The Hang Seng Index has fallen below multiple moving averages, but the technical indicators show a strong signal of price decline. The short-term outlook involves fluctuations while seeking a bottom.

On March 12th, the Hong Kong stock market experienced an overall pullback, with mixed performances from blue-chip stocks. Technical indicators generally signaled buying opportunities, and the short-term market trend is inclined towards consolidation at the bottom, with potential for a technical rebound.

In our [Hong Kong Stock Broadcast] from the previous day (March 12th)March 12 [Hong Kong Stock Podcast] Hang Seng Index, Yanzhou Coal Energy, Goldwind Technologies, Chalco, Pop Mart, XiaomiThere are comments in the middle.$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$

: The index closed at 25,716.76 points, falling 182 points in a single day, or about 0.7%. Observing the recent trend, after an earlier rebound, the index fell again and is now trading below several short- and medium-term moving averages, indicating that short-term momentum has weakened and investor sentiment is gradually becoming more cautious. $YANKUANG ENERGY (01171.HK)$$GOLDWIND (02208.HK)$$CHALCO (02600.HK)$$POP MART (09992.HK)$$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$

From a technical perspective, the Hang Seng Index is currently below the 10-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages. The 10-day moving average is around 25,777 points, the 20-day moving average is near 26,287 points, and the 50-day moving average is close to 26,527 points. This arrangement of moving averages typically indicates that both short-term and medium-term trends are in an adjustment phase. It will be difficult for the market to see sustained upward momentum until the index moves back above the 10-day moving average.

In terms of momentum indicators, the 9-day RSI is at 42.98, retreating from the neutral zone to weaker levels. Although the RSI has not entered oversold territory, it already reflects weakening buying momentum in the market. Therefore, in the short term, the index is more likely to remain volatile or gradually seek support.

For support and resistance, the first short-term resistance level is near 25,780 points (the position of the 10-day moving average). If the index can stabilize above this area, the short-term trend may improve. The first support level is around 25,500 points. If it breaks below this level, it may test further support near 25,200 points.

The Hong Kong stock market has seen an overall correction, with key blue-chip stocks showing mixed performance the previous day. Technical signals have significantly strengthened; the following is a brief analysis of their technical highlights:

1、 $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ : Closed at 546.5 HKD (down 1.00%), above the MA10, but below the MA30 and MA60. RSI at 53 indicates a neutral signal, with short-term direction awaiting a breakout through the moving averages.

2、 $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ : Closed at 131.6 HKD (down 1.20%), below all major moving averages. RSI at 35 (near oversold territory) indicates a buy signal (strength 7), reflecting accumulated rebound demand.

3、 $HKEX (00388.HK)$ : Closed at 406.4 HKD (down 1.22%), below the MA10 and MA30, but above the MA60. RSI at 45 indicates a strong buy signal (strength 7), suggesting strong rebound momentum.

4、 $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ : Closed at 76.7 HKD (down 0.90%), below all major moving averages. RSI at 32 (oversold territory) indicates a buy signal (strength 7), with a clear short-term rebound opportunity.

5、 $CCB (00939.HK)$ : Closed at 7.92 HKD (up 1.80%), above the MA10 and MA30, but below the MA60. RSI at 43 indicates a sell signal (strength 3); watch for profit-taking pressure.

6、 $AIA (01299.HK)$ : Closed at 84.35 HKD (down 2.43%), below the MA10 and MA30, but slightly above the MA60. RSI at 51 indicates a sell signal; monitor MA60 support.

7、 $ICBC (01398.HK)$ : Closed at HKD 6.31 (up 1.45%), slightly below MA10 and MA30, but above MA60, RSI 39, buy signal (strength 7), limited downside risk.

8、 $CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$ : Closed at HKD 79.0 (unchanged), above MA10 and MA30, but below MA60, RSI 46, neutral signal, narrow range consolidation awaits breakout.

9、 $HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK)$ : Closed at HKD 128.9 (down 3.08%), below all major moving averages, RSI 44, neutral signal, potential for recovery after short-term adjustment.

10、 $PING AN (02318.HK)$ : Closed at HKD 62.85 (down 1.02%), below all major moving averages, RSI 37, buy signal (strength 7), rebound expected after oversold condition.

Review and selection of call warrants and bull/bear products:

Let’s first review the performance of previously recommended warrant and bull/bear products: The Hang Seng Index-related warrants and bull certificates recommended on March 6th showed solid gains, with $BI#HSI RC2807V.C (53747.HK)$ a 20% increase two days later, $BI#HSI RC2807D.C (68194.HK)$ and a 17% increase two days later; HSBC call warrant (23723) rose 5% two days later, overall performance aligned with technical expectations.

Here are two selected Hang Seng Index-related warrant products for your reference:

First one: $HS-HSI @EC2605B.C (23723.HK)$ , leverage 15.3, strike price 26,733, its biggest advantage is having the lowest premium and implied volatility, offering good value for investors optimistic about a short-term rebound in the Hang Seng Index.

Second one: $BI#HSI RC2809E.C (54626.HK)$ , leverage 24, recovery price 24,750, relatively low premium, reasonable leverage, suitable for investors who want to seize the rebound opportunity in the Hang Seng Index while managing risk.

Risk Warning: Warrants are derivatives with significant leverage effects. Whether call warrants or bull/bear certificates, it's important to set stop-loss and act within your means.

The market on March 12 can be summarized as 'price drop but strong signals,' where the stock price decline contrasts sharply with widespread buy signals from technical indicators. This is an important technical sign that the market may be nearing a short-term bottom. Focus on warrants with low premiums and reasonable leverage, and manage risk effectively.

The Hang Seng Index has fallen below all moving averages, but technical indicators are frequently showing buy signals. What do you think now is:

A. A drop below 25,000 is imminent

B. A rebound will start within three days

C. Wait for the market to give clear signals

Feel free to share your insights in the comment section. For more market analysis, please continue following ‘Hong Kong Stock Warrants Jenny’ for daily updates!

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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