10-day moving average lost and regained: NetEase stabilizes in the short term at HKD 179, mid-term trend yet to recover

NetEase (09999) has recently shown a pattern of repeated stabilization. As of March 4, 2026, it closed at HKD 180.9, with an increase of 0.61%. From a technical perspective, after retreating from its early-year high, the stock has stabilized near the HKD 180 level, beginning to show signs of bottoming out.

Technical Analysis and Support/Resistance Levels

Based on a comprehensive analysis of technical indicators, NetEase is currently in a zone where 'buy' signals are dominant, with signal strength at 9, primarily due to multiple indicators showing oversold signals. The RSI is at 36, still in a weak region but has exited the oversold level; multiple oscillation indicators show neutrality, while the CCI indicator gives a sell signal. Notably, the bull-bear power indicator issues a buy signal, and the VR trading ratio shows 'oversold, possible bottoming,' reflecting that the technical aspect is gradually improving.

In terms of key technical levels, NetEase’s short-term support is at HKD 174.9; if this level is broken, the next support will test HKD 167.4. On the resistance side, the primary short-term resistance is at HKD 191.3, and if it breaks through, the target above can reach HKD 203. Notably, the closing price on March 4 was HKD 181.8, which has regained the 10-day moving average (HKD 179.98), but remains below the 30-day moving average (HKD 193.87) and the 60-day moving average (HKD 205.48), indicating that while the short-term trend shows signs of stabilization, the medium-term trend still needs recovery.

Judging from technical trends and market news, NetEase has recently benefited from the dual primary listing announcement, showing relatively resilient stock performance. On March 3, NetEase received notification from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to switch from secondary listing to dual primary listing as its trading volume in Hong Kong exceeded 55%, with a grace period until February 27, 2027. This transition is expected to qualify for southbound trading starting in September this year or March next year, attracting mainland capital inflows.

Bank of America Securities issued a report indicating that, in addition to the potential liquidity boost from southbound trading, the recent stock price adjustment presents a particularly attractive opportunity for NetEase. The firm believes that NetEase currently benefits from several favorable factors, including limited competitive risks from ByteDance, a likely upward revision in earnings per share forecasts, attractive valuation, and a strong track record of shareholder returns. Compared to the current price of HK$181.8, Bank of America gives a target price of $166 for NetEase's US shares, while CICC gives a target price of HK$265 for its Hong Kong shares, reflecting a positive market outlook.

Warrant Product Review

Reviewing the NetEase warrant products mentioned on February 26, UBS Bull Certificate (68651) and UBS (54593) recorded a 10% increase two days after being mentioned, while the underlying stock rose by 1.31% during the same period. This reflects that bull certificates can serve as effective follow-up tools for investors during a stock rebound, amplifying gains in the underlying stock.

Warrant Product Recommendations and Terms Analysis

For investors who are bearish on NetEase's prospects, the following two put warrants can be considered. UBS Put Warrant (24274) $UB-NTES@EP2608A.P (24274.HK)$ With a strike price of HK$190.78, it offers 3.3x leverage, the highest among similar products, with relatively low implied volatility, making it suitable for capturing short-term pullbacks. The strike price of HK$190.78 is above the current price of HK$181.8, classifying it as an out-of-the-money put warrant. If the stock price rebounds to the resistance level of HK$191.3 and falls back, this warrant’s performance will gradually become evident. $JP-NTES@EP2608A.P (24127.HK)$ Similarly, with a strike price of HK$190.88, it provides 3.3x leverage, the highest among similar products, with the lowest premium and implied volatility, offering better cost efficiency. Its terms are similar to the UBS product, allowing investors to choose based on personal preference.

Recommendations and term analysis for bull and bear certificate products

Investors bullish on NetEase may consider the following two bull certificates. Societe Generale Bull Certificate (54038) $SG#NTES RC2607B.C (54038.HK)$ With a call price of HK$150.5, it provides 5.3x effective leverage, the highest among similar products, with a relatively low premium, highlighting its cost efficiency. The call price of HK$150.5 is far below the short-term support level of HK$174.9 and the next support at HK$167.4, providing a buffer zone of about HK$31.3, offering robust defense, making it suitable for investors adopting a strategy of buying on dips. $UB#NTES RC2612A.C (54539.HK)$ With a call price of HK$151, it provides 5.4x effective leverage, with the lowest premium among similar products, along with higher effective leverage. The call price is also far below the support levels, providing a buffer of approximately HK$30.8, demonstrating similarly strong defensive characteristics.

Summary and Interactive Questions

In summary, NetEase is benefiting in the short term from dual primary listing news, with the stock consolidating around the HK$180 level, and technical indicators starting to show signs of bottoming. Support levels at HK$174.9 and HK$167.4 form critical defensive zones. Market sentiment remains positive, with institutions generally optimistic about future prospects, supported by a rich pipeline of new games. Investors should closely monitor the support level at HK$174.9 and the resistance level at HK$191.3 as reference points for entry and exit. Bullish investors may consider bull certificates with call prices between HK$150-151, which offer extremely strong defense; bearish investors may consider put warrants with a strike price of HK$190 to capture short-term pullback opportunities.

Interactive Question:

Do you think NetEase, benefiting from the dual primary listing, will see its share price rebound to challenge the resistance level at 191.3 yuan first, or consolidate around the 180 yuan level before moving higher?

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data and should not solely rely on this article to make trading decisions. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.

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