The Hang Seng Index (HSI) technical signal indicates a buy; can trading volume support the continuation of the rebound?

On the previous day (March 10), Hong Kong stocks experienced a strong rebound, $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$

The market closed at 25,959.9 points, rising 2.17% in a single day with a turnover of 330.929 billion yuan; the Technology Index (HSTECH) surged 2.40%, closing at 5,060.53 points. Overall, the rise of heavyweight blue chips led the broader market, with most stocks experiencing rebounds, but the trend has not completely reversed yet—it’s a typical technically oversold recovery movement.

From a technical indicator perspective, the Hang Seng Index technical signal is 'Buy', strength 7, with multiple oscillation indicators suggesting the market is in a bottoming phase following severe overselling, with strong rebound momentum. The RSI is 44, within the neutral range, confirming the oversold recovery trend.

Regarding moving averages, the Hang Seng Index closed at 25,959.9 points, slightly above MA10 (25,930.17 points), but below MA30 (26,629.88 points) and MA60 (26,369.06 points).

Support and resistance levels: First support level at 25,785.85 points, second support level at 25,524.76 points; first resistance level at 26,133.96 points, second resistance level at 26,220.98 points. Subsequent attention should focus on whether resistance levels are broken and how support levels hold up. However, note that most stocks have not yet broken through their medium-term moving averages, and whether the rebound continues depends on trading volume cooperation and leading stock momentum.

Blue chips collectively rebounded the previous day (March 10), and with a concise breakdown using technical indicators, it allows investors to quickly grasp market trends:

1. Tencent (00700): Closing price at 553.5 yuan, surging 7.27% in a single day, RSI 45, above MA10 and MA30 but below MA60, in the early stages of a rebound.

2. Alibaba (09988): Closing price at 133.5 yuan, surging 3.73% in a single day, RSI 33, slightly below MA10, still near an oversold condition.

3. Ping An (02318): Closing price at 63.45 yuan, rising 1.28% in a single day, RSI 38, below all moving averages, with a strong technical buy signal.

4. AIA (01299): Closing price at HKD 85.65, surged 4.71% in a single day, RSI at 50, breaking through three major moving averages. Technical signals temporarily indicate a sell.

5. HSBC Holdings (00005): Closing price at HKD 135.9, surged 4.62% in a single day, RSI at 49, below MA10, above MA30 and MA60, showing strengthening momentum.

6. Hong Kong Exchange (00388): Closing price at HKD 416.6, rose 2.36% in a single day, RSI at 50, above MA10, below MA30 and MA60, technical indicators improved.

7. China Construction Bank (00939): Closing price at HKD 7.91, slightly fell 0.13% in a single day, RSI at 51, consolidating within a narrow range, lacking clear direction technically.

8. China Mobile (00941): Closing price at HKD 78.8, rose 0.57% in a single day, RSI at 46, struggling near short-term moving averages, direction unclear.

9. CK Hutchison Holdings (00001): Closing price at HKD 60.0, rose 2.04% in a single day, RSI at 41, below MA10 and MA30, above MA60, rebound constrained by short-term moving averages.

10. Meituan (03690): Closing price at HKD 79.1, slightly rose 0.51% in a single day, RSI at 36, slightly above MA10, still in deeply oversold territory.

The core driver of yesterday's rebound was technical recovery, with the RSI of most stocks bouncing back to the 30-50 range. There’s no need for overly aggressive trading; the focus should be on tracking volume and breakouts above medium-term moving averages.

Review and selection of CBBC (Callable Bull/Bear Contracts):

The rebound in the Hang Seng Index drove related CBBCs higher. First, let's review the performance of previously recommended products, then highlight two high-value picks for investors' reference:

(1) Review of previous products:

Warrants and bull/bear products related to the Hang Seng Index recommended on March 4 achieved solid gains two days later, with UBS Group's bull certificate (65007) and Bank of China's bull certificate (68201) rising 46% and 47%, respectively, closely following the Hang Seng Index’s 2.01% increase, demonstrating significant leverage effects.

(II) Selected Products:

Highlighting two products with more competitive premiums and implied volatility, well-aligned with the market rebound rhythm:

1. HSBC call warrant (23723): Leverage of 15x, exercise price at 26,733 points, core advantage being the lowest premium and implied volatility, suitable for investors optimistic about a short-term rebound in the Hang Seng Index.

2. Bank of China bull certificate (69774): Leverage of 23.6x, recovery price at 24,850 points, relatively low premium, sufficient leverage strength, sensitive to fluctuations in the Hang Seng Index.

Risk Warning: CBBCs are derivatives with high volatility. Investors should trade based on their risk tolerance and manage position sizes carefully.

Yesterday (the 10th), Hong Kong stocks experienced a technical rebound after being oversold, led by heavyweight blue chips driving the broader market. However, most stocks remain constrained by medium-term moving averages, and a trend reversal has yet to form. Moving forward, three factors require close attention: first, whether leading stocks like Tencent can sustain momentum; second, whether market trading volume can expand significantly; third, whether individual stocks and the Hang Seng Index can break through key moving averages such as MA30 and MA60 on higher volume. Maintain rationality in operations, avoid blindly chasing highs, focus on stocks with improving technical indicators and good volume support, and manage risks prudently.

The Hang Seng Index has rebounded. Do you think it can continue to break through the MA30? A. Yes B. No C. Undecided. Feel free to share your insights in the comments section.

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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