.HK)$ : Rose 5.00% in a single day, reclaiming the moving average, but with an RSI as high as 69, the technical signal is "sell," indicating significant adjustment pressure in an overbought condition.
4、 $GEELY AUTO (00175.HK)$ : Increased 3.56% in a single day, with a technically strong bias. RSI at 60 is in a stronger zone, but the technical signal is "sell," suggesting the need for a technical correction after consecutive rises.
5、 $GWMOTOR (02333.HK)$ : Gained 2.73% in a single day, breaking through short- and medium-term moving averages. RSI at 47 is close to neutral, with a technical signal of "neutral." It is the only stock in the sector without a bearish signal, showing a relatively ambiguous trend.
Overall, after a continuous rebound, most stocks in the new energy vehicle sector have entered the overbought region according to technical indicators, accumulating some profit-taking pressure in the short term. This is the most critical technical characteristic of the sector on this day.
Review and Selection of BYD Warrants and Bull/Bear Products:
(1) Review of Previous BYD Warrants and Bull/Bear Products:
Reviewing the BYD-related warrant and bull/bear products recommended on March 10, their overall performance was impressive: $HS-BYD @EC2608A.C (25528.HK)$ A 6% increase within 2 days, $UB#BYD RC2607X.C (57321.HK)$ A 10% increase within 2 days, $UB-BYD @EC2608A.C (25678.HK)$ A 7% increase, $BI#BYD RC2612D.C (55018.HK)$ An 8% increase, all outperforming the 1.29% gain of BYD's underlying stock during the same period, providing a good reference for investors focused on derivatives.
In the short term, the new energy vehicle sector as a whole is relatively strong, but $BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$ most stocks in the same sector are showing a 'price rise, weak signal' divergence. The technical picture suggests caution for short-term adjustments, and actions should be carefully followed up. In our [Hong Kong Stock Broadcast] on the previous day (March 16), we commented on BYD: the recent trend has clearly strengthened, with the share price closing at HKD 104.3 on the latest trading day. From the daily chart perspective, the stock formed a phase low around HKD 88.5, then gradually recovered, recently consolidating between approximately HKD 96 to 100, and broke out significantly higher in the latest trading session, reaching an intraday high of HKD 104.8, returning to this year’s high-price region.[Share Link: March 16 [HKEX Podcast] Hang Seng Index, CATL, BYD, China Tourism Group Duty Free, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Akeso Biopharma ]$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$CATL (03750.HK)$$CTG DUTY-FREE (01880.HK)$$HUA HONG SEMI (01347.HK)$$AKESO (09926.HK)$ Regarding technical indicators, the short-term moving averages have re-aligned upwards. The 5-day line is around HKD 98.9, the 10-day line around HKD 97.1, the 20-day line around HKD 97.3, and the 30-day line around HKD 96.3. The current stock price is above these short-to-medium term moving averages, indicating that the short-term trend has again turned bullish. However, from a long-term structural view, the 25...
(2) Selection of BYD Warrant Products:
Based on BYD's technical trend and product characteristics on that day, two warrant products with high cost-performance are selected for investors' reference:
1、 $UB-BYD @EC2608A.C (25678.HK)$ : Actual leverage of 5.1, exercise price at 106.98 yuan. The advantage is its relatively higher leverage, suitable for investors optimistic about BYD breaking through resistance levels in the short term and seeking moderate returns;
2、 $HS-BYD @EC2608A.C (25528.HK)$Actual leverage is 5.2x, strike price at 106.98 yuan, with the lowest premium and implied volatility, offering relatively controllable risk. Suitable for investors who are optimistic about the market outlook but seek steady returns.
In the short term, the new energy vehicle sector as a whole is relatively strong, but $BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$ most stocks in the same sector are showing a 'price rise, weak signal' divergence. The technical picture suggests caution for short-term adjustments, and actions should be carefully followed up. In our [Hong Kong Stock Broadcast] on the previous day (March 16), we commented on BYD: the recent trend has clearly strengthened, with the share price closing at HKD 104.3 on the latest trading day. From the daily chart perspective, the stock formed a phase low around HKD 88.5, then gradually recovered, recently consolidating between approximately HKD 96 to 100, and broke out significantly higher in the latest trading session, reaching an intraday high of HKD 104.8, returning to this year’s high-price region.[Share Link: March 16 [HKEX Podcast] Hang Seng Index, CATL, BYD, China Tourism Group Duty Free, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Akeso Biopharma ]$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$CATL (03750.HK)$$CTG DUTY-FREE (01880.HK)$$HUA HONG SEMI (01347.HK)$$AKESO (09926.HK)$ Regarding technical indicators, the short-term moving averages have re-aligned upwards. The 5-day line is around HKD 98.9, the 10-day line around HKD 97.1, the 20-day line around HKD 97.3, and the 30-day line around HKD 96.3. The current stock price is above these short-to-medium term moving averages, indicating that the short-term trend has again turned bullish. However, from a long-term structural view, the 25...
In the short term, the new energy vehicle sector as a whole is relatively strong, but $BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$ most stocks in the same sector are showing a 'price rise, weak signal' divergence. The technical picture suggests caution for short-term adjustments, and actions should be carefully followed up. In our [Hong Kong Stock Broadcast] on the previous day (March 16), we commented on BYD: the recent trend has clearly strengthened, with the share price closing at HKD 104.3 on the latest trading day. From the daily chart perspective, the stock formed a phase low around HKD 88.5, then gradually recovered, recently consolidating between approximately HKD 96 to 100, and broke out significantly higher in the latest trading session, reaching an intraday high of HKD 104.8, returning to this year’s high-price region.[Share Link: March 16 [HKEX Podcast] Hang Seng Index, CATL, BYD, China Tourism Group Duty Free, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Akeso Biopharma ]$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$CATL (03750.HK)$$CTG DUTY-FREE (01880.HK)$$HUA HONG SEMI (01347.HK)$$AKESO (09926.HK)$ Regarding technical indicators, the short-term moving averages have re-aligned upwards. The 5-day line is around HKD 98.9, the 10-day line around HKD 97.1, the 20-day line around HKD 97.3, and the 30-day line around HKD 96.3. The current stock price is above these short-to-medium term moving averages, indicating that the short-term trend has again turned bullish. However, from a long-term structural view, the 25...
Risk Warning: Warrants and callable bull/bear contracts are highly volatile derivatives. Investors should assess their own risk tolerance, participate rationally, and avoid blindly following trends.
The new energy sector has generally risen, but technical signals collectively warn of a possible correction. Do you think the sector will consolidate sideways or directly pull back?
A, Consolidate sideways; B, Direct pullback; C, Depends on the leading stock BYD's movement. Feel free to share your insights in the comments section.
For more market analysis, stay tuned to Jenny's daily updates on 'Hong Kong Stock Warrants'!
Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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