Good news from the Middle East! Trump says a U.S.-Iran deal is largely finalized

港灣家族辦公室

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Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are escalating! The US adjusts its cooperation policy with AI giants, global stock markets are experiencing volatility and declining, while safe-haven assets are gaining popularity.

Global market volatility has intensified recently, with geopolitical factors and policy adjustments impacting market sentiment. Last week, President Trump announced that the government will halt its cooperation with Anthropic, imposing a six-month transition period, raising concerns about the security of the AI supply chain. Meanwhile, the US International Trade Commission (USITC) officially launched an investigation to assess the economic impact of revoking China’s Permanent Normal Trade Relations status, adding new uncertainties to US-China trade relations. Against this backdrop, major US tech stocks closed lower last Friday, with NVIDIA down 4.16%, Apple falling over 3.2%, and the Nasdaq index under pressure, closing down 0.92%. Risk aversion swept across global markets, with gold prices surging nearly 8% for the month, and US Treasury yields retreating…

Hotspot Focus >>>

– The US and Israel launched military strikes against Iran, with reports indicating the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei.

On February 28 local time, the US and Israel launched military strikes against Iran. On March 1, several Iranian media outlets reported that Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei was killed in the related conflict. Subsequently, Iran fired multiple rounds of missiles and drones at Israel, while launching attacks on US military bases in multiple regions of the Middle East, involving countries such as Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

– Closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggers a surge in oil prices

On the evening of February 28 local time, following an attack on Iran, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran announced it would close the Strait of Hormuz, prohibiting any vessels from passing through. The Strait of Hormuz carries nearly 30% of global seaborne oil trade and 20% of liquefied natural gas supplies. Last Sunday's data showed that at least 150 oil tankers are currently anchored outside the strait. According to a March 1 report by Iran's Mehr News Agency, an unauthorized oil tanker attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz was hit and is currently 'sinking.'

– Trump announces the US government will halt cooperation with Anthropic

On February 27 local time, US President Trump stated he will order the US government to cease cooperation with Anthropic Corporation. The Pentagon noted that the company is considered to pose supply chain risks. Trump further indicated that the Department of Defense and other relevant cooperating agencies will have a six-month transition period to phase out ties. If Anthropic fails to comply with the transition arrangements, he will invoke 'presidential powers to enforce compliance, with civil and criminal consequences.'

– Warner Bros. announces Paramount’s new bid favors shareholders as Netflix exits acquisition race

On February 26 local time, Warner Bros. Discovery announced that Paramount Skydance's $111 billion offer exceeds Netflix's bid, prompting Netflix to withdraw from the acquisition competition. The transaction includes $29 billion in debt, and upon completion of the merger, Paramount will gain intellectual property rights to well-known IPs such as 'The Matrix' under Warner Bros.

– US International Trade Commission announces investigation into 'economic impacts of revoking China’s Permanent Normal Trade Relations status'

On February 26 local time, the US International Trade Commission (USITC) announced it will conduct an investigation to assess the economic impact on the US of revoking China’s Permanent Normal Trade Relations status over a six-year period. The agency stated that it expects to release the findings of the investigation by August 21.

Stock market >>>

– US Market: US stocks open lower but pare losses; major indexes close down

January US PPI data sparked market concerns about inflation, while UK private credit firm MFS announced bankruptcy, raising investor concerns about private credit risk. Last Friday, US stocks rebounded slightly after opening lower, narrowing losses, with all three major indexes closing down. Large bank stocks generally fell, with financials and tech stocks leading declines in the US market.

As of last Friday's close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.05% to 48,977.92 points; the S&P 500 Index dropped 0.43% to 6,878.88 points; and the Nasdaq Composite Index declined 0.92% to 22,668.21 points. The VIX volatility index rose 6.6% to 19.86 points. The banking sector led the declines, with regional banks falling over 5%, the overall banking sector dropping nearly 4.9%, and the financial sector down more than 2%.

Last Friday, the Mag 7 index fell 1.83%, accumulating a weekly loss of 2.18% and a monthly loss exceeding 6.5%. On Friday, Google A shares rose about 1.4%, Amazon gained 1%, Microsoft fell over 2.2%, Apple dropped more than 3.2%, and NVIDIA closed down 4.16%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 1.81% on Friday to 7,277.39 points, with a weekly decline of 3.62% and a monthly drop of 5.88%.

– European markets: Last Friday, major European indices were mixed, with the pan-European index reaching a new closing high.

Last Friday, major European indices were mixed, with the pan-European STOXX 600 Index hitting another record closing high. At the close, the STOXX 600 Index was up 0.11% at 633.85 points, gaining 0.52% for the week and rising 3.74% for the month. The STOXX 50 Index fell 0.38% to 6,138.41 points, with a weekly gain of 0.12% and a monthly rise of 3.20%.

Germany’s DAX Index fell 0.02% to 25,284.26 points, rising 3.04% last month; the UK FTSE 100 Index gained 0.59% to 10,910.55 points, surging 6.72% last month; and France’s CAC40 Index dropped 0.47% to 8,580.75 points, climbing 5.66% last month.

– Asia-Pacific markets: Last Friday, major Asia-Pacific stock markets were mixed, with South Korea's index pausing its rally.

Last Friday, major Asia-Pacific stock markets were mixed, with South Korea's index pausing its rally. At the close, Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index rose 0.16% to 58,850.27 points, and Japan’s TOPIX Index gained 1.50% to 3,938.68 points. South Korea’s KOSPI Index fell 1.00% to 6,244.13 points. In other major markets, Singapore’s Straits Times Index rose 0.59% to 4,993.44 points; Thailand’s SET Index fell 0.35% to 1,528.26 points; and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index climbed 0.25% to 9,198.60 points.

– Hong Kong market: Hong Kong’s three major indices all closed higher, with the Hang Seng Index rising nearly 1%.

Last Friday, Hong Kong’s three major indices all closed higher, with the Hang Seng Index gaining nearly 1%. At the close, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.95% to 26,630.54 points; the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.56% to 5,137.84 points; and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index grew 0.51% to 8,859.49 points. Regarding individual stocks, Sun Hung Kai Properties surged over 7%, Wuxi Bio climbed over 5%, SenseTime and China Shenhua both rose over 4%; while China Hongqiao and China Biologic Products fell over 1.5%, and Nio dropped 2.46%.

– A-share Market: Last Friday, A-shares showed divergence, with the ChiNext Index falling more than 1%.

Chinese A-shares rebounded from a lower open last Friday, with the three major indices showing mixed performances at closing. The ChiNext Index fell over 1%. By market close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.39%, reaching 4,162.88 points, with a monthly increase of 1.09%; the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.06%, closing at 14,495.09 points, with a monthly gain of 2.04%; and the ChiNext Index declined by 1.04%, settling at 3,310.30 points, with a monthly rise of 1.08%. In terms of sector performance, rare metal stocks surged broadly due to market risk aversion, with Zhangyuan Tungsten and Huaxi Nonferrous Metals hitting their price limit. Shares in energy sectors such as gas, coal, and electricity saw significant gains; while sectors like computing hardware, semiconductors, and commercial aerospace pulled back. Concepts related to fiberglass and soft drinks led the declines.

Bonds>>>

– US Treasuries: Yields on US bonds significantly retreated last Friday, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling nearly 30 basis points over the previous month.

US Treasury yields notably retreated last Friday, driving up bond prices amid geopolitical uncertainties between the US and the Middle East, causing yields to decline. In late New York trading, the two-year Treasury yield fell 5.51 basis points to 3.3729%, down 10.31 basis points for the week and 14.75 basis points for the month. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped 6.66 basis points to 3.9375%, with a weekly decline of 14.52 basis points and a monthly drop of 29.80 basis points.

– Non-US Bond Markets: Last Friday, Eurozone government bond yields generally declined.

Last Friday, yields on 10-year Eurozone government bonds mostly declined. The 10-year German bund yield fell 4.7 basis points to 2.643%, down 9.4 basis points for the week. The 10-year French government bond yield decreased by 3.2 basis points to 3.217%, with a weekly decline of 8.4 basis points. The 10-year UK gilt yield fell 4.4 basis points to 4.231%, dropping 12.1 basis points for the week.

– Government Bonds: Most futures contracts on government bonds rose last Friday.

Most government bond futures rose last Friday. At market close, the 30-year main contract fell 0.07%, the 10-year main contract gained 0.05%, the 5-year main contract increased by 0.04%, and the 2-year main contract rose 0.03%.

Foreign exchange >>>

– US Dollar: The US Dollar Index edged slightly lower last Friday, with the ICE US Dollar Index falling 0.21% for the week.

The US Dollar Index edged slightly lower last Friday. By the end of forex trading on Friday, the ICE US Dollar Index fell 0.21% to 97.582 points, declining 0.21% for the week and rising 0.61% for the month. The Bloomberg Dollar Index dropped 0.09% to 1,186.93 points.

– Non-US currencies: The US dollar weakened against major currencies last Friday and surged ahead of Monday’s Asian session.

The US dollar weakened against major currencies last Friday but rose early Monday in the Asian session due to heightened geopolitical uncertainty triggering safe-haven demand. By the end of forex trading on Friday, USD/JPY fell 0.1% to 155.95 yen, and EUR/USD rose 0.18%. Ahead of the early Monday Asian session, EUR/USD fell nearly 0.5% to 1.1756 dollars, GBP/USD dropped 0.33% to 1.3435 dollars, and AUD/USD fell nearly 1.1%.

– Chinese Yuan: The US Dollar closed at 6.8625 yuan against the offshore Chinese Yuan last Friday.

In New York trading late last Friday, the US Dollar was at 6.8625 yuan against the offshore Chinese Yuan, up 181 points from the previous trading day (Thursday). The onshore Chinese Yuan stood at 6.8500 yuan against the US Dollar, rising by 92 points from the previous trading day.

– Virtual Assets: The virtual asset market declined last Friday, with Bitcoin prices falling for five consecutive months.

Amid a rise in risk-off sentiment, the virtual asset market weakened. Last Friday, Bitcoin's price fell around 3%, marking a fifth consecutive month of declines before rallying over the weekend. Ethereum dropped more than 5% last Friday.

Products >>>

– Energy: Oil prices surged over 2% last Friday.

Oil prices rose over 2% last Friday, with Brent crude futures settling at $72.48 per barrel, up about 2.45%. Over the past month, prices increased by more than 5.5%. Meanwhile, US crude oil futures settled at $67.02 per barrel, gaining approximately 2.8%, with a monthly increase of over 0.8%.

– Precious Metals: Precious metals strengthened last Friday, with spot gold posting a monthly gain of approximately 7.8%.

Gold:Precious metal prices rose last Friday due to geopolitical factors in the Middle East, with gold prices extending gains for a seventh consecutive month. Spot gold climbed about 1.7% to $5,277.29 per ounce, marking a 7.8% increase over the month. US gold futures gained roughly 1%, closing at $5,247.90 per ounce, with an 11.3% monthly rise.

Metals Futures Market:Spot silver prices surged by 6.33% to $93.83 per ounce, with a cumulative monthly increase of 10.11%. US silver futures rose 7.67% to $94.30 per ounce, showing a 19.28% increase over the month. US copper futures climbed 0.61% last Friday to $6.06 per pound, with a 1.35% monthly gain.

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