Dual attributes of copper and gold, Jiangxi Copper's defensive value at the support level of 41.7 yuan

Jiangxi Copper (00358) has recently consolidated around the 45-yuan mark, with technical indicators showing a mixed picture of bullish and bearish signals, but the medium-term uptrend remains intact. This article combines the latest market dynamics as of March 2, 2026, and technical analysis data to provide investors with a detailed breakdown of Jiangxi Copper's short-term trend, key support and resistance levels, and an in-depth explanation of how to use warrants and bull/bear certificates for precise deployment under different market expectations.

From a technical perspective, Jiangxi Copper closed at 45.36 yuan on March 2, down 0.53%, with the price still within the convergence area of several important moving averages. Data shows that the 10-day line is at 44.79 yuan, the 30-day line at 45.51 yuan, and the 60-day line at 41.97 yuan, with the 30-day line acting as initial resistance for short-term rebounds, while the 60-day line provides medium-term support. According to the provided data analysis, the stock’s short-term support level is clearly at 41.7 yuan, with a more critical defensive area at 40.2 yuan. On the upside, the first resistance level is located at 47.9 yuan; if it can successfully break through and stabilize above this level, the next target will be 51.7 yuan. The probability of an upward move is 0.53, with a 5-day volatility of 8.8%, indicating sufficient room for price fluctuations in the short term, providing good opportunities for short-term trading.

It is worth noting that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 49, with technical indicators summarizing a “buy” signal, with a strength of 9. Several oscillation indicators show a neutral stance: the Williams %R indicator shows a “neutral signal,” stochastic oscillator also shows a “neutral signal,” and CCI indicator is also “neutral.” However, the Rate of Change (ROC) indicator issues a “buy” signal, and the Bull/Bear Power indicator also shows “buy,” while the VR volume ratio indicator similarly shows “buy.” These signals indicate that the stock has certain underlying support at current levels. The Bollinger Bands indicator shows “buy,” while the MACD signal is “sell,” reflecting a mixed technical pattern.

From a market news perspective, the copper sector has been influenced by multiple factors recently. Huayuan Securities released a research report pointing out that post-holiday copper inventory significantly accumulated, potentially capping short-term upside in copper prices, and expects copper prices to fluctuate in the short term. The report shows that this week LME copper/Shanghai copper/US copper changes were +5.16%/+3.53%/+3.25%, respectively, but domestic electrolytic copper social inventory reached 532,000 tons, a significant increase of 50.37% week-over-week. On the supply side, Chile’s January copper production was 414,000 tons, down 3% year-on-year, offering medium- to long-term support for copper prices. In the medium to long term, insufficient capital expenditures in the copper mining sector, frequent supply-side disruptions, and the copper mine supply-demand balance expected to shift from tight equilibrium to shortage, coupled with the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, copper prices are expected to rise. Citi also released a research report stating optimism about copper prices in the short term, forecasting that prices will reach $14,000 per ton within the next three months.

Notably, Jiangxi Copper possesses attributes related to gold concepts, with its core business including copper and gold mining, smelting, and processing. The company produced a total of 88.8 tons of gold in 2022, and as of June 30, 2023, it had produced 55.00 tons of gold. The strong performance of gold prices positively supports Jiangxi Copper’s share price.

Based on the current Jiangxi Copper stock price being in a key support area and mixed technical indicators, investors can deploy products from both bullish and bearish perspectives, but must closely integrate term analysis with the underlying stock's technical levels.

Product selection for bullish direction

If investors believe that Jiangxi Copper can stabilize above the support level of 41.7 yuan and successfully challenge resistance levels at 47.9 yuan or even 51.7 yuan, they may consider the following two call warrants. The first is BOC Call Warrant (21941).$BIJIANC@EC2705A.C (21941.HK)$This product offers 2.3x leverage with a strike price set at 40.9 yuan. It is slightly in-the-money, with a strike price just below the current stock price, making it highly sensitive to changes in the stock price. It is suitable for investors expecting the stock price to consolidate above the 41.7 yuan support level before rebounding. Its main features include the highest leverage, low implied volatility, meaning its price will be relatively less affected by changes in implied volatility, offering relatively 'cheaper' valuation. When choosing this product, investors can target 47.9 yuan as the first goal, then look towards 51.7 yuan after a breakout.

Another option is CCB Call Warrant (29400).$CIJIANC@EC2705A.C (29400.HK)$It provides 2.4x leverage with a strike price of 40.88 yuan. Its characteristics include the lowest premium and implied volatility among similar products in the market, indicating more transparent investment costs. The terms show an expiration date of May 28, 2027, with about 480 days remaining, and daily time decay of only -0.14%, offering strong defensive qualities for medium-term deployment. This product’s strike price is close to that of the BOC Call Warrant (21941) and aligns well with the 41.7 yuan technical support level, making it suitable for investors optimistic about Jiangxi Copper holding above support and initiating a rebound.

Options for bearish positions

For investors concerned that the stock price may fail to break through the 47.9 yuan resistance or may retest the 41.7 yuan or even 40.2 yuan support levels in the short term, put warrant products can be considered. Societe Generale Put Warrant (24820) offers 3.6x leverage with a strike price of 36.5 yuan, categorized as an out-of-the-money product, with its standout feature being the highest leverage. The terms indicate an expiration date of July 31, 2026, with about 156 days left, actual leverage of 3.6x, and implied volatility of 60.82%. When deploying this product, the 41.7 yuan and 40.2 yuan support levels can serve as target references. As the stock approaches these levels, investors may consider gradually taking profits or adjusting positions. The product’s strike price is below the support level, reflecting expectations that if Jiangxi Copper breaks below support, the downtrend could extend further.

Overall, amid short-term fluctuations but a positive long-term outlook for copper prices, Jiangxi Copper’s stock is currently in a critical technical consolidation phase. The 41.7 yuan level is a key short-term support; holding above this level could sustain upward momentum. The 47.9 yuan mark is the first resistance, and a successful breakout could open upside potential to 51.7 yuan. Technical indicators are mixed, with RSI at a neutral 49, while the rate of change and bull/bear power indicators are issuing buy signals, providing technical support for short-term trends. Investors should choose appropriate tools based on their risk tolerance, between bullish or bearish products, strictly set stop losses, and dynamically observe product terms in conjunction with the stock’s key price levels.

Interactive Question:

Do you think this wave of movement in Jiangxi Copper can hold above the 41.7 yuan support and challenge the 47.9 yuan resistance, or will it first retest the 40.2 yuan support level?

Friendly Reminder: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should combine other data and should not solely rely on this article to make trading decisions. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Follow Jenny's insights on Hong Kong stock warrants for more professional analysis.

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