Wall Street Daily (February 6): US stocks continued their plunge on Thursday, panic sentiment escalated sharply, and multiple indicators flashed red; gold/silver plummeted, Bitcoin was cut in half

[Summary] US stocks fell across the board on Thursday, with the S&P 500 Index down 1.23%, the Nasdaq Composite plunging 1.59%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 1.20%, and the Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index falling 1.79%. The market primarily digested three key factors: First, Google's significant increase in AI capital expenditure guidance triggered concerns about return cycles and profit pressures; second, weak guidance from the semiconductor sector cooled sentiment throughout the supply chain; third, weaker employment-related data further dampened risk appetite. Panic sentiment surged, with multiple indicators flashing red, and the VIX volatility index soaring 16.79% to 21.77. Major asset classes weakened simultaneously: gold fell 3.81%, silver dropped 19.65%, crude oil declined 2.09%, and Bitcoin plummeted 14.03% to below $63,000, nearly halving from its October high of approximately $126,000.

I. Major Events

1. Rising AI capital expenditures coupled with weak semiconductor guidance

Alphabet provided a significantly increased AI capital expenditure forecast, raising market concerns that higher investment would lengthen the return cycle and temporarily squeeze profits. Meanwhile, Qualcomm issued a weaker-than-expected quarterly outlook and cited memory shortages as a drag on demand. These two developments caused sentiment in the technology and semiconductor sectors to quickly deteriorate. Capital began withdrawing from high-valuation tech stocks, amplifying index declines as heavyweight stocks corrected, making the tech sector the main source of the day’s losses.

2. Triple labor market hits depress risk appetite

Employment figures delivered a series of negative signals: JOLTS job openings dropped to their lowest level in over five years, initial jobless claims jumped to 231,000, and Challenger reports showed a sharp increase in layoffs for January. These data points collectively indicated a slowdown in labor market momentum, with caution among businesses also rising. Macro expectations shifted toward an “economic cooling” narrative, pushing Treasury yields lower. Simultaneously, growing concerns about future earnings prospects weighed heavily on risk assets overall.

3. Bitcoin plunge drags down the crypto chain

Bitcoin prices plummeted and broke through key integer levels, with clear signs of capital retreating from high-volatility assets. The sharp decline in the crypto market amplified risk aversion sentiment, with mining companies and related concept stocks leading the losses. The downturn in crypto assets and the correction in tech stocks fermented in the same direction, further cooling market risk appetite for the day.

II. Major Trends

Small-cap stocks experienced short-term pullbacks but remained resilient in the medium term. IWM fell 2.30% over two weeks, but it is still up 6.40% over three months; the short-term cooldown has not yet changed its relatively leading medium-term position. Market breadth remains positive, with RSP outperforming SPY over three months (6.05% vs. 2.09%). In terms of style, value continued to show an advantage, with SPYV rising 4.77% over three months, significantly better than SPYG’s -0.27%, indicating more robust and diversified capital allocation.

The divergence among indices was also clear: DIA outperformed QQQ over three months (3.34% vs. -0.54%). Against the backdrop of rising AI capital expenditure expectations and weak guidance from the chip sector, technology faced more pressure. In terms of momentum, DIA, RSP, SPYG, SPYV, and XMAG all showed short-term adjustment signals shifting from positive to negative, with trend trading enthusiasm somewhat subsiding.

III. Market Sentiment

Panic sentiment surged sharply, with multiple indicators flashing red. The VIX panic index closed at 21.77, jumping 16.79% in a single day. The CNN Fear & Greed Index dropped to 33, moving closer to the 'fear' zone, indicating that short-term sentiment recovery will take time.

In terms of market breadth, the S&P 500 saw 93 new highs and 23 new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 218 new highs and 318 new lows. The expansion of new lows indicated pressure on tech-heavyweights and rising concentration in declines. On the options front, CBOE Put volume surged to about 6.402 million, reflecting heightened hedging demand and cautious risk appetite.

IV. Market Scan

1. Index ETFs

SPY fell -1.25%, QQQ dropped -1.44%, DIA retreated -1.18%, and IWM declined -1.80%. Amid multiple disruptions including concerns over AI capital expenditures, weak chip guidance, cooling employment data, and the Bitcoin plunge, market risk appetite contracted. Small-cap stocks suffered deeper declines, highlighting more prominent short-term adjustment characteristics.

2. Industry Sectors

The materials sector XLB fell -2.68%, with gold and silver pullbacks pressuring the upstream commodity chain. Discretionary consumption XLY dropped -2.16%, as weakening risk appetite and softening consumer tech added pressure. The technology sector XLK fell -1.80%, with uncertainty over AI investment and weak chip guidance jointly cooling sentiment. The financial sector XLF dropped -1.24%, as falling yields weighed on bank stocks. The energy sector XLE fell -1.17%, with declining oil prices dragging sector performance. Utilities XLU edged up only +0.05%, showing slight defensive attributes.

3. Seven Major Tech Stocks

Microsoft fell -4.95% after being downgraded, intensifying market concerns over AI competitive dynamics and capital expenditure pressures, leading to concentrated selling pressure. Tesla retreated -2.17%, pressured alongside the broader weakness in tech-heavyweights. Netflix rose slightly by +0.89%, showing relative resilience amid widespread tech stock declines, with funds favoring sectors with higher business visibility.

4. Chinese概念股

Chinese stocks showed clear divergence. Bilibili rose +1.51%, demonstrating relatively stable performance, while Futu fell -2.21%, weakening as risk appetite retreated. Overall, Chinese stocks lacked a single catalyst, mostly following US stock risk sentiment and tech-heavyweight fluctuations, with funds being more sensitive to changes in overseas liquidity.

5. Cryptocurrencies and related stocks

Bitcoin plummeted 14.03% to below $63,000, nearly halving from its October high of approximately $126,000. MARA, a mining stock, plunged -18.72%, highly sensitive to Bitcoin's volatility. Software and AI concept stocks broadly retreated, with Palantir dropping -6.83%. Amid cooling risk appetite, growth stocks continue to face valuation pressures.

$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ $State Street® SPDR® Dow Jones Industrial Average® ETF Trust (DIA.US)$ $Russell 2000 Index (.RUT.US)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM.US)$ $Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS.US)$ $USD (USDindex.FX)$ $U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$ $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ $XAU/USD (XAUUSD.CFD)$ $CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index (.VIX.US)$ $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ $BTC/USD (BTCUSD.CC)$ $Ethereum (ETH.CC)$ $ETH/USD (ETHUSD.CC)$ $iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA.US)$ $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ $Apple (AAPL.US)$

429K Views