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港股窩輪Jenny
wrote a column · Mar 5 14:26

Intensified tug-of-war between bulls and bears, when will Pop Mart (09992) see a turning point?

$POP MART (09992.HK)$ The stock price surged and then pulled back today, closing at HKD 206.4, down 0.29%. The stock has shown significant volatility recently, with a five-day trading range of 13.4%, indicating fierce competition between bulls and bears. From the moving average system perspective, the current stock price is below the 10-day moving average (HKD 226.74), the 30-day moving average (HKD 230.61), and the 60-day moving average (HKD 212.97), remaining under pressure from the moving averages, reflecting a weaker short-term trend.
Data on derivative products' street-level positions over the last three days shows that: call warrant positions were 1,066.5 million shares on March 2nd, rising briefly to a phase high of 1,095.39 million shares on March 3rd, reflecting a temporary rise in bullish sentiment. However, on March 4th, they dropped sharply to 840.95 million shares, with a single-day decrease of 23.2%, indicating strong intentions for short-term bullish funds to exit on the rebound. Bull certificate positions have been continuously declining; they were 257.16 million shares on March 2nd, 246.42 million shares on March 3rd, and further declined to 226.11 million shares on March 4th, with a cumulative drop of 12.1% over three days, showing a continued reduction in risk appetite among bullish investors.
Put warrant positions have also been continuously falling; they were 340.5 million shares on March 2nd, dropping to 272.15 million shares on March 3rd, and further fell to 248.1 million shares on March 4th, with a cumulative drop of 27.1% over three days, indicating a clear reduction in funds betting on a short-term plunge. Meanwhile, bear certificate positions rose for three consecutive days, reaching 98.06 million shares on March 2nd, 104.29 million shares on March 3rd, and climbing to 111.37 million shares on March 4th, with a cumulative increase of 13.6% over three days, reflecting continuous inflows of funds betting on future stock price pressures.
Technical Indicator Signal Interpretation
An analysis of multiple technical indicators reveals relatively clear bullish signals: the Williams %R indicator shows an oversold condition, issuing a buy signal, while stochastic oscillators, CCI, VR volume ratio, and bull/bear power indicators also issue buy signals. Multiple oscillation indicators overall indicate buying, suggesting that downward correction momentum is being released after a short-term oversold situation. Meanwhile, the RSI indicator currently stands at 40, within the neutral zone, and psychological line, momentum oscillators, and rate-of-change indicators also maintain a neutral stance. In contrast, ADX, MACD, Bollinger Bands, and Ichimoku Cloud indicators show sell signals, indicating continued medium-term trend pressure. Nonetheless, the overall technical summary suggests:Strong Buy, with a signal strength as high as 13, the driving force for a short-term recovery has gained a relative advantage.
Support and Resistance Analysis
The current stock's support system is divided into two levels: the first support level isRMB 199. If the stock price pulls back to this position and finds support, the logic for a short-term rebound remains intact; the second support level is165 yuan, which is a strong support level. A break below this position significantly increases the probability of a weakening short-term trend. On the resistance side, the first resistance level is235 yuan, corresponding to the previous dense trading zone. An effective breakout above this level would open up further upside potential for a rebound; the second resistance level is258 yuan, representing medium-term peak pressure. Significant selling pressure is expected near this level.
Operational Signals and Summary
Overall, Pop Mart's current short-term technical indicators suggest an oversold rebound opportunity, but the medium-term trend remains under pressure. The overall technical indicators give a strong buy signal, suitable for professional investors with different styles to reference when formulating strategies: aggressive investors may consider light positions if the stock price retraces to and holds above the first support level at 199 yuan, targeting the first resistance level at 235 yuan; stop loss if it effectively breaks below 199 yuan. Conservative investors can wait to see if the stock price can break through the 10-day moving average at 226.74 yuan. If the price stabilizes above that level, they can participate in the rebound opportunistically. Should the stock unexpectedly break below the second support level at 165 yuan, short-term avoidance is advised. From a medium-to-long term perspective, the current valuation offers some margin of safety, and fundamental data can be analyzed further to assess allocation value.
$POP MART (09992.HK)$ The stock price surged and then pulled back today, closing at HKD 206.4, down 0.29%. The stock has shown significant volatility recently, with a five-day trading range of 13.4%, indicating fierce competition between bulls and bears. From the moving average system perspective, the current stock price is below the 10-day moving average (HKD 226.74), the 30-day moving average (HKD 230.61), and the 60-day moving average (HKD 212.97), remaining under pressure from the moving averages, reflecting a weaker short-term trend. Data on derivative products' street-level positions over the last three days shows that: call warrant positions were 1,066.5 million shares on March 2nd, rising briefly to a phase high of 1,095.39 million shares on March 3rd, reflecting a temporary rise in bullish sentiment. However, on March 4th, they dropped sharply to 840.95 million shares, with a single-day decrease of 23.2%, indicating strong intentions for short-term bullish funds to exit on the rebound. Bull certificate positions have been continuously declining; they were 257.16 million shares on March 2nd, 246.42 million shares on March 3rd, and further declined to 226.11 million shares on March 4th, with a cumulative drop of 12.1% over three days, showing a continued reduction in risk appetite among bullish investors. Put warrant positions have also been continuously falling; they were 340.5 million shares on March 2nd, dropping to 272.15 million shares on March 3rd, and further fell to 248.1 million shares on March 4th, with a cumulative drop of 27.1% over three days, indicating a clear reduction in funds betting on a short-term plunge. Meanwhile, bear certificate positions rose for three consecutive days, reaching...
$POP MART (09992.HK)$ The stock price surged and then pulled back today, closing at HKD 206.4, down 0.29%. The stock has shown significant volatility recently, with a five-day trading range of 13.4%, indicating fierce competition between bulls and bears. From the moving average system perspective, the current stock price is below the 10-day moving average (HKD 226.74), the 30-day moving average (HKD 230.61), and the 60-day moving average (HKD 212.97), remaining under pressure from the moving averages, reflecting a weaker short-term trend. Data on derivative products' street-level positions over the last three days shows that: call warrant positions were 1,066.5 million shares on March 2nd, rising briefly to a phase high of 1,095.39 million shares on March 3rd, reflecting a temporary rise in bullish sentiment. However, on March 4th, they dropped sharply to 840.95 million shares, with a single-day decrease of 23.2%, indicating strong intentions for short-term bullish funds to exit on the rebound. Bull certificate positions have been continuously declining; they were 257.16 million shares on March 2nd, 246.42 million shares on March 3rd, and further declined to 226.11 million shares on March 4th, with a cumulative drop of 12.1% over three days, showing a continued reduction in risk appetite among bullish investors. Put warrant positions have also been continuously falling; they were 340.5 million shares on March 2nd, dropping to 272.15 million shares on March 3rd, and further fell to 248.1 million shares on March 4th, with a cumulative drop of 27.1% over three days, indicating a clear reduction in funds betting on a short-term plunge. Meanwhile, bear certificate positions rose for three consecutive days, reaching...
Product Review
On February 27, 2026, for the underlying asset Pop Mart (09992), a series of bearish derivatives products were previously recommended, including put warrants and bear contracts. In the following two trading days, the stock price fell by 7.48%. $HSPOMRT@EP2606A.P (21787.HK)$ Two days later, it recorded a 41% increase, $HS#POMRTRP2812A.P (64511.HK)$ while another product rose by 50%. $JPPOMRT@EP2605A.P (23040.HK)$ The increase in another product was even more significant, reaching 53%, $UB#POMRTRP2812I.P (65175.HK)$ with another one recording a 48% increase.
$POP MART (09992.HK)$ The stock price surged and then pulled back today, closing at HKD 206.4, down 0.29%. The stock has shown significant volatility recently, with a five-day trading range of 13.4%, indicating fierce competition between bulls and bears. From the moving average system perspective, the current stock price is below the 10-day moving average (HKD 226.74), the 30-day moving average (HKD 230.61), and the 60-day moving average (HKD 212.97), remaining under pressure from the moving averages, reflecting a weaker short-term trend. Data on derivative products' street-level positions over the last three days shows that: call warrant positions were 1,066.5 million shares on March 2nd, rising briefly to a phase high of 1,095.39 million shares on March 3rd, reflecting a temporary rise in bullish sentiment. However, on March 4th, they dropped sharply to 840.95 million shares, with a single-day decrease of 23.2%, indicating strong intentions for short-term bullish funds to exit on the rebound. Bull certificate positions have been continuously declining; they were 257.16 million shares on March 2nd, 246.42 million shares on March 3rd, and further declined to 226.11 million shares on March 4th, with a cumulative drop of 12.1% over three days, showing a continued reduction in risk appetite among bullish investors. Put warrant positions have also been continuously falling; they were 340.5 million shares on March 2nd, dropping to 272.15 million shares on March 3rd, and further fell to 248.1 million shares on March 4th, with a cumulative drop of 27.1% over three days, indicating a clear reduction in funds betting on a short-term plunge. Meanwhile, bear certificate positions rose for three consecutive days, reaching...
Product Highlights
If investors are optimistic about the future performance of the underlying stock, they may consider $HS#POMRTRC2609E.C (57271.HK)$ , which has a recovery price of 181 yuan and offers approximately 5.7 times actual leverage. Its advantage lies in its relatively low premium; another option is $UB#POMRTRC2609D.C (57407.HK)$ , with a recovery price of 180 yuan and approximately 5.5 times actual leverage, making it the bull contract with the lowest premium in the list. Conversely, if the expectation is that the stock price will face adjustments, attention can be focused on $SG#POMRTRP2812R.P (67252.HK)$ or $UB#POMRTRP2812K.P (67830.HK)$ , both having a recovery price of 240 yuan and offering around 6.1 times actual leverage. Among them, UBS Group's bear contract has the lowest premium in its category, while Societe Generale's bear contract also has a relatively low premium.
For investors who prefer equity warrants, bullish options include $SGPOMRT@EC2606A.C (23859.HK)$and$UBPOMRT@EC2606B.C (23647.HK)$Both have an exercise price of 250.19 yuan, with actual leverage of approximately 5.9 times and 5.7 times respectively. Their premiums are relatively low among similar products. For bearish options, there is $GJPOMRT@EP2605A.P (23043.HK)$ and $JPPOMRT@EP2605A.P (23040.HK)$an exercise price of 188.78 yuan, offering about 5.1 times actual leverage. Among them, J.P. Morgan's put warrant has the lowest premium in its category, and its leverage is relatively high. The rationale for choosing these products lies primarily in the leverage effect they provide, along with relatively competitive premium or implied volatility levels, allowing investors to position themselves for potential fluctuations in the underlying asset.
$POP MART (09992.HK)$ The stock price surged and then pulled back today, closing at HKD 206.4, down 0.29%. The stock has shown significant volatility recently, with a five-day trading range of 13.4%, indicating fierce competition between bulls and bears. From the moving average system perspective, the current stock price is below the 10-day moving average (HKD 226.74), the 30-day moving average (HKD 230.61), and the 60-day moving average (HKD 212.97), remaining under pressure from the moving averages, reflecting a weaker short-term trend. Data on derivative products' street-level positions over the last three days shows that: call warrant positions were 1,066.5 million shares on March 2nd, rising briefly to a phase high of 1,095.39 million shares on March 3rd, reflecting a temporary rise in bullish sentiment. However, on March 4th, they dropped sharply to 840.95 million shares, with a single-day decrease of 23.2%, indicating strong intentions for short-term bullish funds to exit on the rebound. Bull certificate positions have been continuously declining; they were 257.16 million shares on March 2nd, 246.42 million shares on March 3rd, and further declined to 226.11 million shares on March 4th, with a cumulative drop of 12.1% over three days, showing a continued reduction in risk appetite among bullish investors. Put warrant positions have also been continuously falling; they were 340.5 million shares on March 2nd, dropping to 272.15 million shares on March 3rd, and further fell to 248.1 million shares on March 4th, with a cumulative drop of 27.1% over three days, indicating a clear reduction in funds betting on a short-term plunge. Meanwhile, bear certificate positions rose for three consecutive days, reaching...
If Pop Mart subsequently retraces to the first support level at 199 yuan, would you choose to enter the market to bet on an oversold rebound, or wait until it repairs to the 10-day moving average at 226.74 yuan before making a move? Feel free to share your views in the comment section.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We assume no responsibility for any loss or damage resulting from reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only indicates whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data, and trading decisions should not be made solely based on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Be sure to follow 'Hong Kong Warrants Jenny' for more professional analysis articles on investment opportunities in Hong Kong stock derivatives!
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Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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