Short-term Analysis of Pop Mart: Integrating Insights from the 'BOC Guest' Series and Key Price Level Dynamics
$POP MART (09992.HK)$Amidst the recent heightened volatility in the Hong Kong stock market, Pop Mart (09992.HK) has charted a relatively independent and strong performance. As of February 5, its share price rose by 2.53%, closing at HKD 243.2, while hitting a recent intraday high. This countercyclical performance is no coincidence but rather the result of positive changes in the company's fundamentals, sustained institutional optimism, and specific technical patterns. This article consolidates the latest market dynamics as of February 5, 2026, core insights from multiple issues of the 'BOC Guest' column, and combines detailed technical analysis with derivatives data to provide investors with a clear short-term decision-making reference.
I. Technical Analysis: Examining Key Levels Amid Strong Trends and Overbought Signals
From a technical chart perspective, Pop Mart is currently at a juncture where short-term momentum and mid-term trends are interacting. On one hand, its mid-term upward trend remains solid. The stock price continues to trade above all key moving averages, including the 10-day, 30-day, and 60-day lines, with the moving average system showing a bullish alignment. Trend indicators like Bollinger Bands also signal a buy, confirming that the price is in an uptrend.
However, on the other hand, short-term technical indicators have issued strong overbought warnings. The current 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the stock price is as high as 71, deep within the traditionally defined overbought zone. The Williams %R indicator similarly shows an 'overbought condition,' while the Stochastic Oscillator has triggered sell signals. This divergence between 'upward mid-term trend' and 'short-term overbought indicators' typically suggests that the stock price may soon enter a period of high-level consolidation to digest the recent rapid gains.
Against this backdrop, the gain or loss of key technical levels will determine the direction of short-term trading.
* Core support level: The first critical line of defense is near HKD 218, close to the 10-day moving average, serving as the initial support in the recent period. The more important second support level is at HKD 194, which is near the 60-day long-term moving average and considered the 'lifeline' for the continuation of this mid-term trend.
* Core resistance level: The primary target for an upward breakout is the HKD 255 mark, which was a previous high. If successfully breached, the next strong resistance level will be around HKD 290, a crucial technical threshold for opening up new upward momentum.
II. Market View Consolidation: 'BOC Guest' Maintains Optimism with Recent Catalysts
The recent strength of Pop Mart aligns closely with the optimistic outlook consistently conveyed by the 'BOC Guest' column since late 2025, supported by a series of recent corporate developments.
Niki, Director at BOC International, has repeatedly analyzed on the program that some market concerns about Pop Mart may be overstated. In the January 20 episode of 'BOC Guest,' Niki explicitly pointed out that the share repurchase initiated by the company on January 19 was an important signal of management's confidence and effort to restore market sentiment using real money. BOC International’s research report similarly noted that despite concerns over the waning popularity of Labubu, this IP remains a key pillar in 2026 sales. The firm also expressed optimism about the strong momentum of the company's overseas expansion, forecasting revenue and net profit growth of 32.8% and 37.6%, respectively, in 2026, reiterating a 'Buy' rating.
Subsequently, in the February 3 episode of 'BOC Guest,' Niki further highlighted that Pop Mart’s rise against market volatility was directly catalyzed by significant progress in its international strategy. At the end of January, Pop Mart founder Wang Ning announced at the UK-China Business Forum that London would serve as the European headquarters, with plans to open multiple new stores across the UK and Europe. This strategic move is seen by the market as a critical step in deepening its global footprint and integrating creative resources.
Earlier, in the November 26 episode of 'BOC Guest,' Niki observed that when the stock price had deeply corrected to around HKD 192 from its peak, investors began deploying bullish strategies using both the underlying stock and warrants, believing the correction was sufficient. By December 2, Niki again mentioned that Thanksgiving sales data boosted market confidence, coupled with policies encouraging domestic demand, leading to continuous inflows into its long position. These ongoing insights outline BOC International’s consistent bullish logic on Pop Mart: ‘value emerging after a deep correction, repurchase boosting confidence, overseas expansion creating new opportunities.’
III. Review of Warrant Products: Evidence of Leverage Effects During Market Rebound
Recent market performance clearly demonstrates the efficiency of leverage through warrants and bull/bear certificates when the underlying stock shows a clear trend. On February 3, Pop Mart shares rebounded. Data shows that over the following two trading days, the underlying stock rose approximately 4.49%. During this time, related bullish derivatives significantly outperformed the underlying stock: UBS bull certificates surged 31%, UBS call warrants (22315) rose 29%, and Societe Generale bull certificates (61849). $SG#POMRTRC2608K.C (61849.HK)$ The increase was 27%, BOCOM Warrants (22285) $BIPOMRT@EC2604B.C (22285.HK)$ The increase was 17%. This performance verifies that when investors have a clear judgment on the short-term direction of the underlying stock, using derivatives can achieve more efficient capital utilization.
IV. Current CBBCs and Warrants Product Terms Analysis and Strategy Correlation
Considering Pop Mart’s current complex situation of 'approaching resistance, strong fundamentals but technically overbought,' investors can choose derivatives linked to key technical levels based on different market views for deployment.
Bullish strategy: Betting on fundamental-driven breakout
If investors believe that positive factors such as overseas expansion will drive the share price to break through the first resistance level at 255 yuan, they may consider the following products:
* J.P. Morgan Warrants (23585) and UBS Group Warrants (23598) $UBPOMRT@EC2606A.C (23598.HK)$ : Both products have an exercise price of 275.2 yuan, are moderately out-of-the-money, and provide approximately 4.8 times actual leverage. The characteristics of 'ideal leverage and implied volatility' make them suitable for betting on price testing at the 255 yuan and even 290 yuan resistance levels.
* Societe Generale Bull Contracts (61849) and UBS Group Bull Contracts (61766) $UB#POMRTRC2610B.C (61766.HK)$ : These two bull contracts have stop-loss levels set at 210 yuan, far below the current share price and the first support level at 218 yuan, providing approximately 6 times actual leverage and a higher safety buffer. The terms 'lowest premium and relatively high actual leverage' make them suitable for betting on trend continuation.
Bearish or hedging strategy: Betting on technical pullbacks
If investors are concerned that short-term technical overbought conditions may trigger profit-taking, causing the stock price to retest support levels at 218 yuan or 194 yuan, they can pay attention to the following products:
* BOC Put Warrants (21876) and JPMorgan Put Warrants (21762): Both have a strike price of 209.8 yuan, close to the key second support level of 194 yuan, offering approximately 6x leverage. Among them, BOC Put Warrants boast the advantages of 'lowest premium and implied volatility.'
* UBS Bear Certificates (60288) and JPMorgan Bear Certificates (60145): The forced recovery prices are set at 275 yuan and 277 yuan, respectively, slightly above the first resistance level of 255 yuan and near the second resistance level of 290 yuan. With characteristics such as 'relatively high leveraged price' and 'highest actual leverage,' they are suitable for betting on stock price pullbacks when encountering resistance in critical zones.
Interactive Q&A Session
Based on the collision between Pop Mart's current 'strong fundamental outlook' and 'short-term technical overbought' situation, we pose the following questions and invite all investors to share their insights:
1. Given that the stock price is approaching the key resistance level of 255 yuan and the RSI indicates overbought conditions, do you believe the focus in the short term should be on the opportunity for an upside breakout or the risk of a technical pullback?
2. When participating in stocks with clear trends but short-term adjustment risks, what terms do you prioritize most when selecting derivatives (warrants/bull-bear certificates)? (For example: the distance between the strike/recovery price and key levels, the actual leverage ratio, or liquidity support from the issuer?)
We look forward to your rational exchange and discussion in the comments section.
Risk Warning: The above market analysis and product information are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. Derivative products are high-risk investments; prices can go up or down, and investors may lose their entire investment. Before making any investment decision, ensure you fully understand the product risks, refer to relevant listing documents, and carefully assess your financial situation and risk tolerance.
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Risk Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's view. It does not represent any position or investment advice of Futu. Futu makes no representation or warranty.Read more
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