Trump to launch trade investigation, another tariff war on the way?

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US tariff policies cause renewed turbulence; how will global markets respond?

The US Supreme Court ruled that the US government's tariff measures were 'overreaching'; subsequently, US President Trump announced an increase in global import tariffs from 10% to 15%. This series of policy changes has brought new uncertainties to the global market. Meanwhile, after experiencing initial lows, US stocks ultimately closed higher driven by positive news, with all three major indexes posting varying degrees of gains. Additionally, gold prices have returned above the $5,100 mark, and Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has officially taken office… Amidst these intertwined variables, what are the key trends in the global market? A quick overview!

Content compiled by the 'Harbor Family Office' under Henry Group. It does not constitute any investment or trading advice. Stay tuned.

Hotspot Focus >>>

– The US Supreme Court rules that US government tariff measures were 'overreaching,' multiple well-known companies file lawsuits

On February 20 local time, the US Supreme Court ruled that large-scale tariff measures implemented by the US government under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act lacked clear legal authorization. This ruling is expected to limit President Trump’s ability to impose tariffs through the International Emergency Economic Powers Act but will not completely prohibit his power to levy tariffs. Subsequently, hundreds of companies, including Costco, have filed lawsuits demanding refunds for payments made under the tariff measures deemed 'overreaching.'

– US President Trump increased the temporary 'global import tariff' from 10% to 15%.

On February 20 local time, after the US Supreme Court ruled that the previously implemented large-scale tariff measures exceeded its statutory authority, US President Trump immediately issued a new executive order, announcing a 10% temporary import tariff on goods from different countries and regions. Subsequently, on February 21, Trump stated on social media that he planned to increase the newly imposed「global import tariff」from 10% to 15%.

– Sanae Takichi elected as Japan's 105th Prime Minister

On February 18 local time, the Japanese government held a cabinet meeting where members of the first Sanae Takichi cabinet collectively resigned. Subsequently, the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors conducted prime ministerial nomination elections. In both nomination elections, Sanae Takichi received more than half of the votes and was elected as Japan's 105th prime minister.

– Japan fulfills first tranche of investment funds to the US, totaling $36 billion

Japan has completed the first tranche of its promised $550 billion investment in the United States, amounting to $36 billion. This funding will primarily be used for the construction of a 9.2-gigawatt natural gas power plant project in Ohio, with the remaining funds allocated to building a synthetic diamond factory and a deep-water oil export terminal in Texas.

– US-Russia-Ukraine trilateral talks conclude, all three parties indicate certain progress

On February 18 local time, the United States, Russia, and Ukraine all indicated after the conclusion of two days of talks that the discussions had 'made progress.' Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated that all three parties showed a constructive attitude at the military level, but differences remained at the political level, involving sensitive issues such as territory and the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.

Stock market >>>

– US Market: US stocks opened lower but closed higher, with the three major indexes all finishing in positive territory.

The US Q4 GDP missed market expectations, potentially impacted by the US government shutdown, and core PCE data showed inflation was higher than expected, directly causing US stocks to open lower last Friday. However, after the US Supreme Court ruled that the US government's large-scale tariff policy lacked clear legal authorization, the US stock market rebounded, and the three major indexes all finished higher.

As of last Friday's close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.47% to 49,625.97 points; the S&P 500 Index climbed 0.69% to 6,909.51 points, with a weekly gain of 1.07%; the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 0.90% to 22,886.069 points. The VIX fear index fell 5.68% to 19.08 points.

Last Friday, the Mag 7 index rose 1.57%, with Google A gaining about 4%, Amazon up 2.56%, Meta and Apple both rising over 1.5%, NVIDIA up 1.02%, and Microsoft down 0.31%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 0.05% to 7,549.88 points, with a cumulative weekly decline of 0.55%.

– European Market: European stocks generally closed higher last Friday, with the pan-European index hitting a new closing high.

European stocks generally closed higher last Friday, with most gaining over 2% for the week, and the pan-European index hitting a new closing high. Last Friday, the pan-European STOXX 600 Index rose 0.84% to 630.56 points, with a cumulative weekly increase of 2.08%; the pan-European STOXX 50 Index gained 1.18% to 6,131.31 points, with a cumulative weekly rise of 2.44%.

The German DAX Index rose 0.87% to 25,260.69 points, with a cumulative weekly gain of 1.39%; the UK FTSE 100 Index increased 0.56% to 10,686.89 points, with a cumulative weekly rise of 2.30%; the French CAC40 Index climbed 1.03% to 8,515.49 points, with a cumulative weekly gain of 2.33%.

– Asia-Pacific Market: Asia-Pacific major stock markets showed mixed performance last Friday, with South Korean indices continuing their upward trend.

Last Friday, Asia-Pacific major stock markets showed mixed performance, with South Korean indices continuing their upward trend. As of the close, the Nikkei 225 Index fell 1.12% to 56,825.70 points; the Japan TOPIX Index dropped 1.13% to 3,808.48 points. The South Korean KOSPI Index rose 2.31% to 5,808.53 points. For other major regional indices, the Singapore Strait Times Index gained 0.32% to 5,017.60 points; the Thailand SET Index fell 0.95% to 1,479.71 points; the Australia S&P/ASX200 Index declined 0.05% to 9,081.40 points.

– Hong Kong Market: Hong Kong's three major indexes all closed lower, with AI large models and robotics sectors showing strong performance.

The Hong Kong stock market was closed for three days last Tuesday through Thursday due to the New Year holiday. After the Hong Kong stock market opened last Friday, all three major indices closed lower. By the close, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.10% to 26,413.35 points; the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 2.91% to 5,211.50 points; and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index declined 1.22% to 8,959.56 points. In terms of sectors, AI large models, storage, and robotics showed gains against the trend. Robotics gained particular attention due to frequent appearances during the Spring Festival Gala, with ShouCheng Technology's shares rising nearly 12%, RoboSense up 9.24%, and Dobot soaring 21.40%. The AI large model sector performed particularly strongly, with Zhipu closing over 42% higher, HaiZhi Technology Group gaining over 28%, and MINIMAX surging over 14%. Tech stocks retreated, with Baidu falling over 6% and Alibaba declining more than 4%; the semiconductor sector also fell, with Huahong Semiconductor closing down nearly 6%.

– A-share market: Last Friday, the A-share market was closed due to the New Year holiday.

Last Friday, the A-share market was closed due to the New Year holiday. Currently, the Shanghai Composite Index stands at 4,082.07 points; the Shenzhen Component Index is at 14,100.19 points; and the ChiNext Index is at 3,275.96 points.

Bonds>>>

– US Treasuries: Last Friday, US Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year Treasury yield increasing by 3.43 basis points over the week.

Last Friday, US Treasury yields rose amid the impact of the US Supreme Court's ruling on the Trump administration’s tariff measures and the US core PCE index exceeding market expectations. Market attention on increased US bond issuance grew. In late New York trading, the two-year Treasury yield rose 2.07 basis points to 3.4781%, accumulating a weekly gain of 7.04 basis points. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 1.53 basis points to 4.0826%, accumulating a weekly gain of 3.43 basis points.

– Non-US Bond Markets: Last Friday, Eurozone government bond yields generally declined.

Last Friday, yields on 10-year Eurozone government bonds generally declined. The 10-year German government bond yield fell 0.5 basis points to 2.737%, accumulating a weekly decline of 1.8 basis points. The 10-year French government bond yield fell 1.6 basis points to 3.300%, accumulating a weekly drop of 4 basis points. The 10-year UK government bond yield fell 1.5 basis points to 4.353%, accumulating a weekly decline of 6.3 basis points.

– Government Bonds: China's government bonds were closed last Friday due to the New Year holiday.

Last Friday, China's government bond futures market was closed due to the New Year holiday.

Foreign exchange >>>

– Dollar: The US Dollar Index gave back most of its weekly gains last Friday, with the ICE US Dollar Index accumulating a 0.93% gain for the week.

The US dollar gave back most of the gains accumulated in previous days after the US Supreme Court issued a ruling on tariff policy last Friday. By the close of the forex market on Friday, the ICE US Dollar Index fell by 0.12% to 97.800 points, with a cumulative increase of 0.93% last week; the Bloomberg US Dollar Index dropped by 0.14% to 1,189.13 points, with a cumulative rise of 0.66% last week.

– Non-US currencies: The US dollar showed mixed performance against major currencies last Friday, with a slight increase against the yen.

Last Friday, the US dollar's performance against major currencies was mixed, with a slight increase against the yen. By the close of the forex market on Friday, the US dollar rose by 0.04% against the yen, reaching 155.07 yen, with an overall gain of 1.55% last week. The euro rose by 0.06% against the dollar, reaching 1.1781 dollars, with a weekly decline of 0.73%; the British pound rose by 0.14% against the dollar, reaching 1.3485 dollars, with a weekly decline of 1.22%; and the Australian dollar gained 0.14% against the dollar last week.

– Chinese Yuan: The closing price of the US dollar against offshore renminbi last Friday was 6.8978 yuan.

By the New York market close on Friday, the US dollar against offshore renminbi was at 6.8978 yuan, down 24 points from the previous trading day (Thursday).

– Virtual Assets: The virtual asset market trended upwards last Friday, with Bitcoin prices rising by approximately 1.34%.

On Friday, the cryptocurrency market turned positive after several consecutive days of declines. Bitcoin increased by approximately 1.34%; Ethereum rose by about 1.3%.

Products >>>

– Energy: Oil prices were largely unchanged on Friday.

Oil prices remained mostly stable compared to the previous trading day on Friday, with Brent crude oil futures settling at $71.76 per barrel, up approximately 0.14%. US crude oil futures settled at $66.39 per barrel, down approximately 0.06%.

– Precious Metals: Precious metals generally strengthened on Friday, with gold prices returning to $5,100.

Gold:Precious metals prices fluctuated higher last Friday, benefiting from ongoing market focus on geopolitical uncertainties, the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling on tariff policies, and other factors, with gold prices returning to the $5,100 level. In New York trading, spot gold rose 2.15% to $5,104.90 per ounce, accumulating a weekly gain of 1.27%; U.S. gold futures climbed 2.51% to $5,122.80 per ounce, gaining 1.52% for the week.

Metals Futures Market:Spot silver prices surged 7.81% to $84.6396 per ounce, accumulating a weekly increase of 9.31%; U.S. silver futures jumped 8.61% to $84.970 per ounce, with a weekly rise of 8.34%. U.S. copper futures rose 2.26% to $5.9295 per pound, accumulating a weekly gain of 1.60%; spot platinum increased 3.88% to $2,161.98 per ounce, gaining 4.48% for the week; spot palladium advanced 3.22% to $1,748.34 per ounce, accumulating a weekly increase of 3.14%.

[Disclaimer]

The content above is provided by Harbor Family Office (hereinafter referred to as "Harbor Family Office"), sourced from market information gathered from various channels. Neither Harbor Family Office nor its group members participated in preparing the content, nor did they explicitly or implicitly endorse or approve it. This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment or trading advice. Investment involves risks. Readers should independently evaluate and judge this information and are advised to consult professionals before making any investment or trading decisions. Without authorization, no one may reproduce, copy, or publish the content in whole or in part to the public in any manner. Copyright belongs to Harbor Family Office and relevant providers.

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