Wall Street Daily (March 4): US stocks retreated across the board on Tuesday, with the market experiencing a stampede at one point and panic pricing rising significantly; short-term deceleration signals were clear as crude oil continued to soar

Summary: US stocks came under overall pressure on Tuesday as the four major indexes fell across the board: S&P 500 dropped by 0.94%, Nasdaq fell by 1.02%, Dow Jones declined by 0.83%, and Russell 2000 decreased by 1.79%. Against the backdrop of escalating geopolitical conflicts and growing concerns over energy supply, the market experienced a rapid stampede at one point; it later rebounded from its lows but still failed to turn positive. The VIX rose to 23.57, up 9.93% in a single day, reflecting a significant rise in panic pricing. From a two-week perspective, the short-term deceleration signals became even more evident: DIA fell to -1.96% over two weeks, and SPY turned from positive to negative, indicating a rise in defensive sentiment. In terms of sectors, materials and industrials led the declines, technology remained divergent, and Microsoft rose against the trend by 1.35%, becoming one of the few bright spots among heavyweight stocks. Regarding major asset classes, gold fell by 4.36%, crude oil surged by 5.31%, the US dollar index increased by 0.52%, and Bitcoin dropped by 0.71%. Amidst geopolitical disturbances, capital favored the US dollar and energy-related assets, while high-elasticity assets came under pressure overall.

I. Major Events

1. Escalating conflicts hit risk assets, leading to synchronized declines in European and American stock markets

The conflict in the Middle East continued to escalate, causing significant amplification of intraday volatility in US stocks, with the Dow plunging deeply before narrowing its losses in the closing session; major stock indexes in Europe and Asia also generally weakened, as global markets entered a 'risk contraction first' pricing phase.

2. Trump's comments on Persian Gulf shipping safety ease intraday panic marginally

Trump stated that political risk insurance would be provided for vessels passing through relevant waters, emphasizing that the US would secure energy transport routes. Following these remarks, the market slightly retreated from its most pessimistic scenario, narrowing declines in major indices, though closing levels remained weak.

3. Tariff uncertainty continues to increase corporate discounting

The implementation of a 10% tariff alongside refund litigation proceeds concurrently, with European negotiation rhythms fluctuating, reducing corporate visibility on cost and cash flow expectations. Policy variables combined with geopolitical factors continue to pressure risk asset valuations.

II. Major Trends

From a two-week perspective, short-term deceleration signals are clearer: DIA fell by -1.96% over two weeks, while SPY turned negative, indicating rising defensive sentiment. Over a three-month horizon, the structural main trend remains intact: IWM rose 4.20%, RSP gained 5.95%, both outperforming SPY’s -0.23%, suggesting the rally is not solely driven by a few heavyweight stocks. On a style level, value still dominates: SPYV gained 4.03%, whereas SPYG fell 3.88%. The current phase is characterized by 'short-term risk contraction, medium-term breadth still intact.'

III. Market Sentiment

The VIX rose to 23.57, up 9.93% in a single day, reflecting a significant rise in panic pricing; the CNN Fear & Greed Index dropped to 32 (from 34), showing sentiment sliding further from cautiousness toward fear. Breadth data also appears weak: 1519 stocks (27.3%) advanced versus 3825 (68.8%) declined, with new highs/new lows at 119/272, indicating declines have spread from indices to individual stocks. In options, the Total Put/Call ratio stood at 0.96, with defensive positioning remaining elevated as the market continues to hedge against tail risks.

IV. Market Scan

1. Index ETFsIndex ETFs weakened collectively. DIA fell 0.75%, relatively resilient, QQQ dropped 1.07%, and IWM fell 1.73%, lagging behind. Amid risk event impacts, capital prioritized exiting high-beta and small-cap assets; although blue-chip heavyweights saw some support, they could not remain unscathed.

2. Sector PerformanceSector performance showed 'cyclical sectors under pressure, defensives also unstable.' XLB fell 2.46%, leading declines, XLI dropped 1.93%, reflecting weakening growth expectations alongside cost pressures; XLK fell 1.46%, with high-valuation sectors continuing their pullback. XLC rose just 0.08%, becoming the relatively strongest sector of the day, indicating funds favored more certainty in communication and platform-type assets.

3. The Magnificent Seven Tech StocksInternal divergence among giants continued. MSFT rose 1.35%, becoming the top performer, reflecting quality premium during defensive phases; TSLA fell 2.70%, illustrating deeper retracements for high-beta growth names amid risk-off days. The tech theme hasn’t disappeared, but trading has shifted from 'full offense' to 'leader selection.'

4. Chinese EquitiesChinese concept stocks experienced concentrated pullbacks. BABA fell 4.89%, BIDU dropped 3.93%, FUTU declined 3.29%, KWEB fell 2.74%, JD dropped 2.69%, BILI fell 2.39%, PDD declined 2.05%, while only NTES rose 0.32%. Under tariffs and external uncertainties, funds first compressed Chinese concept risk exposure.

5. Cryptocurrencies and Related StocksBitcoin fell 0.71% on the day, reaffirming its risk asset characteristics. Significant divergence was observed among related stocks: CRCL rose 3.63%, maintaining structural strength, while MARA dropped 8.36%, leading declines amid a retreat in risk appetite and high-elasticity trading. Overall, the divergence between crypto-related equities persists, with higher beta names typically experiencing larger pullbacks.

$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ $State Street® SPDR® Dow Jones Industrial Average® ETF Trust (DIA.US)$ $Russell 2000 Index (.RUT.US)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM.US)$ $Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS.US)$ $USD (USDindex.FX)$ $U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$ $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ $XAU/USD (XAUUSD.CFD)$ $CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index (.VIX.US)$ $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ $BTC/USD (BTCUSD.CC)$ $Ethereum (ETH.CC)$ $ETH/USD (ETHUSD.CC)$ $iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA.US)$ $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ $Apple (AAPL.US)$

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