[HKEX Podcast] Hang Seng Index, PetroChina, HKEX, China Mobile, CCB, Yanzhou Coal Energy - Post-market analysis on March 3

Trend Analysis: Increased divergence between bulls and bears; key technical levels become focal points for positioning

Simon: The Hang Seng Index continued its downward trend today (March 3), with the decline significantly widening, closing at 25,768 points. From a technical perspective, the closing price has clearly fallen below the lower Bollinger Band on the daily chart, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) retreated to a recent low, marking the lowest level since December of last year. Notably, today's trading volume further increased compared to yesterday, indicating persistent selling pressure during the decline – not an ideal signal.

Despite the weak market conditions, investors' views remain notably divided. Some bullish investors continue to focus on bull certificate strategies, believing that the Hang Seng Index could rebound to the 26,000-point level; bearish investors, on the other hand, hold bear certificates and plan to take profits if the index continues to drop tomorrow. This coexistence of bullish and bearish positions is quite common in volatile markets.

Based on a comprehensive analysis of technical signals, the overall market is currently in a neutral state without a clear direction. Although the closing price has broken below the lower Bollinger Band, considering more than ten technical indicators, no definitive conclusion can be drawn for the short-term trend. The expectation is that the market will continue to exhibit a volatile pattern.

In terms of key technical levels, the short-term support is around 25,400 points. If this level is breached, the next support will be tested at 24,700 points. As for resistance, the primary short-term resistance is at 26,500 points. If it can break through, the upward target will be 27,600 points. Investors may refer to these key levels to choose appropriate bull or bear warrant products.

A special reminder: the current market volatility is relatively high, with significant daily fluctuations. When selecting bull or bear warrants, investors should avoid products that are too close to the current price. While these products offer higher leverage, their risk of being called back also increases. It is recommended that investors strike a balance between risk and leverage by choosing products with call prices further away from the current price, such as deploying based on the aforementioned support or resistance levels, in order to pursue returns while reducing unnecessary investment risks.

2, PetroChina (00857.HK): Strong performance reaches a multi-year high, 11 yuan resistance becomes the focus

Simon: PetroChina (00857) showed strong performance today (3rd), diverging from the broader market trend. While the Hang Seng Index fell below the lower Bollinger Band, PetroChina’s closing price broke above the upper Bollinger Band on the daily chart, peaking intraday at 10.61 yuan, reaching a multi-year high. In terms of trading volume, both today and yesterday saw significantly higher volumes compared to the past three months, especially during the uptrend when trading volume increased further, indicating robust buying momentum.

Some investors asked about the resistance level above. The short-term resistance is currently at 11 yuan. If it successfully breaks through, it could test 11.4 yuan. However, it is important to note that the recent upward movement has been rather rapid, and there might be a technical correction in the short term. Investors should take this into account when planning their positions. For those interested in participating in call warrants, the 11-yuan resistance level is worth watching closely.

3, Hong Kong Exchanges (00388.HK): Testing the 400-yuan level, cautious selection of derivative warrants recommended

Simon: The share price of Hong Kong Exchanges (00388) weakened today (3rd), closing at 409 yuan, with notable intraday volatility. Some investors are concerned whether the 400-yuan level can hold. From a technical perspective, the short-term support is at 402 yuan, which is also the lower Bollinger Band on the daily chart. If it falls below 402 yuan, the next support will be tested at 393 yuan.

Despite the weak market conditions, some investors are still considering call warrant strategies. A reminder here: when choosing products, avoid options that are too far out-of-the-money. On one hand, out-of-the-money products might not track price movements accurately; on the other hand, if you buy short-term products that are more than 10% out-of-the-money, once the market reverses, it will put you in a passive situation. At the current price of 409 yuan, there is a batch of call warrants in the market with exercise prices between 418-419 yuan and longer expiration dates (June), making them slightly out-of-the-money options. Products with an exercise price of 460 yuan expiring at the end of May are short-term out-of-the-money products with higher risks. It is recommended that investors prioritize closer-to-the-money products with longer expiration dates, although they have lower leverage, their defensive characteristics are stronger.

4, China Mobile (00941.HK): Anticipation of special dividends, short-term volatility range awaits breakout

Simon: China Mobile (00941) is about to distribute a special dividend, and today (3rd), the stock has shown relatively strong resilience. From the trend perspective, the stock’s recent performance has been rather flat, with its price constrained by the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. Each time it approaches the middle band, the stock tends to consolidate or pull back. Currently trading at HKD 78.7, the price is close to the middle band of the Bollinger Bands.

In terms of short-term volatility range, if we look at a narrow range, it is approximately between HKD 77.1 and HKD 80.3; for a wider range, it lies between HKD 75.5 and HKD 81.9. The level of HKD 77.1 is near the bottom of the Bollinger Bands, while HKD 80.3 is close to the top of the channel. Investors can refer to this range for positioning and pay attention to the stock's performance near the middle band.

5, China Construction Bank (00939.HK): Banking stocks rebound against the market trend, presenting an opportunity for low-position deployment.

Simon: China Construction Bank (00939) rebounded today (3rd), contrasting with the broader market decline. During the session, the stock price briefly broke through the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, closing at HKD 7.95, slightly below the middle band. Since December of last year, the stock has exhibited a wave-like upward movement, with overall gains being slow but the trend remaining stable.

A comprehensive technical signal analysis shows that China Construction Bank currently leans slightly positive, with more buy signals, though not reaching a strong buy level. For support levels, short-term support lies at HKD 7.75, and if breached, the next test would be around HKD 7.55. Investors looking to deploy at lower levels may watch for a potential pullback to around HKD 7.55 and make decisions based on prevailing market conditions.

6, Yanzhou Energy (01171.HK): Year-to-date gain nears 50%, with resistance at HKD 15 awaiting a breakout.

Simon: Yanzhou Energy (01171) has shown strong momentum recently, starting an upward trend after hitting a low of HKD 9.51 in January this year, with cumulative gains nearing 50%. Today (3rd), the intraday high reached HKD 14.89, and although the closing price pulled back slightly, the overall upward trend remains intact, with trading volume increasing compared to previous periods.

Some investors are watching whether the stock price can break through the HKD 15 mark. From a resistance analysis, the short-term resistance is right at HKD 15, and if successfully broken, the stock could further test HKD 15.9. In terms of technical signals, sell signals currently hold a slight advantage, though not reaching a strong sell indication. Investors can consider these signals when planning their positions.

That concludes today’s sharing. Thank you all for listening. If you have any questions, feel free to leave a comment, and we will answer them for you. Goodbye.

Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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