Entering mid-March, the Hong Kong stock new energy sector showed divergent trends. As of March 9, 2026, CATL (03750) $CATL (03750.HK)$ closed at 503 yuan, down 1.95% on the day, with a turnover of 1.881 billion yuan. The 5-day volatility was 8.5%, with the price hovering around the 500-yuan mark. Today (March 10), driven by earnings results, the stock rebounded, hitting an intraday high of 522 yuan, and is currently trading at 550 yuan, up 9.34%.

In terms of market news, the company released its 2025 annual report on the evening of March 9, showing impressive performance. The annual report indicates that in 2025, the company achieved revenue of approximately 423.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.04%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was approximately 72.2 billion yuan, up 42.28% year-on-year. At the same time, the company disclosed a preliminary profit distribution proposal for the 2025 fiscal year, planning to distribute cash dividends of 69.57 yuan per 10 shares (including tax) to all shareholders, totaling approximately 31.5 billion yuan. Adding this to the interim dividend already distributed in 2025, the company's total dividend payout ratio reached 50%. Additionally, on March 9, the company held a board meeting where they approved the issuance of bonds not exceeding 40 billion yuan, intended for project construction, replenishing working capital, and repaying interest-bearing debt, aiming to optimize the debt structure and reduce financing costs.
From a technical analysis perspective, CATL’s recent share price has been fluctuating around the 500-yuan level. Currently, the stock price is roughly aligned with the 10-day moving average (501.93 yuan) and the 60-day moving average (500.03 yuan), while the 30-day moving average (499.39 yuan) provides slight support. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 45, which is in the neutral zone, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions, reflecting unclear short-term direction. Notably, there are discrepancies among multiple technical indicators: bullish-bearish strength indicators and Bollinger Bands signal a buy, but the Stochastic Oscillator, Psychological Line indicator, and MACD suggest selling. The CCI indicator also signals selling. The overall indicator count points to “sell,” with intensity reaching 10, suggesting potential short-term consolidation pressure.
In terms of support and resistance levels, the primary current support level is at RMB 480, which serves as a key short-term defense line. If it breaks below this level, the next crucial support zone to test would be RMB 458.The upper resistance levels are concentrated at RMB 527 and RMB 548.Among these, RMB 527 represents the key target for a short-term breakout.Notably, the company’s fundamentals are improving, with strong earnings growth; however, the stock price movement is influenced by overall market sentiment. Investors should closely monitor whether the stock price can stabilize near the RMB 480 support level.Given the latest stock price of RMB 503, which is currently between the support level of RMB 480 and the resistance level of RMB 527, short-term trading should be viewed as range-bound fluctuations.

Reviewing the performance of warrant products, the four CATL bullish warrants we mentioned on March 3 showed outstanding performance in the following two days, effectively capturing the rise in the underlying stock. Societe Generale Bull Certificate (59850) $SG#CATL RC2609A.C (59850.HK)$ recorded a 32% increase over the two days after being mentioned, while the underlying stock rose by 2.63% during the same period; Societe Generale Warrant (23008) $SG-CATL@EC2605A.C (23008.HK)$ rose by 19%; UBS Group Bull Certificate (product code pending) increased by 25%; and Bank of China Warrant (24328) gained 28%. All four significantly outperformed the underlying stock, fully demonstrating the leverage effect of derivatives, with bull certificate products performing particularly well, reflecting higher sensitivity to rebounds in the underlying stock.

In terms of deploying warrant and bull-bear certificate products, investors can choose from the following products based on their own risk preferences, in conjunction with the current support and resistance levels.
For call warrants, UBS Group Call Warrant (24783) and Bank of China Call Warrant (23687), both have an exercise price of RMB 600.4, offering approximately 9.6 to 9.7 times leverage. This exercise price is related to the critical resistance levels of RMB 527 and RMB 548, making them suitable for investors expecting the stock price to break through resistance and challenge the RMB 600 mark. The advantage of UBS Group Call Warrant (24783) lies in its relatively higher leverage, reaching 9.7 times, whereas the Bank of China Call Warrant (23687) offers the highest leverage with lower premium, making it more attractive for investors seeking amplified effects and aiming to control time value costs.
For put warrants, Bank of China Put Warrant (26420) and HSBC Put Warrant (26392) both have an exercise price of RMB 408.68, providing about 5.1 to 5.2 times leverage. This exercise price is linked to the key support levels of RMB 480 and below RMB 458, making them suitable for investors expecting the stock price to further test the support levels. The advantage of Bank of China Put Warrant (26420) is its relatively higher leverage, reaching 5.1 times, while HSBC Put Warrant (26392) has the lowest premium and implied volatility, offering stronger downside protection for valuation-sensitive investors.

Regarding the bull certificates, HSBC's bull certificate (68836) $HS#CATL RC2611A.C (68836.HK)$ The recovery price for both HSBC bull certificate (68836) and UBS Group bull certificate (67846) is set at 420 yuan, offering an actual leverage of approximately 4.9 to 5.3 times. This recovery price is below the current key support level of 480 yuan, providing a certain buffer zone, making it suitable for investors expecting the stock price to stabilize and rebound at the 480-yuan support level. The advantage of HSBC bull certificate (68836) lies in its lowest premium and higher actual leverage, reaching 5.3 times, while UBS Group bull certificate (67846) has the highest actual leverage, reaching 4.9 times, which offers greater appeal to investors seeking a magnified effect.
For bear certificates, UBS Group’s bear certificate (59966) $UB#CATL RP2812A.P (59966.HK)$ has a recovery price of 550 yuan, providing 6.8 times actual leverage. This recovery price is linked to the current key resistance levels between 527 yuan and 548 yuan, suitable for investors expecting the share price rebound to be constrained by resistance levels. The advantage of UBS Group’s bear certificate (59966) lies in its highest actual leverage, reaching 6.8 times, making it an efficient choice for bearish positions.
In summary, investors optimistic about CATL's rebound may consider Bank of China's call warrant (23687) $BI-CATL@EC2606B.C (23687.HK)$ to capture breakout movements, or HSBC’s bull certificate (68836) for higher leverage deployment; while bearish investors might consider HSBC’s put warrant (26392) to hedge downside risk at a low cost, or UBS Group’s bear certificate (59966) with the highest leverage to capture downward trends.
Interactive Questions:
Dear readers, despite CATL (03750) showing impressive earnings, its stock price remains under pressure. Do you think it can successfully hold above the 548-yuan resistance in the short term?
Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments section!
Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data and should not solely rely on this article to make trading decisions. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.
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Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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