The US-Iran peace talks present conflicting narratives! What’s next for oil prices?
Financial Daily: Crude oil surged 30% intraday before plummeting! US stocks staged a stunning V-shaped recovery. Can the G7's emergency measures stabilize inflation expectations?
- Focus
– The Group of Seven (G7) stated they are prepared to take "necessary measures" to support global energy supply, but no decision has been made yet.
– US President Trump hinted that the war in the Middle East may end soon
– Anthropic officially sued the Trump administration on Monday, opposing its inclusion on the blacklist and being labeled a threat to US national security
Content compiled by the 'Harbor Family Office' under Henry Group. It does not constitute any investment or trading advice. Stay tuned.
- Stock Market
[US Market] All three major US stock indexes closed higher, showing a V-shaped trend throughout the day
On Monday, crude oil futures prices continued to rise due to almost complete stoppage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, with daily gains nearing 30%. Inflation concerns heightened as the US stock market opened lower and continued to decline. However, after news came that the G7 was prepared to take 'necessary measures' to support global energy supplies, and following Trump’s hint that the Middle East conflict might end soon, oil prices plummeted. The US stock market rebounded sharply before closing, with all three major indexes finishing higher.
At the close, the S&P 500 Index rose 0.83% to 6,795.99 points; the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 1.38% to 22,695.946 points; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.50% to 47,740.80 points. The semiconductor ETF surged over 3.5%, while the global technology index ETF jumped more than 2%.
The index of the seven major US tech giants closed up 1.34%, with NVIDIA gaining 2.72% and Google A rising 2.70%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index climbed 1.76% to 7,083.84 points. Among popular Chinese stocks, BYD surged 6%, Meituan rose over 5.5%, Baidu gained nearly 3%, and Tencent increased over 2%.
[European Market] European major country stock indexes continued to fall on Monday
On Monday, European major country stock indexes extended their declines. The pan-European index has fallen more than 6% since March. At the close, the pan-European STOXX 600 Index dropped 0.63% to 594.92 points, down 6.14% since March. The pan-European STOXX 50 Index fell 0.61% to 5,685.20 points, down 7.45% since March.
The German DAX 30 Index fell 0.77% to 23,409.37 points; the French CAC 40 Index declined 0.98% to 7,915.36 points; and the UK FTSE 100 Index dropped 0.34% to 10,249.52 points.
[Asian Market] Asian stock markets plunged on Monday, with major Japanese and South Korean indexes falling more than 5%
Asian stock markets performed 'dismally' on Monday, with major Japanese and Korean indices falling over 5%. By the close, the Nikkei 225 index dropped 5.20% to 52,728.72 points; the TOPIX index fell 3.80% to 3,575.84 points. The KOSPI index in South Korea dropped 5.96% to 5,251.87 points.
[Hong Kong Market] All three major Hong Kong stock indexes closed lower
Hong Kong stocks rebounded after a lower open on Monday, narrowing losses, with all three major indices closing lower, and the Hang Seng Index falling more than 1%. By the close, the Hang Seng Index was down 1.35% at 25,408.46 points; the Hang Seng TECH Index fell 0.12% to 4,941.73 points; the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped 0.54% to 8,581.46 points. In terms of sectors, AI large model stocks gained strength, with MiniMax surging over 23%, while internet stocks generally declined, with NetEase closing down 2.8%, and Baidu Group and Alibaba dropping over 1.5%. Energy shares were mixed, with China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation down over 4%, while China Shenhua and CNOOC rose over 3%.
[A-share Market] A-shares reversed early losses to trade higher, with the three major indices narrowing their declines.
A-shares reversed early losses to trade higher on Monday, with the three major indices narrowing their declines. By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index was down 0.67% at 4,096.60 points; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.74% to 14,067.50 points; and the ChiNext Index dropped 0.64% to 3,208.58 points. Stocks related to the OpenClaw concept surged collectively, with QingCloud Technology jumping 20%, and Capital Online and Wangsu Science & Technology rising over 12%; the AI computing power sector performed strongly, with China Great Wall among several stocks hitting the daily limit. Sectors such as shipping, petrochemicals, aviation, and defense saw significant declines.
– Bonds
[US Bonds] US Treasury yields fell.
In late New York trading, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell by 3.86 basis points to 4.0996%, while the yield on the two-year Treasury note dropped by 1.43 basis points to 3.5462%.
[Non-US Bond Markets] Yields on 10-year European government bonds opened higher but closed lower.
Yields on 10-year European government bonds opened higher but closed mixed on Monday. In late European trading, the yield on Germany's 10-year bond fell by about 0.1 basis points to 2.859%, while the yield on the UK's 10-year bond rose by 2 basis points to 4.647%.
[China Bond Market] Government bond futures fell across the board on Monday.
Government bond futures fell across the board on Monday, with the 30-year main contract dropping more than 1%. By the close, the 30-year main contract fell 1.11%, the 10-year main contract dropped 0.21%, the 5-year main contract decreased 0.14%, and the 2-year main contract fell 0.04%.
– Foreign exchange
The US Dollar Index surged then pulled back, with the ICE US Dollar Index rising by 0.19%.
The US Dollar Index surged then retreated, giving up most of its intraday gains. In late New York trading, the ICE US Dollar Index rose by 0.19% to 99.17 points, while the Bloomberg US Dollar Index increased by 0.10% to 1,204.63 points.
Non-US Dollar Currencies: The US dollar weakened against most major currencies.
The US dollar weakened against most major global currencies. In late New York trading, the US dollar rose 0.08% against the Japanese yen to 157.91 yen. The euro gained 0.16% against the US dollar, and the British pound rose 0.29% against the US dollar. The Australian dollar climbed 0.73% against the US dollar.
Offshore Chinese Yuan: The US dollar was at 6.8875 yuan.
In late New York trading, the US dollar rose by 125 points against the offshore Chinese yuan from the previous trading day’s close, reaching 6.8875 yuan. The onshore Chinese yuan fell by 202 points against the US dollar from the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 6.9183 yuan.
Cryptocurrencies: The cryptocurrency market rebounded, with Bitcoin gaining 2.6% intraday.
On Monday, the cryptocurrency market rebounded, with Bitcoin rising by 2.6% and Ethereum climbing by 3.45%.
– Product
Energy: Crude oil futures prices fluctuated sharply, with intraday gains once approaching 30%.
Crude oil futures prices experienced sharp fluctuations, with US crude oil rising nearly 30% intraday before quickly trimming gains following news from the G7 and Trump. By the end of US stock trading, Brent crude futures were up 6.8%, settling at $98.96 per barrel, while US crude futures gained 4.3%, settling at $94.77 per barrel.
Precious metals generally trended upward, with spot gold prices falling over 0.6%.
Precious Metals:In the New York session close, spot gold reversed losses to gains, closing down 0.67% at $5,137.24 per ounce; US gold futures closed down 0.26% at $5,145.50 per ounce.
Metals Futures Market:Precious metals prices generally rose, with spot silver climbing 3% to $86.9 per ounce; US silver futures were up 3.07% at $86.885 per ounce. US copper futures climbed 1.6% to $5.9 per pound; spot platinum rose 1.45%, and spot palladium surged 4.14%.
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