[Warrant Insights] Meituan fell 4.81% in two days! Put warrants surged over 50%, what’s the outlook?

The stock price came under noticeable pressure, closing at HKD 101 for the day, down 3.35%. The trading volume reached HKD 7.254 billion. As of 11:10 AM today (9th), Meituan's latest price was HKD 98.5, breaking below MA10 (HKD 103.98), MA30 (HKD 101.56), and MA60 (HKD 100.69).Short-term support is seen at HKD 97.1, with further support at HKD 92.9. On the resistance side, initial focus is on HKD 105, followed by HKD 109.1.

In terms of indicators, the RSI is at 46, not yet in the oversold zone, but the CCI indicator signal suggests it is in the oversold zone and recommends buying. Meanwhile, multiple indicators like MACD and Bollinger Bands are issuing sell signals. The overall technical indicator summary signal is "neutral," with a signal strength of 9, showing no clear trend direction.

On the previous day (August 8), our [Hong Kong Stock Broadcast]January 8th [Hong Kong Stock Podcast] Hang Seng Index, Meituan, Bilibili, Sunny Optical, SMIC, BYDincluded commentary on Meituan:The stock’s performance has been less than ideal, with significant drops. Moreover, trading volume increased during the decline, which is higher compared to approximately the last 10 trading days. An increase in trading volume during a downtrend might not be a positive sign. However, one aspect that may provide some comfort to investors is that the closing price remains above triple digits, settling at HK$101. Based on the summary of technical signals, Meituan currently shows no clear direction, neither explicitly bullish nor bearish, with similar numbers of buy and sell signals, leading to an overall "neutral" signal without any strong trend. $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$$BILIBILI-W (09626.HK)$$SUNNY OPTICAL (02382.HK)$$SMIC (00981.HK)$$BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$

In terms of sectors, stocks related to local life services and technology have shown divergent performances. Among companies in the technology and consumer services industries, $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ whose e-commerce and local life businesses are also facing challenges, closed at HK$142.6, down 2.26%. Several technical indicators show a "strong buy" signal, but the stock remains weak; $JD-SW (09618.HK)$ closed at HK$111.7, down 2.02%, with technical patterns indicating it is in the oversold zone; by comparison, $NTES-S (09999.HK)$ showed relatively resilient performance, closing at HK$219.6, down 1.35%, with the technical indicator summary signal being "buy." Additionally, stocks related to consumer services such as $TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK)$ remained stable against the market trend, closing at HK$601.5, up slightly by 0.25%, but its technical indicator summary signal was "strong sell," requiring attention to potential pullback risks from high levels.

Reviewing the recent performance of popular warrants, several put warrants and bear certificates for Meituan expiring on January 6, 2026, recorded significant rebounds amid a cumulative 4.81% drop in the underlying stock over two days. Among them, $HSMTUAN@EP2603B.P (20776.HK)$ The two-day increase reached 67%, $JP#MTUANRP2807B.P (54418.HK)$ A two-day rise of 45%, another one $JP#MTUANRP2808F.P (53743.HK)$ Also recorded a 67% increase over two days, $UBMTUAN@EP2603C.P (21520.HK)$ Which had a 59% two-day gain, clearly reflecting the high Delta sensitivity of put warrants and bear certificates in a falling stock market, with elasticity being significantly amplified.

Combined with the current market situation, we have selected two types of high cost-performance CBBC targets for your reference:

Call direction $MSMTUAN@EC2603F.C (20964.HK)$ , this product has the lowest premium and also possesses a relatively high leverage of 11.8x, offering better cost efficiency, making it suitable for investors who are optimistic about Meituan's rebound to deploy.

Put direction $CIMTUAN@EP2603B.P (20433.HK)$ , not only does it have the lowest premium, but its implied volatility is also within a reasonable range, with leverage at a relatively ideal level of 9.4x, balancing risk and elasticity, making it suitable for investors who are cautious about the short-term market.

Risk Warning:It should be noted that Meituan’s technical indicators currently present a 'neutral' signal, with mixed bullish and bearish signals, and unclear short-term trends. Whether deploying call or put CBBCs, close attention must be paid to the key support level at 97.1 yuan and the breakout situation at the resistance level of 105 yuan. Additionally, time decay can erode value quickly for some short-term CBBCs, so investors are advised to control their holding period and avoid long-term holding leading to value evaporation. For bear certificates, risks near the stop-loss price need attention; if Meituan experiences a short-term rebound approaching the stop-loss price, it may trigger forced redemption, so proper stop-loss planning is essential.

Meituan has fallen below multiple moving averages today, with a technically contentious outlook between bulls and bears. The sector’s individual stocks are showing divergence in performance. Would you choose to position for a rebound with low-premium call warrants, or opt for high-volatility put warrants to hedge against risks?Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comment section! Want more analysis? Don’t forget to follow ‘HK Stock Warrants Jenny’ for daily updates!

Disclaimer: This article does not constitute any investment advice.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market data, opinions, and analysis contained herein may change at any time without prior notice. We shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information in this article. Technical analysis merely indicates whether certain technical conditions are met; a comprehensive evaluation of asset performance should incorporate additional data. Trading decisions should not be based solely on the content of this article. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

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