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How to view the post-holiday market trend in Hong Kong stocks?
港股窩輪Jenny
joined discussion · Feb 13 09:51

[Warrant Perspective] NetEase Under Pressure as Technical Indicators Show Divergence; Warrant Strategy Should Adopt a Two-Way Approach

On February 12th, $NTES-S (09999.HK)$
The stock came under pressure and closed at HKD 187 for the day, marking a single-day drop of 4.10%. The trading volume reached HKD 2.289 billion. Comparing with the trading data from the past five days, the volume significantly increased compared to the previous two days, indicating growing market divergence in buying and selling.
On February 12th, $NTES-S (09999.HK)$ The stock came under pressure and closed at HKD 187 for the day, marking a single-day drop of 4.10%. The trading volume reached HKD 2.289 billion. Comparing with the trading data from the past five days, the volume significantly increased compared to the previous two days, indicating growing market divergence in buying and selling. From a short-term perspective, the share price retreated slightly for two consecutive days. On the previous day (the 12th), after opening at HKD 192.2, it fluctuated downward, hitting a low of HKD 184.7, and ultimately closed near the lower end of the day's range. The overall performance was weaker than the recent average. Based on a comprehensive analysis of various technical indicators, the overall pattern suggests an 'oversold condition awaiting recovery.' A detailed breakdown is as follows: 1. The share price of HKD 187 is far below the MA10 (HKD 194.05), MA30 (HKD 208.86), and MA60 (HKD 211.94). It is currently below all key moving averages in the short term, showing weakness in the short-term trend. However, the long-term moving averages remain relatively stable without significant reversal signs. 2. The current RSI is 32, which is in a relatively low range. Although not in extreme oversold territory, combined with the Williams %R indicator ('oversold status, neutral signal'), the downward momentum of the stock has weakened in the short term, suggesting the potential for technical recovery. 3. The MACD signal indicates a sell, matching the short-term trend of the stock. The momentum oscillation indicator shows a 'bottom divergence, buy' signal. Meanwhile, indicators such as Ichimoku Cloud and Bollinger Bands lean towards a sell. Overall, there is some divergence among indicators, so reliance on any single signal should be avoided. 4. Support...
In the short term, the stock price has retreated slightly for two consecutive days. On the previous day (February 12), after opening at 192.2 yuan, it fluctuated downwards, hitting a low of 184.7 yuan, and finally closed near the lower end of the day's range. The overall trend was weaker than the recent average.
Based on a comprehensive analysis of various technical indicators, the overall pattern shows 'oversold awaiting recovery,' broken down as follows:
1. The stock price of 187 yuan is significantly lower than MA10 (194.05 yuan), MA30 (208.86 yuan), and MA60 (211.94 yuan). In the short term, it remains below all key moving averages, indicating weak short-term performance, although long-term averages remain relatively stable without any significant reversal.
2. The current RSI is 32, in a relatively low range. Although not in extreme oversold territory, combined with the Williams %R indicator showing 'oversold status, neutral signal,' the downward momentum in the short term appears to be weakening, suggesting potential for technical recovery.
3. The MACD signal indicates a sell, consistent with the short-term trend of the stock price; the momentum oscillation index shows a 'bottom divergence, buy' signal, while other indicators like Ichimoku Cloud and Bollinger Bands lean towards selling. There is some divergence among the indicators, so reliance on any single signal should be avoided.
On February 12th, $NTES-S (09999.HK)$ The stock came under pressure and closed at HKD 187 for the day, marking a single-day drop of 4.10%. The trading volume reached HKD 2.289 billion. Comparing with the trading data from the past five days, the volume significantly increased compared to the previous two days, indicating growing market divergence in buying and selling. From a short-term perspective, the share price retreated slightly for two consecutive days. On the previous day (the 12th), after opening at HKD 192.2, it fluctuated downward, hitting a low of HKD 184.7, and ultimately closed near the lower end of the day's range. The overall performance was weaker than the recent average. Based on a comprehensive analysis of various technical indicators, the overall pattern suggests an 'oversold condition awaiting recovery.' A detailed breakdown is as follows: 1. The share price of HKD 187 is far below the MA10 (HKD 194.05), MA30 (HKD 208.86), and MA60 (HKD 211.94). It is currently below all key moving averages in the short term, showing weakness in the short-term trend. However, the long-term moving averages remain relatively stable without significant reversal signs. 2. The current RSI is 32, which is in a relatively low range. Although not in extreme oversold territory, combined with the Williams %R indicator ('oversold status, neutral signal'), the downward momentum of the stock has weakened in the short term, suggesting the potential for technical recovery. 3. The MACD signal indicates a sell, matching the short-term trend of the stock. The momentum oscillation indicator shows a 'bottom divergence, buy' signal. Meanwhile, indicators such as Ichimoku Cloud and Bollinger Bands lean towards a sell. Overall, there is some divergence among indicators, so reliance on any single signal should be avoided. 4. Support...
4. Support and Resistance Levels:Key support levels are at 180.7 yuan (Support 1) and 169.3 yuan (Support 2), with 180.7 yuan being the crucial near-term support. If this level holds, there may be potential for a short-term rebound. Resistance levels to watch are at 199.7 yuan (Resistance 1) and 219 yuan (Resistance 2). In the short term, breaking above the MA10 pressure will be necessary to open up further upside potential.
On February 12, the technology and internet sectors fell broadly, $Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$ dropping 1.65% on the day to close at 5408.98 points. The sector faced short-term pressure overall, with most stocks closing below key moving averages, reflecting cautious market sentiment.
Compared with key stocks within the sector, NetEase's decline was moderate. $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ 、 $TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK)$ The declines reached 4.50% and 3.90%, respectively, with the RSI entering the oversold zone; $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ 、 $BIDU-SW (09888.HK)$ Technical indicators signal a 'strong buy,' while $BILIBILI-W (09626.HK)$ technical indicators suggest a 'sell,' with relatively weak performance and notable divergence within the sector.
Overall, some stocks within the sector are showing signs of being oversold, potentially attracting bottom-fishing capital, but under the current widespread decline, any rebound will still depend on trading volume for confirmation.
Warrant Review and Selection: Put Warrants Shine, Highlighting Two High-Value Products
(1) Warrant Review: Aligned with underlying stock movements, put warrants delivered positive returns
Reviewing the NetEase-related warrant products selected on February 10, their performance two days later closely matched the movement of the underlying stock: $JP-NTES@EP2608A.P (24127.HK)$ 、 $UB-NTES@EP2608A.P (24274.HK)$ Both gained 5% over two days, while NetEase's underlying stock fell by 3.11% during the same period, fully demonstrating the leverage effect of warrants and providing reasonable returns for investors with a bearish outlook, also confirming the advantage of put warrants when the underlying stock declines.
On February 12th, $NTES-S (09999.HK)$ The stock came under pressure and closed at HKD 187 for the day, marking a single-day drop of 4.10%. The trading volume reached HKD 2.289 billion. Comparing with the trading data from the past five days, the volume significantly increased compared to the previous two days, indicating growing market divergence in buying and selling. From a short-term perspective, the share price retreated slightly for two consecutive days. On the previous day (the 12th), after opening at HKD 192.2, it fluctuated downward, hitting a low of HKD 184.7, and ultimately closed near the lower end of the day's range. The overall performance was weaker than the recent average. Based on a comprehensive analysis of various technical indicators, the overall pattern suggests an 'oversold condition awaiting recovery.' A detailed breakdown is as follows: 1. The share price of HKD 187 is far below the MA10 (HKD 194.05), MA30 (HKD 208.86), and MA60 (HKD 211.94). It is currently below all key moving averages in the short term, showing weakness in the short-term trend. However, the long-term moving averages remain relatively stable without significant reversal signs. 2. The current RSI is 32, which is in a relatively low range. Although not in extreme oversold territory, combined with the Williams %R indicator ('oversold status, neutral signal'), the downward momentum of the stock has weakened in the short term, suggesting the potential for technical recovery. 3. The MACD signal indicates a sell, matching the short-term trend of the stock. The momentum oscillation indicator shows a 'bottom divergence, buy' signal. Meanwhile, indicators such as Ichimoku Cloud and Bollinger Bands lean towards a sell. Overall, there is some divergence among indicators, so reliance on any single signal should be avoided. 4. Support...
(2) Product Selection: Focusing on high-value options, prioritizing risk warnings
Based on NetEase’s trend and technical signals, two high-value warrant products in different directions have been selected for investors' reference:
UBS Group Put Warrant (24274): Leverage of 3.5x, strike price at HKD 190.78. Key advantages include the lowest premium and implied volatility, offering high cost-effectiveness. The low implied volatility also reduces the risk of product retracement, making it suitable for short-term investors tracking the underlying stock's movement.
2、 $UB#NTES RC2604E.C (68651.HK)$Leverage of 5x, recovery price at HKD 153, with the lowest premium and relatively higher actual leverage. If NetEase experiences a technical rebound subsequently, this product has strong elasticity, making it suitable for investors optimistic about a short-term rebound.
On February 12th, $NTES-S (09999.HK)$ The stock came under pressure and closed at HKD 187 for the day, marking a single-day drop of 4.10%. The trading volume reached HKD 2.289 billion. Comparing with the trading data from the past five days, the volume significantly increased compared to the previous two days, indicating growing market divergence in buying and selling. From a short-term perspective, the share price retreated slightly for two consecutive days. On the previous day (the 12th), after opening at HKD 192.2, it fluctuated downward, hitting a low of HKD 184.7, and ultimately closed near the lower end of the day's range. The overall performance was weaker than the recent average. Based on a comprehensive analysis of various technical indicators, the overall pattern suggests an 'oversold condition awaiting recovery.' A detailed breakdown is as follows: 1. The share price of HKD 187 is far below the MA10 (HKD 194.05), MA30 (HKD 208.86), and MA60 (HKD 211.94). It is currently below all key moving averages in the short term, showing weakness in the short-term trend. However, the long-term moving averages remain relatively stable without significant reversal signs. 2. The current RSI is 32, which is in a relatively low range. Although not in extreme oversold territory, combined with the Williams %R indicator ('oversold status, neutral signal'), the downward momentum of the stock has weakened in the short term, suggesting the potential for technical recovery. 3. The MACD signal indicates a sell, matching the short-term trend of the stock. The momentum oscillation indicator shows a 'bottom divergence, buy' signal. Meanwhile, indicators such as Ichimoku Cloud and Bollinger Bands lean towards a sell. Overall, there is some divergence among indicators, so reliance on any single signal should be avoided. 4. Support...
On February 12th, $NTES-S (09999.HK)$ The stock came under pressure and closed at HKD 187 for the day, marking a single-day drop of 4.10%. The trading volume reached HKD 2.289 billion. Comparing with the trading data from the past five days, the volume significantly increased compared to the previous two days, indicating growing market divergence in buying and selling. From a short-term perspective, the share price retreated slightly for two consecutive days. On the previous day (the 12th), after opening at HKD 192.2, it fluctuated downward, hitting a low of HKD 184.7, and ultimately closed near the lower end of the day's range. The overall performance was weaker than the recent average. Based on a comprehensive analysis of various technical indicators, the overall pattern suggests an 'oversold condition awaiting recovery.' A detailed breakdown is as follows: 1. The share price of HKD 187 is far below the MA10 (HKD 194.05), MA30 (HKD 208.86), and MA60 (HKD 211.94). It is currently below all key moving averages in the short term, showing weakness in the short-term trend. However, the long-term moving averages remain relatively stable without significant reversal signs. 2. The current RSI is 32, which is in a relatively low range. Although not in extreme oversold territory, combined with the Williams %R indicator ('oversold status, neutral signal'), the downward momentum of the stock has weakened in the short term, suggesting the potential for technical recovery. 3. The MACD signal indicates a sell, matching the short-term trend of the stock. The momentum oscillation indicator shows a 'bottom divergence, buy' signal. Meanwhile, indicators such as Ichimoku Cloud and Bollinger Bands lean towards a sell. Overall, there is some divergence among indicators, so reliance on any single signal should be avoided. 4. Support...
Risk Warning: Warrants are high-risk derivatives with price fluctuations more volatile than the underlying stocks. Investors should participate rationally based on their risk tolerance, and must pay attention to the premium rate, implied volatility, and liquidity before entering, to avoid difficulties in closing positions.
NetEase’s current RSI is 32. Would you choose to temporarily wait, accumulate on dips, or reduce your position first?Come share your thoughts in the comment section.
For more analysis, be sure to follow Jenny's daily updates on "HK Stock Warrants"!
Disclaimer: This article does not constitute any investment advice.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
#HongKongStocks #RealTimeAnalysis #WarrantsSelection #WarrantsStrategy #DerivativesHedging #HongKongWarrantsJenny #NetEase #TechnologyAndInternetSector #TechnicalAnalysis
Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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