[HKEX Podcast] Hang Seng Index, Pop Mart, SMIC, Zijin Mining, Meituan, HSBC Holdings - Post-market Analysis for February 9

: Range trading amid mixed bullish and bearish views

Simon: Today (February 9), the market showed a typical game pattern regarding the future trend of the Hang Seng Index. Some investors predicted that the index would maintain a volatile consolidation within the range of 26,000 to 27,000 points, deploying bull certificate products with a recovery price set at 25,300 points to gain returns in a volatile market. Meanwhile, cautious investors chose to hold bear certificates overnight, basing their strategy on the anticipation of a possible technical correction in the market, expecting the index might open about 200 points lower. They also noticed that there were still many outstanding bull certificates below 26,300 points, which could form pressure in future volatility.

From the full-day closing situation, the Hang Seng Index performed relatively positively today, successfully reclaiming the 27,000-point level, closing at 27,027 points. From a technical perspective, the closing price not only returned to a key psychological level but also stayed above the middle Bollinger Band on the daily chart. Market turnover slightly rebounded compared to last Friday but remained modest compared to the previous active phase, indicating that the willingness to chase gains has not fully recovered.

The current summary of technical signals shows short-term market sentiment is cautiously biased, with 'sell' signals leading 'buy' signals by 10 to 4. The short-term key support area for the index is near 26,500 points, while major resistance lies around 27,500 points, forming an approximately 500-point core trading range. If the market breaks below the 26,500-point support in the future, the next support reference will shift down to 25,900 points; conversely, if it effectively breaks through the 27,500-point resistance, the upside potential could expand to 28,100 points.

For investors using bull and bear certificates to implement directional strategies, the aforementioned technical levels can serve as an important reference for product selection. When choosing products, risk management should take precedence over leverage returns. Typically, selecting products with a sufficient safety margin between the strike price and current price may result in a slight reduction in actual leverage (e.g., from 26x to around 24x); however, it significantly enhances the ability to withstand abnormal market fluctuations and avoids forced recall due to short-term price volatility. Host Simon noted in his commentary that sacrificing some leverage for risk control is an acceptable trade-off, with the key being achieving a reasonable balance between risk and potential return.

2. Pop Mart (09992.HK): Stock price approaching upper channel boundary, focus on key resistance breakout

Simon: Some investors are watching whether Pop Mart has started a new major uptrend and have asked about key resistance levels above. Derivatives market activity shows that some investors are already holding call warrants with a strike price of 275.2 yuan, expressing expectations for further upward movement. The stock has been rebounding steadily from recent lows, hitting an intraday high of 264 yuan today (September 9), closing at 257 yuan, bringing it close to the upper Bollinger Band, facing a technical decision on short-term direction.

From a technical perspective, the immediate resistance level is near 276 yuan, which serves as a dividing line between short-term strength and weakness. A decisive breakout could shift the next resistance zone to 303 yuan. Currently, there are June-expiring call warrants with strike prices ranging from 270 to 275 yuan, offering approximately 4.5 to 4.7 times leverage. Some products provide relative advantages in terms of premium rates and implied volatility, offering tools for bullish investors.

It’s worth noting that despite the strong price pattern, aggregated short-term technical signals still favor “sell” indications. This suggests that after consecutive rebounds, the likelihood of technical consolidation or pullbacks is increasing. Therefore, even though the medium-term trend remains positive, participation through derivatives requires moderate caution, with attention paid to position sizing and managing time decay risks.

3. SMIC (00981.HK): Diverging long and short strategies ahead of earnings season

Simon: As the earnings disclosure period approaches, market attention on SMIC has significantly increased. Some investors are asking if the current rally can push the stock to reach the 80-yuan mark. Market participants’ strategies show divergence: some long-term bulls, aiming to hedge uncertainties during the earnings period, have chosen to buy bearish products, reflecting a 'long-term optimistic, short-term defensive' composite strategy.

The stock price rebounded today (September 9), regaining the HK$70 level, closing at HK$70.3. Technically, the stock needs to first challenge the short-term resistance near HK$74.9; if it breaks through effectively, it may aim for the second resistance at HK$79.2. The current summary of technical signals shows 'buy' signals slightly taking the lead, echoing the long-term optimistic fundamental logic to some extent. However, it’s crucial to recognize that the signal strength is only moderate, and the earnings report, as a significant event, could trigger substantial price fluctuations. Investors using bear certificates to hedge demonstrate risk control measures in response to this situation of 'clear direction but bumpy path.'

4. Zijin Mining (02899.HK): Cautious sentiment behind significant volume-driven gains

Simon: Regarding Zijin Mining, the market reflects typical technical concerns: does the surge in trading volume signal an impending correction? These worries have translated into action, with some investors taking “short positions” by purchasing put warrants with a strike price of 29.9 yuan.

Although the stock (on September 9) closed higher above the middle Bollinger Band with amplified trading volume, market caution persists. Current technical indicators predominantly suggest “sell” signals, indicating defensive sentiment in the short term. The key support level is near 38.7 yuan; a break below this could lead to further downside towards 35.4 yuan. Investors deploying put warrants amid rising prices reflect wariness of weakening technical indicators and traditional patterns such as 'volume surge without follow-through' or 'volume peak signaling reversal.'

5, Meituan-W (03690.HK): Technical rebound opportunity after bull certificate liquidation

Simon: Meituan's movement today (the 9th) triggered technical discussions in the market. Some investors suggested that after the stock price fell, forcing the mandatory liquidation of a large number of bull certificates with stop-loss levels near 89 yuan, could the concentrated selling pressure be temporarily exhausted, thereby creating a technical rebound opportunity? Meanwhile, bearish sentiment remains, as some investors in the derivatives market still hold put warrants with a strike price of 82.83 yuan.

The stock fell against the trend today (the 9th), closing at 91.05 yuan, barely holding above the psychological threshold of 90 yuan, and trading volume increased during the decline. This price-volume relationship is usually worth paying attention to. Interestingly, the summary of technical signals instead provided mainly “buy” signals, even including a “strong buy” indication. This provides some basis for the hypothesis of a “technical rebound.” If the rebound occurs, the first resistance level to watch in the short term would be 95.6 yuan, and if it breaks through, it might test the range between 100 yuan and 103.1 yuan. In the current market discussion about put warrants with an 82-yuan strike price, some products with better terms have relatively low implied volatility and premiums, making them suitable as bearish instruments. However, investors should also note that if the stock rebounds, the time decay of out-of-the-money put warrants may accelerate.

6, HSBC Holdings (00005.HK): Diverse expectations and strategies before earnings announcement

Simon: The case of HSBC Holdings vividly demonstrates the diverse expectations in the market ahead of major events. Investor opinions are clearly divided into two “scenarios”: one believes that positive sentiment could push the stock price up to 160 yuan before the earnings report; the other expects a pullback due to “profit-taking” after the report, with the stock price retreating to around 140 yuan, presenting a good opportunity for re-entry. More aggressive bulls are betting on performance by purchasing bull certificates with stop-loss levels as low as 104.8 yuan, implying confidence in a very solid bottom for the stock price.

The stock has shown steady movement recently, closing today (the 9th) at 139.5 yuan, approaching 140 yuan. The summary of technical signals currently leans slightly cautious, with slightly more “sell” signals. The stock’s recent trading range may fluctuate between support at 134.4 yuan and resistance at 143.4 yuan. The significant divergence in market views and the variety of derivative strategies from cautious to aggressive highlight the wide differences in investor risk appetite and market expectations ahead of the uncertain event of earnings disclosure.

Disclaimer: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis only shows whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive assessment of asset performance should be conducted using additional data. Decisions to trade should not be based solely on this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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